Based on the provided data and technical indicators, here's a concise analysis of TXT's valuation:
Technical Analysis
TXT is showing bearish signals with RSI-14 at 31.29 indicating oversold conditions. The stock is trading below all major moving averages (SMA 5,10,20,60,200), suggesting a strong downward trend. The MACD is negative at -1.44 with a bearish crossover.
Fundamental Analysis
The company has shown steady growth with:
- Revenue increased from $12.38B (2021) to $13.68B (2023)
- Net income grew from $746M (2021) to $921M (2023)
- ROE improved from 11.8% to 13.08%
Recent Events Impact
According to recent news, TXT faced challenges in Q4 2024 with:
- Work stoppage at Textron Aviation affecting 2024 results
- Industrial segment experiencing difficult end markets
- Production suspension of powersports product line
Valuation Assessment
The stock appears overvalued considering:
- Trading below all major moving averages
- Technical indicators showing bearish momentum
- Recent operational challenges affecting performance
- Current price ($72.28) is near Fibonacci support level of $71.60
Conclusion
Based on technical weakness, operational challenges, and current market positioning, TXT appears overvalued at current levels despite showing fundamental growth.