RDFN Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how RDFN performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, RDFN sees a +9.54% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +18.73% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.35%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
RDFN Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
244.28M
12.02%
-12.13%
Gross Margin
33.54%
0.00%
-8.46%
Operating Margin
-11.94%
-37.49%
40.97%
Net Margin
-14.89%
41.81%
22.55%
EPS
-0.29
-45.00%
3.57%
No Data Available
RDFN Earnings Analysis
Redfin Corp Corporation (RDFN.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Quarterly Revenue Increase: Redfin's fourth quarter revenue of $244 million was within guidance and up 12% year-over-year, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of growth.
EBITDA Loss Improvement: Adjusted EBITDA loss improved to $3 million, a $10 million improvement from the previous year, with every business segment showing improvement.
Real Estate Revenue Growth: Real estate services revenue grew 12% year-over-year, driven by a 13% increase in brokerage transactions.
Rental Segment Growth: The rental segment achieved its ninth consecutive quarter of growth, with revenue of $52 million, a 5% increase year-over-year.
Revenue and EBITDA Growth: The title segment generated $9 million in revenue, up 58% year-over-year, with adjusted EBITDA also showing significant improvement.
Partnership Impact on Listings: The partnership with Zillow is expected to double high-quality apartment listings and strengthen Redfin's balance sheet with a $100 million payment, allowing for increased advertising investment.
January Demand Increase: January demand for Redfin's services was up 5%, indicating positive momentum as marketing campaigns ramp up.
Gross Margin Improvement: Real estate services gross margins are expected to improve significantly in the first quarter of 2025 due to cost management strategies implemented in February.
Negative
EBITDA Loss Analysis: Adjusted EBITDA loss of $3 million was below guidance due to higher than expected pay for real estate agents.
Increased Net Loss: Net loss was $36 million, compared to a net loss of $23 million in the prior year, which was below guidance range.
Market Share Stability: Real estate services market share was flat year-over-year at 0.72%, indicating no growth despite revenue increase.
Gross Margin Decline: Real estate services gross margin declined by 60 basis points due to increased personnel costs and transaction bonuses.
Mortgage Attach Rate Decline: Mortgage attach rates sagged to 26% in the fourth quarter, indicating a decrease in customer engagement.
Projected Net Loss: Total net loss for the first quarter is expected to be between $94 million and $83 million, indicating ongoing financial challenges.
Adjusted EBITDA Loss Forecast: Adjusted EBITDA loss is expected to be between $39 million and $32 million for the first quarter, reflecting continued operational losses.
RDFN FAQs
How does RDFN typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is Redfin Corp (RDFN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
RDFN Earning Call Sentiment
Redfin Corporation (RDFN) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
RDFN.O
1.86%Positive
The earnings call reveals several negative factors: higher-than-expected costs leading to an EBITDA loss, regulatory and economic risks, and layoff plans. Despite revenue growth, net loss increased, and gross margin declined. The Q&A highlighted management's lack of clarity on critical issues and potential structural challenges. No share repurchase plan was announced. These factors, combined with the absence of a market cap for context, suggest a negative stock price reaction.
