The chart below shows how NXST performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NXST sees a +0.35% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.61% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.41%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Fourth Quarter Revenue Surge: Record fourth quarter net revenue of $1.5 billion, up 14% year-over-year, driven by strong political advertising and distribution revenue growth.
Record Total Net Revenue: Achieved record total net revenue of $5.4 billion for the full year, the highest in the company's history, highlighting the effectiveness of local television broadcasting.
Strong Financial Performance: Generated $2 billion of adjusted EBITDA and $1.2 billion of adjusted free cash flow for the full year, demonstrating strong financial performance.
Shareholder Returns and Repurchases: Returned $820 million or 68% of adjusted free cash flow to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, reducing shares outstanding by nearly 9% during the year.
Dividend Increase Announcement: Announced the 12th consecutive annual increase in the quarterly cash dividend, reflecting a near 5% yield, placing Nexstar in the 94th percentile of all S&P 400 companies.
Record Low Net Leverage: Achieved a record low net leverage of 2.91x at year-end, positioning the balance sheet well for future opportunities.
Cable News Competitiveness: News Nation established itself as a formidable player in the cable news landscape, outdelivering major competitors in key demographics.
Audience Growth in Sports: The CW network's transformation continued with significant audience growth, particularly in sports programming, attracting new advertisers and improving cash flow.
NASCAR Xfinity Series Success: Successful launch of NASCAR Xfinity Series on the CW, achieving a total audience of 1.8 million viewers, a 93% improvement from the previous year.
Operational Restructuring Savings: Implemented operational restructuring expected to generate savings in the low to mid-eight figures, enhancing efficiency and long-term growth.
2025 EBITDA Guidance Outlook: Projected adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 in the range of $1.5 billion to $1.595 billion, indicating confidence in future performance.
Negative
Advertising Revenue Decline: Fourth quarter advertising revenue saw a reduction of $51 million year-over-year, approximately 9%, due to market softness and political displacement, which accounted for roughly half of that reduction.
Revenue Stagnation Outlook: In 2025, Nexstar expects both gross and net distribution revenue to be relatively flat compared to 2024's record levels, indicating potential stagnation in revenue growth.
Advertising Revenue Decline: The company anticipates nonpolitical advertising revenue to be down in the low- to mid-single digits on a year-over-year basis for the first quarter of 2025, reflecting ongoing challenges in the advertising market.
Television Advertising Challenges: Despite improvements in local advertising, the overall television advertising market remains challenging, particularly with weakness in insurance and automotive advertising due to recent natural disasters.
Workforce Reduction Strategy: Nexstar's operational restructuring involved the elimination of a few hundred positions, indicating potential instability and workforce reduction within the company.
Projected Loss Reduction: The CW network is still expected to incur losses, although they are projected to reduce by more than 25% from 2024 levels, highlighting ongoing financial challenges for the network.
Political Revenue Decline: The absence of the Georgia runoff election in 2024 resulted in a slight dip in political revenue compared to the previous election cycle, indicating vulnerability to external factors affecting revenue.
Leverage Increase Expectations: The company expects leverage to increase during 2025 as adjusted EBITDA falls in non-election years when political advertising is significantly lower, which could impact financial stability.
Nexstar Media Group, Inc. (NXST) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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