Newmont Corporation (NEM) FY2025Q4 Earning Prediction
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is set to release its FY2025Q4 earnings performance on 02/19 05:00:00 in After Hours trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 5.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 1.81 for the FY2025Q4. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast indicates a likely Beat outcome driven by strong gold prices, operational efficiencies, and robust free cash flow.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
The Fact Data highlights bullish analyst sentiment tied to gold price strength and operational efficiencies, which directly address core concerns around cash flow, EBITDA growth, and shareholder returns. Key points:
- Gold Price Tailwinds: Analysts (UBS, Jefferies, BofA) cite sustained gold demand and elevated prices into 2026, directly boosting revenue and free cash flow (FCF). This supports the company’s record FCF trajectory ($ 1.6B last quarter).
- Margin Expansion: Jefferies expects gold miners to expand margins in 2026, aligning with NEM’s 20% Q3 EBITDA growth. Higher gold prices disproportionately benefit margins due to fixed-cost mining operations.
- Asset Sales: $640M in Q3 divestiture proceeds supports liquidity and debt reduction, reducing financial risk.
- High Expectations Risk: The stock’s ** 34.89% rally** (vs. S&P 500’s + 0.94%) implies lofty expectations. While Fact Data supports a beat, the magnitude may not exceed consensus enough to trigger a "Strong Beat."
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Bullish Play: Buy $110 calls expiring post-earnings to capitalize on a likely Beat (IV still reasonable given gold sector volatility).
- Hedge: Pair with $100 puts to mitigate downside risk from gold price pullbacks.
- Long-Term Hold: Favorable gold macro and NEM’s debt discipline support holding equity for dividend yield (2.5%+).
Risks: Overly optimistic gold price assumptions; geopolitical/operational shocks.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
NEM Transcript
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with record cash flows and significant shareholder returns, including a $3 billion share repurchase program. The Q&A session did not reveal major concerns, and projects are on track. Despite some non-specific management responses, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by robust operational results and optimistic guidance.
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate a positive outlook. The company returned over $1 billion to shareholders and approved a $3 billion share repurchase, signaling strong shareholder returns. Despite production declines in some areas, the company has strategic plans for long-term stability and growth, such as improvements at Lihir and ongoing productivity enhancements. The Q&A reveals no major negative surprises, and management's optimistic guidance for future projects supports a positive sentiment. Thus, a stock price increase of 2% to 8% is expected.
The earnings call presents a strong financial performance with EPS beating expectations and record free cash flow, despite high G&A costs. The share repurchase program and maintained dividends further support positive sentiment. While there are concerns about long-term guidance and certain project timelines, the divestment proceeds and debt reduction indicate financial health. The positive production outlook and cost reduction in Q4 2024 add to the optimism. Overall, the positive elements outweigh the uncertainties, suggesting a likely positive stock price movement.
The earnings call summary indicates strong financial performance with increased adjusted net income and significant shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. The company is on track with its production and cost management goals, and the Q&A section provided insights into strategic adjustments and future expectations. Despite some concerns over cost inflation, the overall sentiment is positive due to robust shareholder return plans and optimistic production guidance.
NEM Slides
NEM Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Newmont Corporation FY2025Q4 Earnings Release Date and Time?
Newmont Corporation (NEM) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q4 earnings report onFeb 19, 2026, After Hours(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for Newmont Corporation FY2025Q4 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 5.00B in revenue and an EPS of 2.00 for Newmont Corporation's FY2025Q4.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for Newmont Corporation FY2025Q4 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forNewmont Corporation's FY2025Q4 earnings, with a prediction date of Feb 19, 2026. Newmont Corporation The earnings forecast indicates a likely Beat outcome driven by strong gold prices, operational efficiencies, and robust free cash flow.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade NEM Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theFeb 19, 2026 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like Newmont Corporation FY2025Q4?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
