US Stock Market Outlook: Futures Drop, Walmart Falls, Oil Prices Rise Amid Tensions

US Jobless Claims and Economic Indicators

On Thursday, the US reported initial jobless claims for the week ending February 14 at 206,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and marking the lowest level since January 10.

Economic Data Highlights

• Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index: 16.3 (expected: 8.5, previous: 12.6)
• December Trade Balance: -$70.3 billion (expected: -$55.5 billion, previous: -$56.8 billion)

As a result, US stock futures showed declines, with the Dow futures down 0.35%, Nasdaq futures down 0.52%, and S&P 500 futures down 0.35%.

Tech Stocks Performance

Star tech stocks exhibited mixed results in pre-market trading:

• Tesla (TSLA) and Meta Platforms (META) fell nearly 1%
• ASML dropped over 1%
• Microsoft (MSFT), Micron Technology (MU), and AMD saw slight increases.

Chinese Stocks Movement

Chinese stocks also showed varied performance:

• Trip.com (TCOM) fell over 1%
• Pinduoduo (PDD) rose nearly 0.5%

Oil Prices and Market Reactions

Brent crude oil prices surged above $71 per barrel due to escalating tensions between the US and Iran.

• Oil and gas exploration stocks mostly rose, with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) up nearly 5% and Indonesia Energy (INDO) up over 6%.

Semiconductor and AI Developments

The semiconductor sector is facing a "storage crisis," with Samsung reportedly raising HBM4 prices by 30%. Major US storage stocks saw gains, including Western Digital (WDC) up over 2% and SanDisk (SNDK) up nearly 1%.

Google’s AI Innovations

Google announced the launch of its music model, Gemini, which can generate songs from text or images. This model is now available in the US and is being promoted to YouTube creators.

Nvidia's New Chip Announcement

Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang hinted at a "never-before-seen" chip product to be unveiled at the upcoming GTC conference, drawing significant market attention.

Apple’s Defensive Position

Apple (AAPL) has become a "safe haven" amid AI market volatility, showing a 20-year low correlation with the Nasdaq due to its hardware-centric business model.

Collaboration Between Google and Sea

Google (GOOGL) and Southeast Asian tech giant Sea (SE) announced a partnership to develop AI tools for e-commerce and gaming, with Sea's stock rising over 1% in pre-market trading.

Rio Tinto's Annual Performance

Rio Tinto (RIO) reported its annual earnings, which were slightly below expectations due to weak iron ore prices, but strong copper performance helped maintain overall earnings at $10.87 billion.

Warner Bros Acquisition Battle

Speculation arises that the bidding war for Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) may escalate, with Paramount Skydance (PSKY) indicating a potential increase in their offer.

Booking Holdings Stock Split

Booking Holdings (BKNG) announced a 1:25 stock split, aiming to make its shares more accessible after reporting a 16% increase in bookings.

Walmart's Earnings Forecast

Walmart's (WMT) forecast for adjusted EPS in FY2027 fell short of expectations, leading to a nearly 3% drop in pre-market trading.

Other Notable Stock Movements

• Deere & Company (DE) rose nearly 6% after reporting better-than-expected earnings.
• Figma Inc (FIG) surged over 11% with strong Q4 revenue.
• DoorDash (DASH) and eBay (EBAY) also saw significant pre-market gains.

Geopolitical Tensions

The US is reportedly amassing its largest air force presence in the Middle East since the Iraq War, amid rising tensions with Iran.

Iran's Military Readiness

Iran's government spokesperson announced that the country's defense forces are in full combat readiness, emphasizing a dual strategy of negotiation and preparation.

Economic Outlook and Federal Reserve Insights

The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed significant divisions among officials regarding interest rate policies, with some advocating for further rate cuts while others suggested potential hikes.

Global Economic Stimulus Analysis

UBS forecasts that global fiscal stimulus will contribute only 8 basis points to GDP growth by 2026, indicating a need for endogenous economic drivers.

Immigration and Labor Market Changes

Goldman Sachs reported an 80% drop in net immigration to the US, reshaping the labor market dynamics and reducing the monthly job growth needed to maintain stable unemployment rates.

OpenAI's Funding Round

OpenAI is nearing completion of a funding round expected to exceed $100 billion, with a valuation potentially reaching $850 billion.

Saudi Investment in AI

Saudi-backed Humain has invested $3 billion in Elon Musk's AI startup xAI, becoming a significant minority shareholder.

FDA's Drug Pricing Initiative

The FDA plans to expedite the transition of prescription drugs to over-the-counter status to lower prices, though the pharmaceutical industry warns this may lead to higher costs for patients reliant on insurance.