The chart below shows how NGD performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NGD sees a +0.82% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.94% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.41%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Gold and Copper Production: The company produced just under 300,000 ounces of gold and 54 million pounds of copper at an all-in sustaining cost of $1,239 per ounce, beating the low end of our all-in sustaining cost guidance range.
Strong Cash Flow Performance: Cash flow from operations of over $390 million and free cash flow of $85 million were reported, indicating strong financial performance.
C-Zone Project Milestones: At New Afton, commercial production at C-Zone was achieved and the crusher and conveyor systems were commissioned, marking significant project milestones.
Mine Life Extensions Update: Updated technical reports for both New Afton and Rainy River incorporated mine life extensions and increased underlying net asset value.
Q4 Production and Costs: Q4 production totaled approximately 80,400 gold ounces and 14.5 million pounds of copper, with consolidated all-in sustaining costs for the quarter at $1,018 per ounce, a decrease of 15% over the third quarter.
Cost Performance Excellence: New Afton achieved an all-in sustaining cost of negative $540 per ounce after considering copper credits, showcasing strong cost performance.
Record Quarterly Revenue: Fourth quarter revenue was $262 million, a quarterly record, driven by higher metal prices and higher copper sales.
Q4 Net Earnings Surge: Net earnings for Q4 were approximately $55 million or $0.07 per share, a significant increase compared to an adjusted net loss of $5 million in Q4 2023.
Gold Production Increase: The company expects gold production to increase from 300,000 ounces in 2024 to a midpoint of 410,000 ounces in 2027, representing a 30% increase over three years.
Copper Production Increase: Copper production is expected to increase from 54 million pounds in 2024 to 405 million pounds by 2027, a 90% increase over that period.
Negative
Gold Production Impact: Unexpected mechanical downtime at Rainy River impacted gold production in Q4, leading to lower output than anticipated.
Record Revenue, Production Miss: Despite achieving a record revenue of $262 million in Q4, the company experienced a slight miss in gold production compared to updated guidance.
Capital Expenditures Overview: The total capital expenditures for Q4 were approximately $75 million, with $10 million on sustaining capital and $65 million on growth capital, indicating a high level of spending during a capital-intensive period.
Deferred Growth Capital Impact: The company deferred approximately $5 million of growth capital into 2025, which may impact future project timelines and operational efficiency.
Earnings Increase Concerns: While the company reported a net earnings increase to $55 million in Q4, this was primarily due to higher revenues rather than operational improvements, raising concerns about sustainability.
Gold Production Outlook: The anticipated increase in gold production for 2025 is contingent on the successful ramp-up of C-Zone mining rates, which may be affected by lower grades as B3 cave is exhausted.
Sustaining Capital Impact: The company noted that sustaining capital is weighted for the first half of 2025, which could strain cash flow during that period.
New Gold (NGD) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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