SUM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how SUM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, SUM sees a -2.35% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +7.54% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.03%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
SUM Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.17B
47.35%
4.73%
Gross Margin
24.22%
-0.86%
2.63%
Operating Margin
17.48%
-3.05%
8.64%
Net Margin
8.98%
-69.33%
-5.37%
EPS
0.60
-68.75%
0.00%
No Data Available
SUM Earnings Analysis
Summit Materials, Inc. Class A Common Stock Corporation (SUM.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Record EBITDA Margins: 1. Record Adjusted EBITDA Margins: Summit Materials achieved a quarterly adjusted EBITDA margin of 28.3% and a trailing 12-month EBITDA margin of 24.3%, both records since the launch of the Elevate strategy in 2021.
Pricing Gains Overview: 2. Strong Pricing Gains: The company reported double-digit pricing gains in aggregates and mid-single-digit organic pricing gains in cement, with an average selling price for cement reaching $155.76 per ton, reflecting robust commercial execution.
Aggregate Sales Growth: 3. Increased Aggregate Sales: Summit sold 15.4 million tons of aggregates in Q3, marking a 0.7% organic increase from the previous year, driven by strong performance in Missouri and key West segment markets.
Cash Position Improvement: 4. Improved Cash Position: The company reported a net leverage ratio of 2.2x, down from 2.5x in the previous quarter, providing sufficient flexibility for capital allocation and growth initiatives.
Cement Synergies Achievement: 5. Successful Integration and Synergies: Summit is on track to realize $40 million in cement synergies for 2024, with a commitment to achieve $80 million over 2024 and 2025, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability.
Negative
Weather-Related EBITDA Loss: 1. Severe Weather Impact: The company faced approximately $15 million in foregone EBITDA due to severe weather events, including Hurricanes Beryl, Debby, and Helene, which resulted in significant operational disruptions and lost volume.
Cement Volume Decline: 2. Declining Cement Volumes: Organic cement volumes decreased by 11.3% year-over-year, reflecting moderating demand and a pullback in imported volumes, with expectations for a decline of approximately 250,000 tons in River Markets and 200,000 tons in legacy Argos markets for the year.
Earnings Decline Analysis: 3. Lower Adjusted Earnings: Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $0.75 was $0.06 lower than the prior year, primarily due to higher noncash depreciation, depletion, and amortization (DD&A) as well as increased interest expenses.
Lowered EBITDA Forecast: 4. Reduced 2024 EBITDA Outlook: The adjusted EBITDA range for 2024 has been lowered to between $970 million and $1 billion, indicating a more restrained volume environment and reflecting the impact of weather-related disruptions.
Cost Inflation Concerns: 5. Increased Cost Pressures: The company anticipates mid-single-digit cost inflation for the year, with specific concerns about rising natural gas prices, which could impact margins moving forward.
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SUM Earning Call Sentiment
Summit Materials, Inc. (SUM) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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00:00
00:00
SUM.N
0%Positive
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Strong financial metrics, record high EBITDA margins, and positive shareholder return plans are offset by competitive pressures and weak guidance on volumes. The Q&A reveals cautious optimism with concerns on cost inflation and market conditions. The reaffirmed guidance and synergies are positives, but the lack of clarity in management's responses and potential risks from Argos USA integration temper expectations. Without market cap data, a neutral prediction (-2% to 2%) is prudent, balancing positives and uncertainties.
