Brokers Anticipate Nearly 50% Drop in BIDU-SW's Adjusted Net Profit Last Quarter; Attention on Kunlunxin Spin-off and Possible Upgrade to HK 'Primary Listing' Status
Earnings Announcement: BIDU-SW is set to announce its 4Q25 results on February 26, with expectations of a significant decline in adjusted operating profit margin due to pressures from AI transformation and ongoing investments.
Profit Forecast: Analysts predict a 42.2-56.9% year-over-year drop in non-GAAP net profit attributable to shareholders, estimating figures between RMB2.805 billion and RMB3.875 billion, with a median forecast of RMB3.382 billion.
Investor Focus: Investors will be keen on management's strategies to mitigate the decline in advertising revenue, updates on the search business transformation, and developments in the Robotaxi sector.
Market Sentiment: The volatility in internet stocks reflects fragile market sentiment, with some analysts suggesting that current adjustments may present buying opportunities for investors.
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US Department of War Updates List: The US Department of War added several Chinese companies, including Unitree and ROBOSENSE, to its "List of Chinese Military Companies," while removing others like YMTC and CXMT.
Alibaba's Response: Alibaba stated it is not involved in military activities and plans to take legal action against any misrepresentation of its image following its inclusion on the list.
Short Selling Data: The article provides short selling data for various companies, indicating significant short selling ratios for Alibaba, Baidu, BYD, and NIO.
Market Reactions: The updates to the list and the associated short selling activities reflect ongoing tensions and market reactions to US-China relations.
Investor Roadshow Announcement: Baidu's subsidiary Kunlunxin is set to launch an investor roadshow after the Lunar New Year, focusing on existing institutional shareholders.
Listing Application: Kunlunxin has submitted a confidential Main Board listing application to HKEX earlier this year.
Short Selling Data: The short selling for BIDU-SW is reported at $492.08 million with a ratio of 24.610%, while another figure shows $614.31 million and a ratio of 17.107%.
Valuation Update: Following its Series D financing in July 2025, Kunlunxin's post-investment valuation is reported to be RMB21 billion.

Regulatory Action: China's State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) summoned major platform companies, including Alibaba, Douyin, Baidu, Tencent, JD, and Meituan, to ensure compliance with various laws and regulations.
Focus on Fair Competition: The SAMR emphasized the need for these companies to regulate their promotional activities and eliminate "involutionary" competition to maintain a fair market environment.

Market Performance: The HSI closed at 27,032, down 233 points (0.9%), with significant declines in the HSCEI and HSTECH, while total market turnover reached HKD238.705 billion.
Company Earnings: BUD APAC was the worst-performing blue-chip stock, down 5.2% after reporting a 32.6% drop in net profit. Other companies like Lenovo and NetEase also saw declines despite some reporting increased profits.
Regulatory Actions: The Beijing Municipal Market Supervision Bureau engaged with 12 online ticket sales platforms, resulting in declines for companies like Trip.com and Meituan, which fell 3.9% and 4.5%, respectively.
AI Sector Growth: Following Premier Li Qiang's call for AI innovation, AI stocks like SenseTime and Knowledge Atlas saw significant gains, with Knowledge Atlas soaring 28.7% after launching a new product.

Market Performance: Hong Kong stocks faced a decline, with the HSI dropping 242 points (0.9%) to 27,023, while the HSCEI and HSTECH also fell by nearly 1% and 1.7%, respectively.
Tech Stocks Struggles: Major tech companies like NTES, BABA, and TENCENT saw significant drops in their share prices, with NTES down 3.8% and BABA down 2.1%, amid disappointing earnings reports and ongoing investment strategies.
Chinese Developers' Gains: Some Chinese developers, including CHINA VANKE and RONSHINECHINA, experienced gains due to reports of a potential RMB80 billion rescue package from the Shenzhen municipal government.
WUXI APPTEC's Success: WUXI APPTEC emerged as the best-performing blue chip, rising nearly 4% after Nomura raised its revenue expectations and target price, indicating strong future performance.

Red Packet Competition: The Spring Festival has seen a resurgence in the 'red packet' competition among major companies in China, with TENCENT, BIDU, BABA, and ByteDance launching significant cash giveaways and tech gifts to attract users.
AI Integration and Security: Companies are enhancing their offerings with AI features and focusing on payment security, with TENCENT emphasizing its cybersecurity measures to protect users during the red packet distribution.
Market Dynamics: The competition is not just about cash giveaways; it reflects a broader battle for technical capabilities, compliance, and ecosystem coordination among payment institutions.
Future Implications: Industry experts suggest that the ability to clear and settle transactions efficiently will become a critical factor in determining the competitiveness of payment platforms after the red packet frenzy subsides.




