American Express Co (AXP) FY2025Q3 Earning Prediction
American Express Co (AXP) is set to release its FY2025Q3 earnings performance on 10/17 04:00:00 in Pre-Market trading. Consensus forecasts predict a revenue of 18.00B and an earnings per share (EPS) of 3.96 for the FY2025Q3. With Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms, users can predict whether the earnings will beat or miss expectations before the report drops. Leverage this powerful tool to strategize and position your trades ahead of the earnings release!
AI Earnings Prediction
The earnings forecast predicts a beat due to strong co-brand card spending, strategic partnerships, and robust credit quality.
Scenario Analysis
Key Indicators Forecast
No data
Prediction Logic & Rational
Fact data highlights three critical drivers supporting a revenue and EPS beat:
- Double-Digit Co-Brand Card Spending: Delta Air Lines reported "double-digit growth" in spending on the Amex co-brand card (directly tied to transaction volumes and revenue).
- Strategic Partnerships: Expanded partnerships with AEG (global payment collaboration) and Toast (dining tech integration) reinforce transaction growth and premium cardholder engagement.
- Credit Quality Strength: Multiple analysts (BofA, Wells Fargo) emphasize Amex’s "best-in-class" credit quality, with reduced charge-off forecasts, suggesting controlled provision expenses.
Consensus expectations (minimal estimate revisions: + 0.19% revenue, + 0.16% EPS) appear conservative relative to these catalysts. While macro risks persist, the Fact Data skews bullish.
Tactical Strategy Recommendations
- Directional Play: Long $340-$350 calls expiring post-earnings (risk: 25% IV crush).
- Pairs Trade: Long AXP / Short COF (Capital One), as Amex’s premium customer base is less exposed to low-income credit risks flagged by JPMorgan.
- Hedge: Buy puts at $310 (10% downside protection) if macro deterioration feared.
Rationale: Fact Data aligns with a Beat scenario, but options pricing likely embeds moderate expectations (5% move priced). Upside to partnerships/spending growth is underappreciated.
Earnings Surprise Analysis
AXP Transcript
The earnings call revealed several negative factors: challenging market conditions, unfavorable contract renewals, increased financial leverage, and a significant net loss. Although there was revenue growth, it was mitigated by negative events like a cybersecurity incident. The Q&A highlighted uncertainties with CEO change, ongoing margin pressures, and financial restructuring efforts. These factors, combined with high leverage and negative cash flows, suggest a negative sentiment, likely resulting in a stock price decline of -2% to -8%.
The earnings call highlights strong performance in premium card segments, optimistic guidance, and strategic refreshes. Despite unclear details on competitive takeaways and new card potential, the overall sentiment is positive with stable consumer health, strong international growth, and effective expense management. The Q&A supports optimism with robust SME growth and engagement in the Platinum card refresh. These factors suggest a positive stock reaction.
AXP Slides
AXP Report
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the American Express Co FY2025Q3 Earnings Release Date and Time?
American Express Co (AXP) is scheduled to release its FY2025Q3 earnings report onOct 17, 2025, Pre-Market(approximately 4:00 PM ET). This timing allows investors to react during after-hours trading, with a conference call typically following shortly after.
What Are the Consensus Forecasts for American Express Co FY2025Q3 Revenue and EPS?
Analysts' consensus predicts 18.00B in revenue and an EPS of 4.00 for American Express Co's FY2025Q3.
What Does Intellectia's AI Predict for American Express Co FY2025Q3 Earnings?
Intellectia's exclusive AI algorithms forecast a Beat forAmerican Express Co's FY2025Q3 earnings, with a prediction date of Oct 17, 2025. American Express Co The earnings forecast predicts a beat due to strong co-brand card spending, strategic partnerships, and robust credit quality.
How Can I Use This Earnings Prediction to Trade AXP Stock?
Leverage Intellectia's AI forecast to position trades ahead of theOct 17, 2025 release—consider calls for a beat scenario or protective puts for misses. Focus on pre-market volatility, and use the scenario probabilities to build strategies around revenue and guidance updates.
How Accurate Is Intellectia's AI for Earnings Predictions Like American Express Co FY2025Q3?
Intellectia's predictions are backed by rigorous backtesting, showing a high hit rate for Beat and Miss calls compared to traditional analysis. While no forecast is 100% certain, we provide probability-based scenarios (e.g., 50% chance of a *Beat*) and detailed rationales to help you make informed decisions. Combine our insights with your strategy for the best results—it's like having a co-pilot for earnings season! Empowering users to strategize trades before reports drop.
How does AI Earnings Prediction generate its forecasts?
AI Earnings Prediction uses advanced Large Language Models (LLMs) to analyze a wealth of data, including past earnings transcripts, real-time market sentiment, analyst insights, and company news from the last three months. It focuses on key indicators like revenue, EPS, and margins to predict whether a company will *Beat*, *Miss*, or remain Neutral relative to market expectations. Think of it as a super-smart analyst crunching numbers and news 24/7 to give you a trading edge!
When are the predictions available, and how often are they updated?
Predictions are generated two days before a company’s earnings release (e.g., 5:00 PM ET on Feb 13 for a Feb 15 report) to capture the latest market and company data. They’re updated in real-time if significant news breaks, ensuring you get fresh insights.
Can I use AI Earnings Prediction for all types of stocks?
Currently, AI Earnings Prediction focuses on companies with market caps above $40 billion, covering major players like SPG, AAPL, MSFT, and NVDA for the 2025-2026 earnings seasons. We prioritize high-impact stocks with robust data to ensure reliable forecasts. Stay tuned as we expand coverage to more companies based on user demand!
