MED Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MED performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MED sees a -0.36% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -7.36% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.73%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MED Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
119.00M
-37.70%
-15.10%
Gross Margin
74.13%
0.16%
-1.67%
Operating Margin
0.89%
-80.40%
-69.52%
Net Margin
0.67%
-78.80%
-17.28%
EPS
0.07
-87.27%
-30.00%
No Data Available
MED Earnings Analysis
Medifast Inc Corporation (MED.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Surprise Achievement: Medifast, Inc. beat earnings expectations with reported EPS of $0.1, exceeding expectations of $-0.16.
Revenue Per Coach Improvement: The company has seen a third consecutive quarter of moderating year-over-year declines in revenue per active earning coach, improving from a negative 22.2% in Q1 2024 to negative 5.5% in Q4 2024.
GLP-1 Medication Adoption Increase: The percentage of customers using GLP-1 medications rose to 17% at year-end, up from just over 3% at the beginning of 2024, indicating a successful adaptation to market changes.
GLP-1 Customer Support Growth: Approximately 44% of coaches were supporting at least one customer on a GLP-1 medication by year-end, up from 12% at the start of 2024, validating the company's focus on GLP-1 customers.
ASCEND Product Launch Success: The launch of the OPTAVIA ASCEND product line in December 2024 has been well received, with 17% of customer orders in January including ASCEND products, reflecting strong initial traction.
Cost Savings Initiative: The company achieved $21 million in cost savings through its Fuel for the Future initiative in 2024, exceeding initial targets, and anticipates additional savings of $15 million to $20 million in 2025.
Strong Financial Position: Medifast ended the year with a strong financial position, having $162.3 million in cash and no debt, providing flexibility for future investments.
Market Expansion Strategy: The company is committed to advancing clinical research and expanding product offerings, including potential entry into new categories such as women’s health, to broaden its market reach.
Negative
Fourth Quarter Revenue Decline: Revenue for the fourth quarter was $119 million, a decrease of 37.7% versus the year earlier period, primarily driven by a decrease in the number of active earning OPTAVIA coaches and lower coach productivity.
Customer Acquisition Challenges: Customer acquisition continues to be impacted by the growing adoption of GLP-1 medications.
Active Coach Decline: We ended the quarter with approximately 27,100 active earning OPTAVIA coaches, a decrease of 34.1% from the fourth quarter of 2023.
Decline in Coach Revenue: Average revenue per active earning OPTAVIA coach for the fourth quarter was $4,391, a year-over-year decline of 5.5%.
Gross Profit Decline: Gross profit decreased 37.6% year-over-year to $88.2 million driven by lower sales volumes.
Decline in Operating Income: Income from operations was $700,000 in the fourth quarter of 2024, down 91.8% versus the year earlier period, driven by lower gross profit.
Net Income Decline: Net income in the fourth quarter of 2024 was $800,000 or $0.07 per diluted share compared to $6 million or $0.55 per diluted share in the year earlier period.
SG&A Percentage Increase: SG&A as a percentage of revenue increased 400 basis points, primarily reflecting 550 basis points of the company-led marketing spend and 210 basis points of loss of leverage on fixed cost.
First Quarter Revenue Outlook: We are expecting our first quarter revenue to range from $100 million to $120 million reflecting continued customer acquisition challenges that we expect will continue through at least the first half of the year.
MED FAQs
How does MED typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is Medifast Inc (MED) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
MED Earning Call Sentiment
Medifast, Inc. (NYSE:MED) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
MED.N
0%Positive
The earnings call reveals several negative factors: significant revenue and coach productivity decline, ongoing customer acquisition challenges, and competitive pressures from GLP-1 medications. Despite a strong cash position and improved gross margin, the absence of a share repurchase program and negative EPS guidance further dampen sentiment. The Q&A section highlights management's cautious outlook and lack of clarity on certain metrics, reinforcing a negative sentiment. Overall, the company's challenges and uncertain guidance suggest a negative stock price movement in the short term.
