Robinhood CEO Optimistic About Prediction Market Prospects
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 2 days ago
0mins
Should l Buy HOOD?
Source: Yahoo Finance
- Sports Prediction Market Growth: Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev revealed during the earnings call that NBA contracts have surpassed NFL in trading activity, despite industry concerns that the end of the 2025 football season could dampen trading volume, indicating the company's growing potential in the sports prediction market.
- Strong Contract Trading Volume: Robinhood reported over 12 billion prediction market contracts traded in 2025, with a record 8.5 billion in Q4; although revenue of $1.28 billion fell short of the $1.34 billion estimate, the earnings per share of 66 cents exceeded the 62 cents forecast, showcasing improved profitability.
- Diversification Strategy: Tenev noted that non-sports contracts are also generating significant volume, particularly the government shutdown contract, which drove substantial trading in the week following the NFL season's end, reflecting the company's efforts in contract diversification and enhancing customer experience.
- Technological Innovation and Partnerships: Robinhood launched a test version of its Robinhood Chain based on Arbitrum and partnered with Chainlink to enable developers to build applications supporting tokenized real-world assets, a move that not only enhances the platform's technical capabilities but may also attract more developers and drive business growth.
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Analyst Views on HOOD
Wall Street analysts forecast HOOD stock price to rise
20 Analyst Rating
16 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 71.120
Low
130.00
Averages
156.24
High
181.00
Current: 71.120
Low
130.00
Averages
156.24
High
181.00
About HOOD
Robinhood Markets, Inc. is creating a financial services platform for everyone, regardless of their wealth, income, or background. It uses technology to provide access to the financial system. Its offerings include Brokerage, Robinhood Crypto, Custody, Robinhood Wallet, Robinhood Gold, and Robinhood Gold Card. Its Brokerage services include investing, options trading, fractional trading, recurring investment, access to investing on margin, fully paid securities lending, cash sweep, instant withdrawals, Robinhood retirement, 24-hour market, joint investing accounts, and event contracts. It also offers a variety of ways for its customers to grow their financial knowledge, including Robinhood Learn, In-App Education, Newsfeeds, Sherwood Snacks, and Crypto Learn and Earn. Its self-clearing system, order routing system, data platform, and other back-end infrastructure deliver the capabilities that allow its customers to focus on investing, saving and spending.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Robinhood Reports Growth in Key Metrics Despite Revenue Miss
- User Growth Notable: Robinhood reported year-over-year growth in net deposits, Gold subscriptions, and total platform assets, indicating a sustained expansion of its user base, although revenue fell short of analysts' expectations, resulting in a sharp 53% drop in stock price.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: The company currently has 11 businesses generating over $100 million in annual revenue, with its credit card expected to bring this number to 12 this year, demonstrating Robinhood's strategy to diversify monetization of customer assets is gradually taking shape.
- New Product Launch: Robinhood Banking has started rolling out to Gold members, with 25,000 customers already depositing $400 million, and the introduction of banking services will provide interest and fee-related revenue potential, helping to mitigate the impact of trading volatility.
- Strong Asset Growth: Robinhood's total platform assets increased by 68% year-over-year to $324 billion, and with the launch of more products, it is expected to attract more assets and enhance customer retention, with significant potential still to be tapped in the future.
See More
Robinhood Markets Outpaces Interactive Brokers with Strong Growth
- Strong Stock Performance: Interactive Brokers saw its stock soar over 45% in 2025, reflecting robust performance in global asset trading, with a 15% year-to-date increase expected to continue into 2026.
- Robinhood's Rise: Robinhood doubled its revenue in Q3 2025, with transaction-based revenue up 129% year-over-year and net interest revenue increasing by 66%, showcasing its strong competitive position in the fintech sector.
- Expanding Customer Base: Robinhood added 2.5 million users in Q3, bringing its total funded customers to 26.8 million, while average revenue per user rose by 82% year-over-year, indicating dual drivers of user growth and revenue enhancement.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With improving market sentiment, Robinhood attracts more investors through seamless trading and fractional shares, likely boosting customer activity and borrowing demand, creating a sustainable growth cycle.
See More
Robinhood Markets Stock Predicted to Decline Further
- Crypto Revenue Plunge: Robinhood's cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell by 38% in Q4 2025 to $221 million, indicating a waning interest in speculative tokens, which could negatively impact overall transaction revenue and lead to further declines in performance.
- Trading Activity Volatility: While Robinhood's transaction revenue has risen due to active trading in stocks and options, its monthly active users dropped by 13% in Q4 2025, suggesting that retail investors are less willing to trade during market downturns, potentially pressuring future revenues.
- High Valuation Risks: With a price-to-sales ratio of 15.9, significantly above the average of 11.5 since its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's current valuation appears unreasonable given the decline in crypto revenue and the risks associated with options trading, which may lead to further stock price declines.
- Historical Trend Repetition: Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue previously plummeted by 75% in Q2 2022, and the current market conditions resemble that period; if this trend continues, the stock could face significant downward pressure, needing to drop 27% to align with its long-term average P/S ratio.
See More
Robinhood Stock Predicted to Plunge Over 50%
- Stock Price Decline: Robinhood's stock has plummeted over 53% since its peak last October, indicating a pessimistic market outlook, particularly as its cryptocurrency trading revenue declines, which could further erode investor confidence.
- Crypto Revenue Drop: In Q4 2025, Robinhood's cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell to $221 million, a 38% year-over-year decline, starkly contrasting with the 4,560% surge in Q2 2021, highlighting the volatility of the speculative market it relies on.
- Decreased User Engagement: The platform reported 13 million monthly active users in Q4 2025, down 13% from the previous year, suggesting waning interest that could exert ongoing pressure on future transaction revenues.
- High Valuation Risks: With a price-to-sales ratio of 15.9, significantly above its historical average of 11.5 since going public in 2021, Robinhood's stock is at risk of further declines, potentially needing a 27% drop to align with its long-term average valuation.
See More
Robinhood Faces Risk of Stock Price Decline
- Dependence on Trading Activity: Robinhood's reliance on active trading by clients in stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies led to a total transaction revenue of $4.47 billion in Q4 2025; however, a 38% drop in crypto transaction revenue signals potential revenue pressure that could impact future profitability.
- Crypto Revenue Plummet: In Q2 2021, Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue surged by 4,560% year-over-year, but by Q2 2022, it had plummeted by 75%, highlighting the company's vulnerability to market fluctuations, which could lead to further declines in stock price.
- Declining User Engagement: In Q4 2025, Robinhood reported 13 million monthly active users, a 13% decrease from the previous year, indicating that reduced customer engagement may negatively affect transaction revenue and increase uncertainty in future financial performance.
- Increased Valuation Pressure: With a price-to-sales ratio of 15.9, significantly above the average of 11.5 since its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's stock may need to decline by 27% to align with its long-term average, reflecting market concerns about its growth prospects amid declining crypto revenue and user activity.
See More
Robinhood Reports Growth Amid Revenue Miss
- Key Operating Metrics Growth: Robinhood posted year-over-year growth in net deposits, Gold subscriptions, and total platform assets, yet revenue fell short of analysts' expectations, causing the stock to drop sharply, now trading 53% below its 52-week high.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: The company currently has 11 products generating over $100 million in annual revenue, with its credit card expected to bring that number to 12 this year, providing multiple avenues for monetizing customer assets and enhancing long-term growth potential.
- Banking Service Rollout: Robinhood Banking has begun rolling out to Gold members, with 25,000 customers already depositing $400 million, offering interest and fee-related revenue potential that can help mitigate the impact of trading volatility.
- Significant Asset Growth: Robinhood's total platform assets increased 68% year-over-year to $324 billion, and as more products are introduced, it is expected to attract more assets and improve customer retention, with further potential yet to be tapped.
See More
Robinhood Reports Growth in Key Metrics Despite Revenue Miss
- User Growth Notable: Robinhood reported year-over-year growth in net deposits, Gold subscriptions, and total platform assets, indicating a sustained expansion of its user base, although revenue fell short of analysts' expectations, resulting in a sharp 53% drop in stock price.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: The company currently has 11 businesses generating over $100 million in annual revenue, with its credit card expected to bring this number to 12 this year, demonstrating Robinhood's strategy to diversify monetization of customer assets is gradually taking shape.
- New Product Launch: Robinhood Banking has started rolling out to Gold members, with 25,000 customers already depositing $400 million, and the introduction of banking services will provide interest and fee-related revenue potential, helping to mitigate the impact of trading volatility.
- Strong Asset Growth: Robinhood's total platform assets increased by 68% year-over-year to $324 billion, and with the launch of more products, it is expected to attract more assets and enhance customer retention, with significant potential still to be tapped in the future.
See More
Robinhood Markets Outpaces Interactive Brokers with Strong Growth
- Strong Stock Performance: Interactive Brokers saw its stock soar over 45% in 2025, reflecting robust performance in global asset trading, with a 15% year-to-date increase expected to continue into 2026.
- Robinhood's Rise: Robinhood doubled its revenue in Q3 2025, with transaction-based revenue up 129% year-over-year and net interest revenue increasing by 66%, showcasing its strong competitive position in the fintech sector.
- Expanding Customer Base: Robinhood added 2.5 million users in Q3, bringing its total funded customers to 26.8 million, while average revenue per user rose by 82% year-over-year, indicating dual drivers of user growth and revenue enhancement.
- Optimistic Market Outlook: With improving market sentiment, Robinhood attracts more investors through seamless trading and fractional shares, likely boosting customer activity and borrowing demand, creating a sustainable growth cycle.
See More
Robinhood Markets Stock Predicted to Decline Further
- Crypto Revenue Plunge: Robinhood's cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell by 38% in Q4 2025 to $221 million, indicating a waning interest in speculative tokens, which could negatively impact overall transaction revenue and lead to further declines in performance.
- Trading Activity Volatility: While Robinhood's transaction revenue has risen due to active trading in stocks and options, its monthly active users dropped by 13% in Q4 2025, suggesting that retail investors are less willing to trade during market downturns, potentially pressuring future revenues.
- High Valuation Risks: With a price-to-sales ratio of 15.9, significantly above the average of 11.5 since its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's current valuation appears unreasonable given the decline in crypto revenue and the risks associated with options trading, which may lead to further stock price declines.
- Historical Trend Repetition: Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue previously plummeted by 75% in Q2 2022, and the current market conditions resemble that period; if this trend continues, the stock could face significant downward pressure, needing to drop 27% to align with its long-term average P/S ratio.
See More
Robinhood Stock Predicted to Plunge Over 50%
- Stock Price Decline: Robinhood's stock has plummeted over 53% since its peak last October, indicating a pessimistic market outlook, particularly as its cryptocurrency trading revenue declines, which could further erode investor confidence.
- Crypto Revenue Drop: In Q4 2025, Robinhood's cryptocurrency transaction revenue fell to $221 million, a 38% year-over-year decline, starkly contrasting with the 4,560% surge in Q2 2021, highlighting the volatility of the speculative market it relies on.
- Decreased User Engagement: The platform reported 13 million monthly active users in Q4 2025, down 13% from the previous year, suggesting waning interest that could exert ongoing pressure on future transaction revenues.
- High Valuation Risks: With a price-to-sales ratio of 15.9, significantly above its historical average of 11.5 since going public in 2021, Robinhood's stock is at risk of further declines, potentially needing a 27% drop to align with its long-term average valuation.
See More
Robinhood Faces Risk of Stock Price Decline
- Dependence on Trading Activity: Robinhood's reliance on active trading by clients in stocks, options, and cryptocurrencies led to a total transaction revenue of $4.47 billion in Q4 2025; however, a 38% drop in crypto transaction revenue signals potential revenue pressure that could impact future profitability.
- Crypto Revenue Plummet: In Q2 2021, Robinhood's crypto transaction revenue surged by 4,560% year-over-year, but by Q2 2022, it had plummeted by 75%, highlighting the company's vulnerability to market fluctuations, which could lead to further declines in stock price.
- Declining User Engagement: In Q4 2025, Robinhood reported 13 million monthly active users, a 13% decrease from the previous year, indicating that reduced customer engagement may negatively affect transaction revenue and increase uncertainty in future financial performance.
- Increased Valuation Pressure: With a price-to-sales ratio of 15.9, significantly above the average of 11.5 since its IPO in 2021, Robinhood's stock may need to decline by 27% to align with its long-term average, reflecting market concerns about its growth prospects amid declining crypto revenue and user activity.
See More
Robinhood Reports Growth Amid Revenue Miss
- Key Operating Metrics Growth: Robinhood posted year-over-year growth in net deposits, Gold subscriptions, and total platform assets, yet revenue fell short of analysts' expectations, causing the stock to drop sharply, now trading 53% below its 52-week high.
- Diversified Revenue Streams: The company currently has 11 products generating over $100 million in annual revenue, with its credit card expected to bring that number to 12 this year, providing multiple avenues for monetizing customer assets and enhancing long-term growth potential.
- Banking Service Rollout: Robinhood Banking has begun rolling out to Gold members, with 25,000 customers already depositing $400 million, offering interest and fee-related revenue potential that can help mitigate the impact of trading volatility.
- Significant Asset Growth: Robinhood's total platform assets increased 68% year-over-year to $324 billion, and as more products are introduced, it is expected to attract more assets and improve customer retention, with further potential yet to be tapped.
See More
