<Research> JPM: Indicators Suggest Continued Decline in China's Property Market; Recommended Stocks: CHINA RES LAND/ CHINA RES MIXC
China's Real Estate Market Weakening: JPMorgan's research indicates that China's real estate market is showing further signs of weakness, with expectations of worsening data due to a higher base in 4Q25.
Investment Opportunities: Despite the market challenges, JPMorgan identifies tactical investment opportunities, particularly in non-distressed private enterprises and small to medium-sized state-owned enterprises, while also highlighting potential upside in lagging large-cap SOEs.
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LandsD Reports 8 Bids for Shau Kei Wan Main Street East Site
Tender Announcement: The Lands Department of Hong Kong revealed that a site on Shau Kei Wan Main Street East received 8 tender documents from various developers, including K. WAH INT'L, CHI MER LAND, SINO LAND, and CHINA OVERSEAS.
Market Valuation: The estimated market valuation for the site ranges from approximately $790 million to $1.19 billion, with an accommodation value of about $5,300 to $8,000 per square foot.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling data for the participating developers, indicating varying levels of short selling activity and ratios, with China Overseas showing the highest short selling ratio at 41.807%.
Market Insights: UBS has commented on the valuation of Hong Kong homebuilders, suggesting that they are becoming expensive, and recommends stock selection favoring low debt, high dividends, and buyback themes.
CHINA OVERSEAS Secures Residential Site on Choi Ha Road, Ngau Tau Kok for Over $1.806 Billion
Tender Award Announcement: The Lands Department awarded the tender for New Kowloon Inland Lot No. 6675 to Maxjet Company Limited for a premium of $1.80688 billion on a 50-year land grant.
Bidding Details: The tender closed with nine bids, with market estimates for the site ranging between $1.14 billion and $1.8 billion.
HSI Gains 12 Points, Yet Software Stocks and Dotcoms Decline; Coal and Chinese Developers Surge
Market Performance: The HSI closed slightly up at 26,847, while the HSCEI and HSTECH saw minor declines, with total market turnover dropping to $285.433 billion.
Sector Struggles: Software and dotcom sectors faced significant losses, with major companies like TENCENT and MEITU experiencing declines of 3.96% and 11.4%, respectively.
Resource Stocks Rise: Gold and silver prices rebounded, with companies like CHINAGOLDINTL and ZHAOJIN MINING seeing gains, while coal stocks like YANKUANG ENERGY surged by over 10%.
Financial Sector Movements: HSBC and AIA saw slight increases, while HKEX experienced a minor decline; Chinese property developers generally performed well, with several stocks rising between 5% and 10%.
<Daily Summary> HSI Ends at 26,847, Gaining 12 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,366, Dropping 100 Points; TENCENT Falls More Than 3%; XINYI GLASS, TECHTRONIC IND, CHINA RES MIXC, WHARF REIC, MTR CORPORATION Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose slightly by 12 points to close at 26,847, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) fell by 100 points and 4 points, respectively, with a total market turnover of $285.43 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Tencent, Xiaomi, and Meituan experienced declines, with Tencent dropping 4% to close at $558, while other heavyweights also saw significant short selling activity.
Notable Movers: Trip.com saw a significant drop of 6.1%, while Xinyi Glass and China Shenhua recorded gains of 5.9% and 5.7%, respectively, with several stocks hitting new highs.
Short Selling Trends: Various stocks experienced notable short selling, with Techtronic Industries and China Resources Mixc among those hitting new highs, while others like Kingdee International and Meitu faced substantial declines.
Midday Update: HSI Ends at 26,724, Down 109 Points; HSTI at 5,347, Down 119 Points; TENCENT Falls Over 3%; XINYI GLASS, TECHTRONIC IND, WHARF REIC, YANKUANG ENERGY, and CHINA EAST AIR Reach New Highs
Market Performance: The HSI dropped 109 points (0.4%) to 26,724, while the HSTI fell 119 points (2.2%) to 5,347, and the HSCEI decreased by 48 points (0.5%) to 9,004.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like TENCENT, XIAOMI, and MEITUAN saw declines, with TENCENT down 3.4% and XIAOMI down 2.6%, while BABA fell 0.9%.
Notable Movers: XINYI GLASS and CHINA SHENHUA experienced significant gains, with XINYI GLASS up 6.2% and CHINA SHENHUA up 5.4%, while TRIP.COM-S dropped 6.1%.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including XIAOMI (20.155%) and MEITUAN (17.261%), indicating increased bearish sentiment among investors.
CICC Anticipates Continued Pressure on CN Developers' 2025 Earnings; CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP Maintain Significant Profit Levels
Earnings Forecast: China's real estate sector is expected to see a significant decline in earnings for covered companies in 2025, with firms like CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP projected to experience a 15-20% year-on-year decrease.
Market Sentiment: Despite the anticipated earnings drop, CICC maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector for 2023, suggesting potential for positive returns and good value in stock selection for 2026.
Company Performance: Some companies, including GREENTOWN CHINA and YUEXIU PROPERTY, may report marginal profits, while others like LONGFOR GROUP and URBAN CONS DEV could face slight losses, with a few firms expected to see steady core profits.
Stock Ratings: CICC has kept its ratings and target prices unchanged for various Chinese developers, highlighting stocks such as BINJIANG GP and SEAZEN HOLDINGS as outperformers in the market.
LandsD Reports 8 Bids for Shau Kei Wan Main Street East Site
Tender Announcement: The Lands Department of Hong Kong revealed that a site on Shau Kei Wan Main Street East received 8 tender documents from various developers, including K. WAH INT'L, CHI MER LAND, SINO LAND, and CHINA OVERSEAS.
Market Valuation: The estimated market valuation for the site ranges from approximately $790 million to $1.19 billion, with an accommodation value of about $5,300 to $8,000 per square foot.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling data for the participating developers, indicating varying levels of short selling activity and ratios, with China Overseas showing the highest short selling ratio at 41.807%.
Market Insights: UBS has commented on the valuation of Hong Kong homebuilders, suggesting that they are becoming expensive, and recommends stock selection favoring low debt, high dividends, and buyback themes.
CHINA OVERSEAS Secures Residential Site on Choi Ha Road, Ngau Tau Kok for Over $1.806 Billion
Tender Award Announcement: The Lands Department awarded the tender for New Kowloon Inland Lot No. 6675 to Maxjet Company Limited for a premium of $1.80688 billion on a 50-year land grant.
Bidding Details: The tender closed with nine bids, with market estimates for the site ranging between $1.14 billion and $1.8 billion.
HSI Gains 12 Points, Yet Software Stocks and Dotcoms Decline; Coal and Chinese Developers Surge
Market Performance: The HSI closed slightly up at 26,847, while the HSCEI and HSTECH saw minor declines, with total market turnover dropping to $285.433 billion.
Sector Struggles: Software and dotcom sectors faced significant losses, with major companies like TENCENT and MEITU experiencing declines of 3.96% and 11.4%, respectively.
Resource Stocks Rise: Gold and silver prices rebounded, with companies like CHINAGOLDINTL and ZHAOJIN MINING seeing gains, while coal stocks like YANKUANG ENERGY surged by over 10%.
Financial Sector Movements: HSBC and AIA saw slight increases, while HKEX experienced a minor decline; Chinese property developers generally performed well, with several stocks rising between 5% and 10%.
<Daily Summary> HSI Ends at 26,847, Gaining 12 Points; HSTI Finishes at 5,366, Dropping 100 Points; TENCENT Falls More Than 3%; XINYI GLASS, TECHTRONIC IND, CHINA RES MIXC, WHARF REIC, MTR CORPORATION Reach New Peaks; Market Turnover Increases
Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose slightly by 12 points to close at 26,847, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) fell by 100 points and 4 points, respectively, with a total market turnover of $285.43 billion.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like Tencent, Xiaomi, and Meituan experienced declines, with Tencent dropping 4% to close at $558, while other heavyweights also saw significant short selling activity.
Notable Movers: Trip.com saw a significant drop of 6.1%, while Xinyi Glass and China Shenhua recorded gains of 5.9% and 5.7%, respectively, with several stocks hitting new highs.
Short Selling Trends: Various stocks experienced notable short selling, with Techtronic Industries and China Resources Mixc among those hitting new highs, while others like Kingdee International and Meitu faced substantial declines.
Midday Update: HSI Ends at 26,724, Down 109 Points; HSTI at 5,347, Down 119 Points; TENCENT Falls Over 3%; XINYI GLASS, TECHTRONIC IND, WHARF REIC, YANKUANG ENERGY, and CHINA EAST AIR Reach New Highs
Market Performance: The HSI dropped 109 points (0.4%) to 26,724, while the HSTI fell 119 points (2.2%) to 5,347, and the HSCEI decreased by 48 points (0.5%) to 9,004.
Active Heavyweights: Major stocks like TENCENT, XIAOMI, and MEITUAN saw declines, with TENCENT down 3.4% and XIAOMI down 2.6%, while BABA fell 0.9%.
Notable Movers: XINYI GLASS and CHINA SHENHUA experienced significant gains, with XINYI GLASS up 6.2% and CHINA SHENHUA up 5.4%, while TRIP.COM-S dropped 6.1%.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed in several stocks, including XIAOMI (20.155%) and MEITUAN (17.261%), indicating increased bearish sentiment among investors.
CICC Anticipates Continued Pressure on CN Developers' 2025 Earnings; CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP Maintain Significant Profit Levels
Earnings Forecast: China's real estate sector is expected to see a significant decline in earnings for covered companies in 2025, with firms like CHINA RES LAND, CHINA OVERSEAS, and C&D INTL GROUP projected to experience a 15-20% year-on-year decrease.
Market Sentiment: Despite the anticipated earnings drop, CICC maintains a positive outlook on the real estate sector for 2023, suggesting potential for positive returns and good value in stock selection for 2026.
Company Performance: Some companies, including GREENTOWN CHINA and YUEXIU PROPERTY, may report marginal profits, while others like LONGFOR GROUP and URBAN CONS DEV could face slight losses, with a few firms expected to see steady core profits.
Stock Ratings: CICC has kept its ratings and target prices unchanged for various Chinese developers, highlighting stocks such as BINJIANG GP and SEAZEN HOLDINGS as outperformers in the market.
