Gold Miners Set for Explosive Earnings Season as Bullion Prices Hit Records
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 12 2026
0mins
Should l Buy AGI?
Source: Benzinga
- Strong Earnings Outlook: With gold prices averaging around $4,150 per ounce in Q4, a 56% year-on-year increase, and industry all-in sustaining costs rising only modestly, gold miners are expected to see a significant boost in profitability, potentially leading to a material underestimation of their earnings by the market.
- Mid-Tier Producer Example: Alamos Gold Inc. anticipates producing approximately 167,000 ounces of gold in Q4, with an assumed realized price near $4,100, suggesting a more than 115% year-on-year increase in profit per ounce, with total profits potentially reaching around $467 million, a substantial rise from the previous year.
- Significant Cash Flow Improvement: Leveraging the surge in gold prices, Alamos is projected to generate approximately $137 million in free cash flow for Q4, a dramatic increase from $53.5 million last year, highlighting robust profitability and cash generation capabilities.
- Supportive Market Conditions: Despite anticipated volatility, HSBC has raised its gold price target to $5,050 for the first half of 2026, indicating that gold miners will continue to benefit from a strong market environment driven by geopolitical risks and central bank demand.
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Analyst Views on AGI
Wall Street analysts forecast AGI stock price to rise
8 Analyst Rating
8 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 42.190
Low
39.59
Averages
45.55
High
50.00
Current: 42.190
Low
39.59
Averages
45.55
High
50.00
About AGI
Alamos Gold Inc. is a Canadian intermediate gold producer with diversified production from three operations in North America. This includes the Island Gold District and Young-Davidson mine in northern Ontario, Canada, and the Mulatos District in Sonora State, Mexico. Additionally, the Company has a portfolio of growth projects, including the Phase 3+ Expansion at Island Gold, and the Lynn Lake project in Manitoba, Canada. The Island Gold District is located just east of the town of Dubreuilville, 83 kilometers northeast of Wawa in Northern Ontario. The Young-Davidson Mine is in northern Ontario, Canada, centrally located between Timmins, Kirkland Lake, North Bay, and Sudbury. The Mulatos district is in the Sierra Madre Occidental Mountain range in the east-central portion of the State of Sonora, Mexico. The Lynn Lake project is in northern Manitoba and consists of two primary sites, MacLellan and Gordon. Its other project is Qiqavik Gold Project.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Increased Reserves: The expansion study builds on the life-of-mine plan published in June 2025, incorporating a 30% increase in mineral reserves to 8.3 million ounces, ensuring sustainable production and profitability for the future.
- Enhanced Processing Capacity: The expansion of the Magino mill will support increased processing rates of 3,000 tons per day of high-grade underground ore and 17,000 tons per day from the Magino open pit, with expected annual production exceeding 530,000 ounces, further boosting the company's overall value.
- Long-Term Goals: Alamos has lowered its 2026 gold production forecast to 570,000-650,000 ounces, yet it aims to achieve an annual output of 1 million ounces by 2030, demonstrating the company's strong confidence in future growth.
See More
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- Cost Control Strategy: Total cash costs and all-in sustaining costs are expected to decrease by 24% and 18%, respectively, by 2028, achieved through low-cost growth from the Island Gold District and initial production from Lynn Lake, further improving the company's profitability.
- Capital Expenditure Plan: Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to range from $850 million to $940 million, primarily allocated for the expansion of the Island Gold District and the construction of the Lynn Lake project, providing necessary funding for future production growth.
- Free Cash Flow Growth: Free cash flow is expected to exceed $500 million in 2026, supporting increased shareholder returns, reflecting the company's strong financial performance amid ongoing investments and growth projects.
See More
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- Reduced Production Costs: The average cash cost post-expansion is projected at $682 per ounce, representing a 31% decrease from 2025, which will significantly enhance profit margins and strengthen the company's competitive position in the gold market.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Total capital expenditure for the IGD Expansion is estimated at $704 million, with $542 million allocated for the Magino mill expansion, expected to be completed over the next three years, further enhancing production capacity.
- Reduced Environmental Impact: The connection to the power grid is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions intensity by 56%, aligning with sustainability goals and improving the company's image among environmentally conscious investors.
See More
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- Reserve Growth: Alamos Gold has reported a 12-year consecutive increase in underground mineral reserves at the Island Gold Mine, with expectations of a substantial increase to be included in the upcoming expansion study, supporting a larger and more profitable operation.
- High-Grade Mineralization Extension: Exploration drilling at the Cline-Pick mines has intersected high-grade gold mineralization of 178.07 g/t, indicating the potential for these areas to evolve into additional sources of higher-grade ore, thereby enhancing the company's resource base.
- Increased Exploration Investment: In 2025, Alamos allocated $24 million for exploration at the Island Gold District, up from $20 million in 2024, reflecting the company's confidence and commitment to future resource development.
- Regional Exploration Success: A total of 9,911 meters of drilling was completed in the regional exploration of the Cline-Pick and Edwards mines, successfully extending high-grade gold mineralization, which is expected to provide additional high-grade mill feed for the Magino mill.
See More
