Recent Developments Transforming Certara's Leadership in Biosimulation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 06 2025
0mins
Should l Buy CERT?
Source: Yahoo Finance
Fair Value Update: Certara's fair value has been slightly adjusted to approximately $13.21 per share, reflecting more cautious revenue growth expectations and a marginally lower discount rate, indicating reduced perceived risk.
Analyst Ratings: Rothschild & Co and Craig Hallum initiated coverage with Buy ratings, highlighting Certara's leadership in biosimulation and its potential for growth, while some analysts remain cautious due to lower service bookings and trimmed price targets.
Revenue Guidance and Share Repurchase: Certara provided 2025 revenue guidance of $415M to $420M and completed a share repurchase program, signaling management's confidence in the company's long-term value.
AI Innovations: The company launched TFL Studio and Certara IQ, new AI-powered platforms aimed at enhancing efficiency in drug development and regulatory submissions, which could drive future revenue growth and margin expansion.
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Analyst Views on CERT
Wall Street analysts forecast CERT stock price to rise
11 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 6.670
Low
9.00
Averages
12.11
High
16.00
Current: 6.670
Low
9.00
Averages
12.11
High
16.00
About CERT
Certara, Inc. is a provider of biosimulation technology and solutions for using Model-Informed Drug Development (MIDD) in the global biopharmaceutical industry. It accelerates medicine using biosimulation software, technology and services to transform traditional drug discovery and development. It delivers software products and technology-driven services to customers to carry out and realize the full benefits of biosimulation in drug discovery, preclinical and clinical research, regulatory submissions and market access. Its regulatory science and market access software and services, such as regulatory submissions software, natural language processing and Bayesian analytics. It offers both mechanistic and empirical biosimulation solutions providing clients with a comprehensive offering based on their therapy goals, mechanism of action, and available data sources. Its clients include 2,400 biopharmaceutical companies, academic institutions and regulatory agencies across 70 countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Oversold Stocks in Healthcare Sector Present Buying Opportunities
- Oversold Stocks Overview: In the healthcare sector, Zai Lab Ltd (NASDAQ:ZLAB), Vivos Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:VVOS), and Certara Inc (NASDAQ:CERT) are identified as oversold stocks, with RSI near or below 30, indicating potential for short-term rebounds.
- RSI Indicator Analysis: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a momentum indicator by comparing the strength of a stock on days it rises versus days it falls, helping traders assess short-term performance, with an RSI below 30 typically indicating oversold conditions.
- Investment Opportunity Assessment: In the current market environment, oversold stocks may present buying opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on undervalued companies, particularly in the healthcare sector, where sentiment shifts could lead to value recovery.
- Market Data Source: This information is based on data from Benzinga Pro, providing the latest list of oversold stocks in the healthcare sector to assist investors in identifying potential investment opportunities.
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Certara Announces Q4 and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Release
- Earnings Release Schedule: Certara will release its financial results for Q4 and the full year of 2025 before market open on February 26, 2026, providing investors with critical performance data and future outlook.
- Conference Call Details: Company management will host a conference call at 8:30 AM ET to discuss the financial results, requiring investors to register online in advance to ensure timely information dissemination.
- Webcast Availability: The event will feature both live and archived webcasts, accessible through the 'Investors' section of Certara's website, enhancing transparency and ease of information access for stakeholders.
- Broad Client Base: Certara serves over 2,600 biopharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, and regulatory agencies across 70 countries, demonstrating its global influence and market leadership in drug development.
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Cerrado Gold Completes Gold Hedge, Shifts to 100% Near-Spot Sales
- Gold Hedge Completion: Cerrado Gold concluded its gold hedging program on January 15, 2026, eliminating the previous ceiling of $3,250/oz, allowing the company to sell gold at near-spot prices, which significantly enhances profitability and free cash flow.
- Share Buyback Initiative: The company has proposed a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to repurchase up to 6,794,790 common shares, representing approximately 5% of its outstanding shares, aimed at leveraging strong gold prices to increase net asset value per share and enhance shareholder ownership.
- Cash Flow Management: Cerrado Gold plans to utilize excess cash from gold sales above budgeted prices for share buybacks without impacting current growth plans, ensuring a strong cash balance at the end of 2026, thereby providing higher returns to shareholders.
- Project Investment Progress: Following the completion of the gold hedge, the company will continue advancing key investments, including the underground mine and Lagoa Salgada and Mont Sorcier projects, further optimizing asset value and improving overall financial health.
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Certara (CERT) Shares Rise 4.4% Following Leerink Partners Upgrade
- Stock Price Increase: Certara's shares rose 4.4% in recent trading, primarily due to an upgrade from Leerink Partners, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future performance.
- Positive Market Reaction: Upgrades typically boost investor confidence, leading to stock price increases, and Certara's rebound indicates investor recognition of its business prospects.
- Analyst Support: The upgrade from Leerink Partners may attract more institutional investors to Certara, further enhancing its market position and liquidity.
- Strategic Implications: This upgrade not only enhances Certara's market image but may also provide more favorable conditions for future financing and business expansion.
See More
Kopion Asset Management Buys 327,064 Shares of Certara for $3.37 Million
- Share Acquisition: Kopion Asset Management disclosed the purchase of 327,064 shares of Certara during the quarter ending December 31, representing an estimated transaction value of $3.37 million, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential.
- Increased Stake: Certara now constitutes 6.19% of Kopion's reportable U.S. equity AUM, highlighting its growing significance in the portfolio, which may influence future investment decisions.
- Market Performance Analysis: Despite an 18% decline in Certara's stock price over the past year, the company reported a 10% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, with software revenue up 22%, demonstrating sustained demand and resilience in the drug development sector.
- Investment Strategy Adjustment: Kopion's decision to increase its stake reflects a strategy of seeking defensive investments in volatile markets, as Certara's biosimulation software and regulatory services have high switching costs, ensuring persistent market demand.
See More
Kopion Asset Management Acquires 327,064 Certara Shares for $3.37 Million
- Share Acquisition: Kopion Asset Management added 327,064 shares of Certara in Q4, with an estimated transaction size of $3.37 million, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential.
- Value Increase: The value of Certara's position rose by $645,681 over the quarter, indicating a positive market response to both new purchases and price appreciation, which underscores investor confidence in its business outlook.
- Asset Allocation: As of December 31, Kopion held a total of 982,710 shares of Certara worth $8.66 million, representing 6.19% of its reportable U.S. equity AUM, highlighting its significance in the investment portfolio.
- Market Performance: Despite Certara's stock price declining 18% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 34.5 percentage points, its competitive advantages in biosimulation and regulatory services continue to attract long-term investors.
See More
Oversold Stocks in Healthcare Sector Present Buying Opportunities
- Oversold Stocks Overview: In the healthcare sector, Zai Lab Ltd (NASDAQ:ZLAB), Vivos Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:VVOS), and Certara Inc (NASDAQ:CERT) are identified as oversold stocks, with RSI near or below 30, indicating potential for short-term rebounds.
- RSI Indicator Analysis: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) serves as a momentum indicator by comparing the strength of a stock on days it rises versus days it falls, helping traders assess short-term performance, with an RSI below 30 typically indicating oversold conditions.
- Investment Opportunity Assessment: In the current market environment, oversold stocks may present buying opportunities for investors looking to capitalize on undervalued companies, particularly in the healthcare sector, where sentiment shifts could lead to value recovery.
- Market Data Source: This information is based on data from Benzinga Pro, providing the latest list of oversold stocks in the healthcare sector to assist investors in identifying potential investment opportunities.
See More
Certara Announces Q4 and Full Year 2025 Financial Results Release
- Earnings Release Schedule: Certara will release its financial results for Q4 and the full year of 2025 before market open on February 26, 2026, providing investors with critical performance data and future outlook.
- Conference Call Details: Company management will host a conference call at 8:30 AM ET to discuss the financial results, requiring investors to register online in advance to ensure timely information dissemination.
- Webcast Availability: The event will feature both live and archived webcasts, accessible through the 'Investors' section of Certara's website, enhancing transparency and ease of information access for stakeholders.
- Broad Client Base: Certara serves over 2,600 biopharmaceutical companies, academic institutions, and regulatory agencies across 70 countries, demonstrating its global influence and market leadership in drug development.
See More
Cerrado Gold Completes Gold Hedge, Shifts to 100% Near-Spot Sales
- Gold Hedge Completion: Cerrado Gold concluded its gold hedging program on January 15, 2026, eliminating the previous ceiling of $3,250/oz, allowing the company to sell gold at near-spot prices, which significantly enhances profitability and free cash flow.
- Share Buyback Initiative: The company has proposed a normal course issuer bid (NCIB) to repurchase up to 6,794,790 common shares, representing approximately 5% of its outstanding shares, aimed at leveraging strong gold prices to increase net asset value per share and enhance shareholder ownership.
- Cash Flow Management: Cerrado Gold plans to utilize excess cash from gold sales above budgeted prices for share buybacks without impacting current growth plans, ensuring a strong cash balance at the end of 2026, thereby providing higher returns to shareholders.
- Project Investment Progress: Following the completion of the gold hedge, the company will continue advancing key investments, including the underground mine and Lagoa Salgada and Mont Sorcier projects, further optimizing asset value and improving overall financial health.
See More
Certara (CERT) Shares Rise 4.4% Following Leerink Partners Upgrade
- Stock Price Increase: Certara's shares rose 4.4% in recent trading, primarily due to an upgrade from Leerink Partners, reflecting market optimism regarding the company's future performance.
- Positive Market Reaction: Upgrades typically boost investor confidence, leading to stock price increases, and Certara's rebound indicates investor recognition of its business prospects.
- Analyst Support: The upgrade from Leerink Partners may attract more institutional investors to Certara, further enhancing its market position and liquidity.
- Strategic Implications: This upgrade not only enhances Certara's market image but may also provide more favorable conditions for future financing and business expansion.
See More
Kopion Asset Management Buys 327,064 Shares of Certara for $3.37 Million
- Share Acquisition: Kopion Asset Management disclosed the purchase of 327,064 shares of Certara during the quarter ending December 31, representing an estimated transaction value of $3.37 million, indicating confidence in the company's growth potential.
- Increased Stake: Certara now constitutes 6.19% of Kopion's reportable U.S. equity AUM, highlighting its growing significance in the portfolio, which may influence future investment decisions.
- Market Performance Analysis: Despite an 18% decline in Certara's stock price over the past year, the company reported a 10% year-over-year revenue growth in Q3, with software revenue up 22%, demonstrating sustained demand and resilience in the drug development sector.
- Investment Strategy Adjustment: Kopion's decision to increase its stake reflects a strategy of seeking defensive investments in volatile markets, as Certara's biosimulation software and regulatory services have high switching costs, ensuring persistent market demand.
See More
Kopion Asset Management Acquires 327,064 Certara Shares for $3.37 Million
- Share Acquisition: Kopion Asset Management added 327,064 shares of Certara in Q4, with an estimated transaction size of $3.37 million, reflecting confidence in the company's growth potential.
- Value Increase: The value of Certara's position rose by $645,681 over the quarter, indicating a positive market response to both new purchases and price appreciation, which underscores investor confidence in its business outlook.
- Asset Allocation: As of December 31, Kopion held a total of 982,710 shares of Certara worth $8.66 million, representing 6.19% of its reportable U.S. equity AUM, highlighting its significance in the investment portfolio.
- Market Performance: Despite Certara's stock price declining 18% over the past year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 34.5 percentage points, its competitive advantages in biosimulation and regulatory services continue to attract long-term investors.
See More
