Barrick Mining falls amid sector weakness and production decline
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 29 2025
0mins
Should l Buy B?
Source: Fool
Barrick Mining Corp (B) has seen a significant decline of 7.78% in regular trading, hitting a 5-day low.
The drop in Barrick's stock price is attributed to a broader weakness in the mining sector, with Barrick reporting a 3.3% decline in production, alongside declines from peers like Newmont and Sibanye Stillwater. Despite J.P. Morgan's bullish outlook on the North American gold sector, which includes an Overweight rating and a $68 price target for Barrick, the stock has not been able to maintain its earlier gains, reflecting sector rotation amid overall market declines.
This decline raises concerns about Barrick's operational challenges and the impact of external market conditions on its performance. Investors will be closely monitoring the company's ability to navigate these challenges and capitalize on potential growth opportunities.
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Analyst Views on B
Wall Street analysts forecast B stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for B is 46.72 USD with a low forecast of 38.00 USD and a high forecast of 55.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
13 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 45.160
Low
38.00
Averages
46.72
High
55.00
Current: 45.160
Low
38.00
Averages
46.72
High
55.00
About B
Barrick Mining Corporation is a gold and copper producer, which is engaged in the production and sale of gold and copper, as well as related activities, such as exploration and mine development. The Company has ownership interests in producing gold mines that are located in Argentina, Canada, Cote d’Ivoire, the Democratic Republic of Congo, the Dominican Republic, Papua New Guinea, Tanzania and the United States. Its copper mines are located in Zambia, Chile and Saudi Arabia. Its operations include Nevada Gold Mines, Bulyanhulu, Jabal Sayid, Kibali, Loulo-Gounkoto, Lumwana, North Mara, Porgera, Pueblo Viejo, Veladero and Zaldivar. Its Bulyanhulu operation is located in north-west Tanzania, over 55 kilometers (km) south of Lake Victoria and 150 km southwest of the city of Mwanza. The Jabal Sayid copper operation is located approximately 350 km north-east of Jeddah in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Lumwana copper mine is a conventional open pit operation.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Newmont Demands Barrick Improve North American Gold Operations
- Declining Asset Value: Newmont (NEM) highlighted that the operational and management performance of Nevada Gold Mines has deteriorated over the past six years, necessitating improvements from Barrick (B) to restore asset value.
- IPO Plans at Risk: Newmont stated that any transaction involving its joint ventures must adhere to protective clauses in their agreements, including transfer restrictions, which could impede Barrick's plans to sell North American gold assets through an IPO by year-end.
- Complex Joint Venture Structure: In the Nevada joint venture, Barrick holds a 61.5% stake while Newmont owns 38.5%, granting Newmont a blocking right in the asset spinoff to safeguard its interests.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although Barrick plans to retain significant control over North American gold assets, the specifics of the spinoff remain undecided, potentially affecting investor expectations regarding future earnings.
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Contrarian Opportunities: Clark highlights that emotional market conditions often present unique investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that are currently undervalued or overlooked.
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TRX Gold: Potential and Challenges of a High-Risk Investment
- Stock Volatility: TRX Gold's stock price surged above $1 in 2026 alongside rising gold prices, yet it currently trades below $2, with a market cap of approximately $465 million, highlighting its high-risk nature.
- Market Competition: Compared to Barrick Mining's nearly $80 billion market cap, TRX Gold, as a small company, faces significant competitive pressure, leading conservative investors to typically avoid such startups.
- Growth Potential: Despite the risks, TRX Gold operates a producing gold mine in Africa, which could lead to profitability if production expansion is successful, although this requires substantial upfront capital investment.
- Gold Price Dependency: The rise in TRX Gold's stock price is closely tied to gold prices; if gold prices decline, the stock is likely to follow suit, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors regarding market volatility.
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Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $42.00 put option is $1.40, meaning that if an investor sells this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $42.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $40.60, which represents a 7% discount from the current price of $45.30, making it attractive for those interested in Barrick Mining Corp.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, the premium would yield a 3.33% return on cash commitment, or an annualized 24.35%, referred to as YieldBoost, highlighting the potential attractiveness of this investment strategy.
- Call Option Returns: The current bid for the $53.00 call option is $0.79; if an investor buys shares at $45.30 and sells this call, they could achieve an 18.74% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the potential profitability of this strategy.
- Risk-Reward Consideration: Given that the $53.00 strike price represents a 17% premium over the current stock price and the odds of the contract expiring worthless are 68%, investors must weigh potential returns against risks to formulate optimal investment strategies.
See More
Barrick Mining Projects 2026 Gold Production Slightly Below 2025 Levels
- 2026 Gold Production Outlook: Barrick Mining expects gold production in 2026 to range between 2.90 million and 3.25 million ounces, slightly below the 3.26 million ounces produced in 2025, indicating a 17% year-over-year decline but still aligning with the company's guidance, reflecting stable production capabilities.
- Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations: The company reported net earnings of $2.41 billion for Q4, translating to $1.43 per share, with adjusted net earnings of $1.75 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.87 per share, and revenue surged 31% to $6 billion, boosting market confidence.
- NewCo IPO Progress: Barrick has received board approval to proceed with the IPO of its subsidiary NewCo, which will hold its North American gold assets, targeting completion by late 2026, potentially enhancing the company's capital structure and market positioning.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Despite strong Q4 results, Barrick's stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading, reflecting market concerns over declining gold prices, with retail sentiment shifting from 'bearish' to 'neutral', indicating uncertainty about future performance.
See More
Barrick Mining Plans IPO for North American Gold Operations
- IPO Advancement: Barrick Mining is moving forward with plans for an IPO of its North American gold operations while retaining a 'significant' majority stake, aiming to maximize shareholder value and potentially narrow the valuation discount relative to peers.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported Q4 net profit more than doubled to $2.4 billion, or $1.43 per share, from $996 million a year earlier, with adjusted earnings of $1.04 per share exceeding analyst expectations, indicating a significant improvement in profitability.
- Increased Gold and Copper Production: Q4 gold production rose to 871,000 ounces from 829,000 ounces in Q3, bringing full-year output to nearly 3.26 million ounces, down 17% from 2024; copper production also increased to 62,000 metric tons, with full-year output up 13% year-over-year.
- Dividend Policy Update: Barrick raised its base dividend by 25% in November and approved a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, with a new policy targeting a total payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow annually, enhancing its appeal to investors.
See More
Newmont Demands Barrick Improve North American Gold Operations
- Declining Asset Value: Newmont (NEM) highlighted that the operational and management performance of Nevada Gold Mines has deteriorated over the past six years, necessitating improvements from Barrick (B) to restore asset value.
- IPO Plans at Risk: Newmont stated that any transaction involving its joint ventures must adhere to protective clauses in their agreements, including transfer restrictions, which could impede Barrick's plans to sell North American gold assets through an IPO by year-end.
- Complex Joint Venture Structure: In the Nevada joint venture, Barrick holds a 61.5% stake while Newmont owns 38.5%, granting Newmont a blocking right in the asset spinoff to safeguard its interests.
- Uncertain Future Outlook: Although Barrick plans to retain significant control over North American gold assets, the specifics of the spinoff remain undecided, potentially affecting investor expectations regarding future earnings.
See More
Three Unconventional "Buy the Dip" Selections—and One Sector to Steer Clear Of
Market Trends: The market is experiencing a pullback, creating opportunities for contrarian investors as many individual stocks are down significantly, suggesting a potential for selective buying strategies.
Investment Strategies: Jeff Clark emphasizes the importance of identifying oversold stocks and sectors, particularly in software and grocery chains, while advising caution against popular trades like gold mining stocks.
Bitcoin Sentiment: Current bearish sentiment around Bitcoin contrasts sharply with previous bullish trends, with Clark suggesting that today's prices may be more attractive for investment compared to past highs.
Contrarian Opportunities: Clark highlights that emotional market conditions often present unique investment opportunities, particularly in sectors that are currently undervalued or overlooked.
See More
TRX Gold: Potential and Challenges of a High-Risk Investment
- Stock Volatility: TRX Gold's stock price surged above $1 in 2026 alongside rising gold prices, yet it currently trades below $2, with a market cap of approximately $465 million, highlighting its high-risk nature.
- Market Competition: Compared to Barrick Mining's nearly $80 billion market cap, TRX Gold, as a small company, faces significant competitive pressure, leading conservative investors to typically avoid such startups.
- Growth Potential: Despite the risks, TRX Gold operates a producing gold mine in Africa, which could lead to profitability if production expansion is successful, although this requires substantial upfront capital investment.
- Gold Price Dependency: The rise in TRX Gold's stock price is closely tied to gold prices; if gold prices decline, the stock is likely to follow suit, necessitating careful risk assessment by investors regarding market volatility.
See More
Options Contract Analysis and Investment Opportunities
- Put Option Appeal: The current bid for the $42.00 put option is $1.40, meaning that if an investor sells this contract, they commit to buying the stock at $42.00, effectively lowering their cost basis to $40.60, which represents a 7% discount from the current price of $45.30, making it attractive for those interested in Barrick Mining Corp.
- Yield Potential Analysis: Should the put option expire worthless, the premium would yield a 3.33% return on cash commitment, or an annualized 24.35%, referred to as YieldBoost, highlighting the potential attractiveness of this investment strategy.
- Call Option Returns: The current bid for the $53.00 call option is $0.79; if an investor buys shares at $45.30 and sells this call, they could achieve an 18.74% total return if the stock is called away at expiration, showcasing the potential profitability of this strategy.
- Risk-Reward Consideration: Given that the $53.00 strike price represents a 17% premium over the current stock price and the odds of the contract expiring worthless are 68%, investors must weigh potential returns against risks to formulate optimal investment strategies.
See More
Barrick Mining Projects 2026 Gold Production Slightly Below 2025 Levels
- 2026 Gold Production Outlook: Barrick Mining expects gold production in 2026 to range between 2.90 million and 3.25 million ounces, slightly below the 3.26 million ounces produced in 2025, indicating a 17% year-over-year decline but still aligning with the company's guidance, reflecting stable production capabilities.
- Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations: The company reported net earnings of $2.41 billion for Q4, translating to $1.43 per share, with adjusted net earnings of $1.75 billion, significantly exceeding analysts' expectations of $0.87 per share, and revenue surged 31% to $6 billion, boosting market confidence.
- NewCo IPO Progress: Barrick has received board approval to proceed with the IPO of its subsidiary NewCo, which will hold its North American gold assets, targeting completion by late 2026, potentially enhancing the company's capital structure and market positioning.
- Market Reaction Analysis: Despite strong Q4 results, Barrick's stock fell over 2% in pre-market trading, reflecting market concerns over declining gold prices, with retail sentiment shifting from 'bearish' to 'neutral', indicating uncertainty about future performance.
See More
Barrick Mining Plans IPO for North American Gold Operations
- IPO Advancement: Barrick Mining is moving forward with plans for an IPO of its North American gold operations while retaining a 'significant' majority stake, aiming to maximize shareholder value and potentially narrow the valuation discount relative to peers.
- Strong Financial Performance: The company reported Q4 net profit more than doubled to $2.4 billion, or $1.43 per share, from $996 million a year earlier, with adjusted earnings of $1.04 per share exceeding analyst expectations, indicating a significant improvement in profitability.
- Increased Gold and Copper Production: Q4 gold production rose to 871,000 ounces from 829,000 ounces in Q3, bringing full-year output to nearly 3.26 million ounces, down 17% from 2024; copper production also increased to 62,000 metric tons, with full-year output up 13% year-over-year.
- Dividend Policy Update: Barrick raised its base dividend by 25% in November and approved a quarterly dividend of $0.42 per share, with a new policy targeting a total payout of 50% of attributable free cash flow annually, enhancing its appeal to investors.
See More
