BofAS Maintains Buy Rating on LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK), Anticipates 5% Dilution of Shareholder Equity from FAW Share Sale
BofA Securities Rating: BofA Securities maintains a Buy rating for LEAPMOTOR (09863.HK) with a target price of $90, citing strong sales growth and overseas expansion, aided by collaboration with Stellantis.
Share Issuance Announcement: LEAPMOTOR announced a conditional agreement to issue 74.8 million shares to FAW Group at RMB50.03 per share, resulting in a 5% dilution of existing shareholder equity.
New Product Launch: The company launched its first MPV, the D99, which is set to compete in the high-end MPV market against competitors like LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) and Denza D9.
Market Context: The short selling activity for LEAPMOTOR is significant, with $50.59M in short selling and a ratio of 19.469%, indicating market skepticism despite the positive outlook from analysts.
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Counterfeit Operation Dismantled: LI AUTO-W announced its involvement in a law enforcement operation that dismantled a site producing and selling counterfeit Li Auto-branded charging piles, resulting in the seizure of 16 counterfeit charging piles and related materials.
Legal Actions Taken: The individuals involved in the counterfeit operation have been subjected to compulsory legal measures as per the law.

Stock Ratings Overview: Various companies in the automotive sector, including BYD, Li Auto, XPeng, and Fuyao Glass, received "Buy" ratings with adjusted target prices reflecting recent market performance.
Short Selling Activity: Significant short selling activity was noted for several companies, with Li Auto and Minth Group showing high short selling ratios of 34.55% and 21.42%, respectively.
Neutral and Sell Ratings: NIO, Tuopu Group, and Huayu Automotive received "Neutral" or "Sell" ratings, indicating a cautious outlook on their stock performance.
Market Pressures: CLSA reported that rising costs are further compressing automaker profits, with companies like BYD and Leapmotor positioned better to absorb these pressures.

US Retail Sales and Market Response: December retail sales in the US fell short of expectations, while the DJIA rose 0.1% amid speculation of a potential rate cut.
Hong Kong Market Performance: The Hong Kong stock market saw gains, with the HSI up 116 points (0.4%) and notable increases in the HSCEI and HSTECH indices.
Stock Movements and Short Selling: Significant short selling activity was reported, particularly for companies like SMIC and CHINA LIT, which experienced stock price declines despite some companies reporting profit increases.
Automakers' Stock Surge: Automakers led the market gains, with companies like Xiaomi and NIO seeing substantial stock price increases following positive developments in tech innovation and profit forecasts.

Store Partner Program Launch: LI AUTO-W plans to introduce a store partner program after this year's Spring Festival to enhance operational efficiency and market responsiveness.
Empowerment of Store Managers: The program will empower store managers with greater decision-making authority and will revise the store assessment criteria to include sales, profits, and customer satisfaction.

Market Outlook: JP Morgan predicts the Chinese automobile market will experience a mixed performance in 2023, with potential negative growth similar to 2018, but also volatility driven by new model releases and seasonal trends akin to 2025.
Top Picks: The broker's top stock picks include GEELY AUTO and SINOTRUK, while they see potential in BYD COMPANY, LEAPMOTOR, XPENG-W, and NIO for future positioning.
Investment Ratings: JP Morgan has assigned various investment ratings and target prices for several automobile stocks, with BYD COMPANY and SINOTRUK rated as "Overweight," while LI AUTO-W has been downgraded to "Underweight."
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for the stocks mentioned, indicating varying levels of market sentiment and potential risks associated with each stock.

Current Valuation: LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) is currently trading at a valuation level that is below 95% of its historical performance since listing, with net cash making up about two-thirds of its market value.
Market Sentiment: The stock is experiencing pessimistic market sentiment, reflected in a significant short selling ratio of 43.651% and a short selling amount of $302.20M.
Future Growth Catalyst: The anticipated refresh of its flagship SUV, the L9, in 2Q26 is expected to drive growth from a low base in 2025, providing a potential turnaround for the company.
Analyst Recommendation: UBS has reiterated a Buy rating for LI AUTO-W, setting a target price of US$30, citing an attractive risk-reward profile despite challenges from rising commodity costs.




