MOMO Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MOMO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MOMO sees a +2.62% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.79% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -2.45%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MOMO Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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MOMO Earnings Analysis
Hello Group Inc Corporation (MOMO.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Surprise: Hello Group Inc. beats earnings expectations with reported EPS of $1.3, significantly higher than the expected $0.21.
Overseas Business Growth: The company’s overseas business maintained robust growth momentum, contributing meaningfully to the group’s financial standing.
Overseas App Revenue Surge: Standalone new app revenue increased by 37% year-over-year, driven by the rapid growth of the overseas business.
Adjusted Operating Income Analysis: Adjusted operating income from the Momo app and standalone new apps was RMB269 million, with a margin of 11.1%. Excluding film-related costs, adjusted operating income would have been RMB363 million, with a margin of 15%.
Special Cash Dividend Announcement: The company announced a special cash dividend of $0.30 per ADS, totaling approximately $50 million, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Overseas Business Expansion: The rapid expansion of overseas business, especially Soulchill, was a key driver behind sustained revenue growth, with total revenue from new apps up 40% year-over-year.
Business Localization Success: The company has successfully localized its overseas business and improved operational efficiency, leading to increased paying users and ARPPU.
Enhanced User Engagement: The introduction of AI-assisted chat tools and new interactive features has improved user experience and engagement on the Momo app.
Negative
Revenue Decline Analysis: Total group revenue decreased by 12% year-over-year in Q4 2024, indicating a decline in overall business performance.
Momo App Revenue Decline: Revenue from the Momo app decreased by 16% year-over-year, primarily due to proactive product adjustments and macroeconomic factors.
Revenue Decline Analysis: Tantan's revenue fell by 22% year-over-year, attributed to a decrease in the number of paying users.
Operating Income Decline: Adjusted operating income for Q4 was RMB280 million, down from RMB514.7 million in the same period last year, reflecting a significant drop in profitability.
Live Streaming Revenue Decline: Live streaming revenue for the Momo app decreased by 16% year-over-year, with a wider decline than previous quarters due to reduced revenue-oriented competition events.
Momo App Revenue Decline: Value-added services revenue from the Momo app decreased by 15% year-over-year, indicating challenges in monetization strategies.
Revenue Decline in Dating Apps: Tantan's total revenue for fiscal 2024 was RMB900 million, down 25% year-over-year, highlighting ongoing struggles in the dating app market.
User Retention Challenges: The company faced a 10% sequential decline in Tantan's monthly active users (MAU), indicating challenges in user retention and growth.
Gross Margin Decline: Non-GAAP gross margin decreased by 6.5 percentage points year-over-year, reflecting higher costs and a shift in revenue mix towards lower-margin overseas business.
Revenue Decline Forecast: The company anticipates a revenue decrease of 6.3% to 2.4% year-over-year for Q1 2025, indicating continued challenges ahead.
MOMO FAQs
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MOMO Earning Call Sentiment
Hello Group Inc. (NASDAQ:MOMO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
MOMO.O
5.44%Positive
The earnings call reveals declining revenues across core Momo and Tantan, with significant drops in paying users and live streaming revenue. Although management is optimistic about overseas growth and new apps, the vague 2025 guidance and strategic shift away from low-return users raise concerns. The special dividend is a positive note, but the overall sentiment is negative due to weak guidance and declining margins. Given the small market cap, the stock is likely to react negatively in the short term.
