Bitcoin and ISM Manufacturing PMI Correlation: The ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index has historically aligned with Bitcoin's market cycle peaks, suggesting the current bull run may extend longer than usual. Analysts indicate that a sustained PMI above 50 could correlate with stronger Bitcoin performance.
Extended Cycle Timeline for Bitcoin: Predictions now suggest Bitcoin's peak valuations may occur between September 2025 and March 2026, allowing for gradual capital accumulation and reducing risks associated with shorter market cycles. Long-term holders show significant room for appreciation before reaching overvaluation.
Impact of Manufacturing Weakness on Bitcoin: Persistent weakness in manufacturing activity highlights structural challenges in the US economy, with the ISM report indicating that PMI contraction does not necessarily predict a recession. This ongoing contraction may lead to prolonged accommodative monetary policy, benefiting Bitcoin's price.
Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin: Several US states are planning to allocate public funds for Bitcoin purchases, reflecting growing institutional confidence in Bitcoin as a treasury asset. This trend aligns with Bitcoin's increasing correlation with the S&P 500, indicating its shift towards being a macro-sensitive investment.
