SAIC Lowers FY2027 Revenue Guidance After Recompete Losses
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 15 hours ago
0mins
Should l Buy SAIC?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Revenue Guidance Cut: SAIC has lowered its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance by approximately 5% due to losses from two major recompete projects, Army Corps and Cloud One, indicating a projected negative 1% growth, which highlights challenges in uneven government funding flows and slower program ramps.
- Q4 Performance Miss: The company's fourth-quarter revenue fell short by about 2% primarily due to January's compression effects and customer shutdowns caused by weather, with estimated losses of $5 million to $10 million from residual impacts of earlier shutdowns, reflecting vulnerabilities in adapting to external environmental changes.
- Future Growth Signals: SAIC anticipates on-contract growth of only 1% to 3% for FY2027, near five-year lows, despite having a backlog of new projects like TENCAP and ATSO; however, the slow ramp-up of these projects may hinder future revenue recovery.
- Strategic Adjustment Direction: In response to commoditization trends in the enterprise IT market, SAIC plans to be more selective in pursuing large DoD enterprise IT opportunities, while emphasizing its high win rates (85%-90%) in non-enterprise IT sectors and continuing to focus on small-scale M&A opportunities to enhance market competitiveness.
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Analyst Views on SAIC
Wall Street analysts forecast SAIC stock price to rise
6 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 83.450
Low
113.00
Averages
122.00
High
128.00
Current: 83.450
Low
113.00
Averages
122.00
High
128.00
About SAIC
Science Applications International Corporation is a technology integrator providing full life cycle services and solutions in the technical, engineering and enterprise information technology (IT) markets. The Company's portfolio of offerings across the defense, space, civilian and intelligence markets include secure solutions in mission IT, enterprise IT, engineering services and professional services. It integrates emerging technology securely into mission critical operations that modernize and enable critical national imperatives, including IT modernization, digital engineering, artificial intelligence and ground vehicle support. Its segments include Defense and Intelligence, and Civilian. Defense and Intelligence segment provides a diverse portfolio of national security solutions to the Department of Defense and Intelligence Community of the United States Government. Civilian segment provides solutions to the civilian markets, encompassing federal, state, and local governments.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
SAIC Lowers FY2027 Revenue Guidance After Recompete Losses
- Revenue Guidance Cut: SAIC has lowered its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance by approximately 5% due to losses from two major recompete projects, Army Corps and Cloud One, indicating a projected negative 1% growth, which highlights challenges in uneven government funding flows and slower program ramps.
- Q4 Performance Miss: The company's fourth-quarter revenue fell short by about 2% primarily due to January's compression effects and customer shutdowns caused by weather, with estimated losses of $5 million to $10 million from residual impacts of earlier shutdowns, reflecting vulnerabilities in adapting to external environmental changes.
- Future Growth Signals: SAIC anticipates on-contract growth of only 1% to 3% for FY2027, near five-year lows, despite having a backlog of new projects like TENCAP and ATSO; however, the slow ramp-up of these projects may hinder future revenue recovery.
- Strategic Adjustment Direction: In response to commoditization trends in the enterprise IT market, SAIC plans to be more selective in pursuing large DoD enterprise IT opportunities, while emphasizing its high win rates (85%-90%) in non-enterprise IT sectors and continuing to focus on small-scale M&A opportunities to enhance market competitiveness.
See More
SAIC Issues Revenue Guidance Revision, Stock Declines
- Earnings Warning: SAIC anticipates fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $1.745 billion and adjusted EPS between $2.30 and $2.50, reflecting procurement delays and unfavorable customer award outcomes, leading to a 12.10% drop in stock price to $86.08.
- Guidance Downgrade: The company has revised its FY26 revenue forecast to about $7.26 billion, down from the previous guidance of $7.275 billion to $7.325 billion, while FY27 is now expected to see an organic revenue decline, indicating challenges in the market environment.
- Margin Improvement: Despite the revenue decline, SAIC expects margins to exceed earlier guidance due to improved efficiency and mix; however, adjusted EBITDA is projected to be lower as reduced revenue offsets margin gains, highlighting a conflict between revenue and profitability.
- Management Outlook: CFO Prabu Natarajan stated that the company will focus more selectively on customer opportunities with potential for technology transformation, expressing confidence in returning to growth with solid double-digit margins over time.
See More
SAIC Releases Preliminary FY26 Financial Results and FY27 Guidance
- Financial Performance Warning: SAIC announced preliminary financial results for Q4 and FY26, with expected revenue around $7.26 billion, below prior guidance of $7.275-$7.325 billion due to procurement delays and unfavorable customer award decisions, indicating significant market pressures.
- Profitability Adjustments: Despite the revenue downgrade, SAIC's adjusted EBITDA is projected at $705 million, up from previous expectations of $695 million, reflecting positive operational efficiency and lower tax rates, potentially laying the groundwork for future profit growth.
- FY27 Outlook: The company updated its FY27 guidance, now expecting revenue to decline by 4%-2%, compared to previous growth expectations of 0%-3%, highlighting ongoing market challenges, although adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise to $705-$715 million, indicating efforts in cost control.
- Strategic Transformation Plan: SAIC aims to enhance investment capacity through a bottoms-up enterprise transformation program, focusing on customer opportunities with technology transformation potential, aiming for long-term sustainable profit growth despite short-term revenue pressures.
See More
Guess, JinkoSolar, and SAIC: Strong Income Stocks to Consider
- Guess, Inc. Earnings Estimate Rise: Over the past 60 days, Guess, Inc. has seen its current year earnings estimate increase by 5.6%, indicating strong growth potential in the lifestyle and apparel sector, which is likely to drive stock price appreciation.
- Guess, Inc. Dividend Yield: The company boasts a dividend yield of 5.4%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.0%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors and enhancing its market appeal.
- JinkoSolar Earnings Estimate Surge: JinkoSolar has experienced a 39.3% increase in its current year earnings estimate over the past 60 days, reflecting robust performance and demand in the solar energy sector, which is expected to propel future growth.
- JinkoSolar Dividend Yield: The company currently offers a dividend yield of 4.4%, also above the industry average of 0.0%, further solidifying its attractiveness as an income investment choice.
See More
Pentagon Accelerates Unmanned Platform Deployment with $8 Billion Budget Approval
- Budget Increase: Congress approved an $8 billion defense budget, allocating $1.5 billion specifically for artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, indicating a strong commitment to unmanned platforms that is expected to drive growth for related companies.
- Market Outlook: The military unmanned systems market is projected to reach $76.05 billion by 2035, with a 10.5% annual growth rate, providing significant market opportunities for defense contractors.
- Technology Integration: VisionWave Holdings signed a letter of intent with Evie Autonomous to explore a £500,000 Proof-of-Concept program aimed at integrating autonomous vehicle technology into its Unmanned Ground Vehicle platforms, anticipated to commence in 2026.
- Acquisition Strategy: VisionWave completed the acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd., involving 1.8 million shares of common stock, which will enhance its competitiveness in both defense and solar operations markets, supporting its multi-domain autonomy strategy.
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Insider Buying Update for Wednesday, December 17: ELAN and SAIC
Elanco Animal Health Insider Purchase: Lawrence Erik Kurzius purchased 10,000 shares of Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) at $21.30 each, totaling $213,000, and saw a 6.4% gain during the trading session, despite ELAN being down 1.7% on Wednesday.
Previous Purchase by Kurzius: Prior to this transaction, Kurzius bought shares worth $211,000 at a price of $10.55 each within the last year.
Science Applications International Insider Purchase: EVP and CFO Prabu Natarajan acquired 2,000 shares of Science Applications International for $200,976 at $100.49 each, with the stock up 2.4% on Wednesday.
Previous Purchase by Natarajan: Natarajan had previously purchased shares worth $219,098 at a price of $109.55 each in the past year.
See More
SAIC Lowers FY2027 Revenue Guidance After Recompete Losses
- Revenue Guidance Cut: SAIC has lowered its fiscal 2027 revenue guidance by approximately 5% due to losses from two major recompete projects, Army Corps and Cloud One, indicating a projected negative 1% growth, which highlights challenges in uneven government funding flows and slower program ramps.
- Q4 Performance Miss: The company's fourth-quarter revenue fell short by about 2% primarily due to January's compression effects and customer shutdowns caused by weather, with estimated losses of $5 million to $10 million from residual impacts of earlier shutdowns, reflecting vulnerabilities in adapting to external environmental changes.
- Future Growth Signals: SAIC anticipates on-contract growth of only 1% to 3% for FY2027, near five-year lows, despite having a backlog of new projects like TENCAP and ATSO; however, the slow ramp-up of these projects may hinder future revenue recovery.
- Strategic Adjustment Direction: In response to commoditization trends in the enterprise IT market, SAIC plans to be more selective in pursuing large DoD enterprise IT opportunities, while emphasizing its high win rates (85%-90%) in non-enterprise IT sectors and continuing to focus on small-scale M&A opportunities to enhance market competitiveness.
See More
SAIC Issues Revenue Guidance Revision, Stock Declines
- Earnings Warning: SAIC anticipates fourth-quarter revenue of approximately $1.745 billion and adjusted EPS between $2.30 and $2.50, reflecting procurement delays and unfavorable customer award outcomes, leading to a 12.10% drop in stock price to $86.08.
- Guidance Downgrade: The company has revised its FY26 revenue forecast to about $7.26 billion, down from the previous guidance of $7.275 billion to $7.325 billion, while FY27 is now expected to see an organic revenue decline, indicating challenges in the market environment.
- Margin Improvement: Despite the revenue decline, SAIC expects margins to exceed earlier guidance due to improved efficiency and mix; however, adjusted EBITDA is projected to be lower as reduced revenue offsets margin gains, highlighting a conflict between revenue and profitability.
- Management Outlook: CFO Prabu Natarajan stated that the company will focus more selectively on customer opportunities with potential for technology transformation, expressing confidence in returning to growth with solid double-digit margins over time.
See More
SAIC Releases Preliminary FY26 Financial Results and FY27 Guidance
- Financial Performance Warning: SAIC announced preliminary financial results for Q4 and FY26, with expected revenue around $7.26 billion, below prior guidance of $7.275-$7.325 billion due to procurement delays and unfavorable customer award decisions, indicating significant market pressures.
- Profitability Adjustments: Despite the revenue downgrade, SAIC's adjusted EBITDA is projected at $705 million, up from previous expectations of $695 million, reflecting positive operational efficiency and lower tax rates, potentially laying the groundwork for future profit growth.
- FY27 Outlook: The company updated its FY27 guidance, now expecting revenue to decline by 4%-2%, compared to previous growth expectations of 0%-3%, highlighting ongoing market challenges, although adjusted EBITDA is expected to rise to $705-$715 million, indicating efforts in cost control.
- Strategic Transformation Plan: SAIC aims to enhance investment capacity through a bottoms-up enterprise transformation program, focusing on customer opportunities with technology transformation potential, aiming for long-term sustainable profit growth despite short-term revenue pressures.
See More
Guess, JinkoSolar, and SAIC: Strong Income Stocks to Consider
- Guess, Inc. Earnings Estimate Rise: Over the past 60 days, Guess, Inc. has seen its current year earnings estimate increase by 5.6%, indicating strong growth potential in the lifestyle and apparel sector, which is likely to drive stock price appreciation.
- Guess, Inc. Dividend Yield: The company boasts a dividend yield of 5.4%, significantly higher than the industry average of 0.0%, making it an attractive option for income-seeking investors and enhancing its market appeal.
- JinkoSolar Earnings Estimate Surge: JinkoSolar has experienced a 39.3% increase in its current year earnings estimate over the past 60 days, reflecting robust performance and demand in the solar energy sector, which is expected to propel future growth.
- JinkoSolar Dividend Yield: The company currently offers a dividend yield of 4.4%, also above the industry average of 0.0%, further solidifying its attractiveness as an income investment choice.
See More
Pentagon Accelerates Unmanned Platform Deployment with $8 Billion Budget Approval
- Budget Increase: Congress approved an $8 billion defense budget, allocating $1.5 billion specifically for artificial intelligence and autonomous systems, indicating a strong commitment to unmanned platforms that is expected to drive growth for related companies.
- Market Outlook: The military unmanned systems market is projected to reach $76.05 billion by 2035, with a 10.5% annual growth rate, providing significant market opportunities for defense contractors.
- Technology Integration: VisionWave Holdings signed a letter of intent with Evie Autonomous to explore a £500,000 Proof-of-Concept program aimed at integrating autonomous vehicle technology into its Unmanned Ground Vehicle platforms, anticipated to commence in 2026.
- Acquisition Strategy: VisionWave completed the acquisition of Solar Drone Ltd., involving 1.8 million shares of common stock, which will enhance its competitiveness in both defense and solar operations markets, supporting its multi-domain autonomy strategy.
See More
Insider Buying Update for Wednesday, December 17: ELAN and SAIC
Elanco Animal Health Insider Purchase: Lawrence Erik Kurzius purchased 10,000 shares of Elanco Animal Health (ELAN) at $21.30 each, totaling $213,000, and saw a 6.4% gain during the trading session, despite ELAN being down 1.7% on Wednesday.
Previous Purchase by Kurzius: Prior to this transaction, Kurzius bought shares worth $211,000 at a price of $10.55 each within the last year.
Science Applications International Insider Purchase: EVP and CFO Prabu Natarajan acquired 2,000 shares of Science Applications International for $200,976 at $100.49 each, with the stock up 2.4% on Wednesday.
Previous Purchase by Natarajan: Natarajan had previously purchased shares worth $219,098 at a price of $109.55 each in the past year.
See More
