Philip Morris International Inc (PM) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 02/05 05:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 10.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.67 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
Fact data supports a Beat on both revenue and EPS, driven by smoke-free momentum and margin resilience.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Revenue Growth Drivers:
Smoke-free products (IQOS, ZYN, VEEV) delivered ** 13.9% organic growth** in Q3, with ZYN U.S. offtake up 39% and shipments rising 37%. This momentum likely continued into Q4, supported by expanded partnerships (e.g., Ferrari branding visibility).
HTU shipments grew ** 15.5%** in Q3, indicating sustained adoption in key markets.
Offsetting Combustibles Decline: Smoke-free growth is structurally replacing combustible losses, aligning with PMI’s strategic pivot.
Margin Expansion:
Adjusted operating income margin reached ** 43.1%** in Q3 (highest in 4 years), driven by smoke-free gross margin expansion (+360bps YTD). Pricing power and cost efficiencies likely persisted.
Reaffirmed FY2025 EPS guidance ($ 7.39–$ 7.49) signals confidence in profitability despite minor analyst estimate cuts.
Risks:
Regulatory pressure on e-cigarettes (e.g., AGs targeting Shopify) poses indirect risks but lacks immediate revenue impact.
ZYN’s competitive dynamics (per Barclays) might slow growth, but current data shows no deceleration.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Options: Buy short-dated calls (Jan 2026 $160 strike) to capitalize on beat-driven upside.
- Equity: Accumulate shares pre-earnings; low valuation (P/E
21x) vs. staples peers (25x) offers margin of safety. - Hedge: Pair with puts on regulatory-exposed tobacco peers (e.g., MO).
Earnings Surprise Analysis
PM Transcript
The earnings call indicates strong performance in smoke-free products, gross margin expansion, and organic revenue growth. Despite cigarette volume decline, smoke-free products like IQOS and ZYN are driving growth. The Q&A session confirms strong ZYN growth and strategic investments in the U.S., though some uncertainties remain. Overall, positive guidance and strong financial metrics suggest a positive stock price reaction.
The earnings call reveals strong growth in the smoke-free business and ZYN shipments, alongside raised guidance for revenue, operating income, and EBITA. Despite some uncertainties in EU regulations and FDA approvals, the company's strategic initiatives and cost savings bolster a positive outlook. The Q&A session highlights robust growth drivers and confidence in achieving targets, with potential short-term boosts from resumed promotions. Overall, the positive sentiment outweighs the risks, suggesting a likely 2% to 8% stock price increase.
PM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Philip Morris International Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Philip Morris International Inc (PM) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onFeb 5, 2026, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Philip Morris International Inc FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 10.00B in revenue and an EPS of 2.00 for Philip Morris International Inc's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Philip Morris International Inc FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forPhilip Morris International Inc's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 5, 2026. Philip Morris International Inc Fact data supports a Beat on both revenue and EPS, driven by smoke-free momentum and margin resilience.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade PM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theFeb 5, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Philip Morris International Inc FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
