NHI Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how NHI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NHI sees a -1.10% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.16% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.03%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
NHI Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
85.75M
7.92%
3.39%
Gross Margin
84.14%
0.35%
0.54%
Operating Margin
55.45%
-0.86%
-1.12%
Net Margin
49.89%
24.97%
46.52%
EPS
0.95
28.38%
46.15%
No Data Available
NHI Earnings Analysis
National Health Investors Inc Corporation (NHI.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Q4 Performance: Strong fourth quarter results exceeded expectations with contributions from across the portfolio.
Cash Rent Increase: Cash rent increased by nearly 9% year-over-year, driven by solid organic growth from rent step-ups and deferral repayments.
NOI Growth Acceleration: SHOP occupancy continued to accelerate, generating 12.5% NOI growth.
Quarterly Investment Announcement: Announced investments of over $150 million during the quarter at an initial yield of 8.5%.
Leverage Improvement: Balance sheet leverage improved, decreasing to 4.1x from 4.4x in the third quarter.
Cash Rental Income Growth: Bickford’s cash rental income grew approximately 17%, contributing to overall portfolio optimization.
NOI Growth and Improvement: SHOP NOI increased by approximately 32%, driven by improved occupancy and margin improvement.
Investment Overview: Total investments for the year reached approximately $237.5 million at an average yield of 8.6%.
Annual FFO Growth: The company delivered growth in annual NAREIT FFO, normalized FFO, and FAD for the first time since 2020.
NOI Growth Expectations: Expectations for continued growth in 2025, with guidance indicating 12% to 15% NOI growth from SHOP.
Strong Financial Position: Balance sheet is in great shape, with significant available capacity for funding investments.
Sale Leaseback Activity: Closed $21.2 million sale leaseback in January, with $152.3 million under signed LOIs and an active pipeline of approximately $190 million.
NOI Growth and Margin Expansion: Expecting elevated NOI growth for the foreseeable future, with strategic targeting of RevPOR growth to drive margin expansion.
Negative
Net Income Stagnation: The company reported a net income per diluted common share of $3.13, unchanged from the prior year, indicating stagnation in profitability.
Increased Loan Losses: Loan and realty losses for the year increased by $3.9 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to increased reserves on mortgage and loans related to the SLM default, highlighting potential risks in their loan portfolio.
Equity Transaction Concerns: The company recognized a non-cash, non-operating gain of $6.3 million related to forward ATM equity activity, which may raise concerns about the sustainability of earnings and reliance on equity transactions.
Revenue Volatility Anticipation: Despite a strong performance in the SHOP portfolio, the anticipated Discovery lease modification is expected to result in a change in the portfolio’s GAAP revenues, indicating potential revenue volatility.
Property Transition Risks: The company expects to transition properties to another operator due to underperformance, which could lead to further instability in rental income and operational efficiency.
Profitability and Cash Flow Impact: The guidance for 2025 includes assumptions for additional costs and concessions related to normal asset management transitions, which may impact overall profitability and cash flow.
Investment Growth Disappointment: The company expressed disappointment in not surpassing last year’s total investment of $237.5 million, indicating a potential slowdown in growth opportunities.
NHI FAQs
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NHI Earning Call Sentiment
National Health Investors, Inc. (NHI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
NHI.N
1.69%Positive
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with increased cash rent, NOI, and FFO, alongside a positive outlook for SHOP occupancy and investment pipeline. The Q&A reassures on rent income growth and investment opportunities, although some uncertainty remains around mezzanine loan recovery and debt assumptions. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction. Overall, the positive financial metrics, optimistic guidance, and shareholder returns suggest a positive stock price movement of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
