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The earnings call highlights increased production and sales, but financial health is strained with rising costs and significant adjusted EBITDA losses. The Q&A reveals uncertainty in strategic execution and timelines, along with unclear management responses. While revenue increased, the financial guidance is weak, and concerns about liquidity persist. These factors suggest a negative sentiment, likely leading to a stock price decline.
Sales of Black Mass 4,324 tonnes, a 3% increase from 4,192 tonnes in 2022.
Product Sales and Recycling Services Revenues $23.6 million, a 34% increase compared to $17.6 million in 2022, driven by a higher value product sales mix and higher recycling services revenues from new service contracts.
Total Revenue $18.3 million, compared to $16.5 million in the prior year, reflecting an unfavorable non-cash fair value pricing adjustment of $5.3 million versus $1.1 million in 2022 due to lower market prices for cobalt and nickel.
Cost of Sales $81.8 million, compared to $55.2 million in 2022, due to increased raw material acquisition costs and other production costs.
Variable and Fixed Costs Related to Black Mass and Shredded Metal Products $29.1 million, compared to $23.2 million in 2022, reflecting increased raw material acquisition costs.
Fixed and Other Costs for the Spoke Network $34.9 million, compared to $16.9 million in 2022, primarily due to higher personnel costs, leases, and depreciation from existing and new Spoke assets.
Cost Related to the Rochester Hub $7.4 million, compared to $2.6 million in 2022.
SG&A Expenses $93.4 million, compared to $81.3 million in 2022, primarily driven by higher personnel costs before implementing workforce reduction.
Research and Development Costs $5.7 million, compared to $2.7 million in 2022, primarily related to personnel costs and professional fees for the Portovesme Hub.
Other Income $24.7 million, a decrease of $27.2 million compared to the prior year, primarily due to a decrease in fair value gains on convertible debt.
Adjusted EBITDA Loss $166.4 million, compared to a loss of $118.5 million in 2022, driven by higher cost of sales and increased SG&A.
Cash and Cash Equivalents Approximately $71 million as of December 31, 2023, down from $35 million as of March 15, 2024.
Pro Forma Cash Estimate Approximately $110 million, including expected gross proceeds from Glencore financing of $75 million.
Total Cost Incurred on Rochester Hub Project Approximately $567 million, including total cash spend of $452 million and costs incurred but not yet paid of approximately $115 million.
Revised Estimated Project Cost for Rochester Hub Approximately $960 million for the MHP scope, up from the prior range of approximately $850 million to $1 billion.
Estimated Cost to Complete Rochester Hub Project Approximately $508 million, including costs incurred but not yet paid of approximately $115 million.
Black Mass Production: In 2023, Li-Cycle produced 6,825 tonnes of black mass, exceeding the revised guidance of 5,500 to 6,500 tonnes.
Partnership with Glencore: Li-Cycle expanded its partnership with Glencore, increasing their strategic investment by $75 million.
DOE Loan Process: Li-Cycle is engaged with the DOE for a conditional commitment for a loan of up to $375 million.
Cash Preservation Plan: Implemented a cash preservation plan to reduce non-core spending and slow cash outflows.
Rochester Hub Project: Conducted a comprehensive review of the Rochester Hub project, confirming the technical viability of producing lithium carbonate and MHP.
Project Development Strategy: Review confirmed a possible change in the project development strategy for the Rochester Hub, focusing on producing lithium carbonate and MHP.
Financing Risks: Li-Cycle is engaged in a strategic review of its financing options, including a conditional commitment for a loan of up to $375 million from the DOE. The need for significant additional funding before restarting construction at the Rochester Hub poses a risk to liquidity and operational continuity.
Project Development Risks: The Rochester Hub project has incurred costs of approximately $567 million, with an estimated total project cost of around $960 million. The increase in estimated costs and the pause in construction raise concerns about project viability and future funding requirements.
Operational Challenges: Li-Cycle has slowed operations at its spokes network and paused construction at the Rochester Hub, which may impact production capacity and revenue generation. The company is also reviewing further pauses or slowdowns in operations.
Market Risks: The company faces competitive pressures and fluctuating market prices for cobalt and nickel, which have negatively impacted revenues and pricing adjustments. The reliance on market prices for metals in contracts adds to revenue uncertainty.
Supply Chain Risks: The availability of feedstock for black mass production is tied to local market conditions and strategic customers, which may affect production levels and operational efficiency.
Regulatory Risks: Li-Cycle's operations and financing strategies are subject to regulatory scrutiny, particularly in relation to the DOE loan process and compliance with environmental regulations.
Partnership with Glencore: Expanded partnership with Glencore to increase their strategic investment in Li-Cycle by $75 million.
DOE Loan Process: Engaged with the DOE Loan Programs Office regarding a conditional commitment for a loan of up to $375 million.
Cash Preservation Plan: Implemented a cash preservation plan to reduce non-core spending and slow cash outflows.
Rochester Hub Review: Conducted an internal review to assess a possible change in the project development strategy for the Rochester Hub.
Black Mass Production: Produced 6,825 tonnes of black mass in 2023, exceeding guidance of 5,500 to 6,500 tonnes.
Spoke Operations: Slowed operations at spokes and paused construction at the Rochester Hub.
Rochester Hub Cost Estimate: Revised estimated project cost for the Rochester Hub to approximately $960 million.
Future Revenue Expectations: Expect significant additional funding required before restarting construction of the Rochester Hub.
Cash Position: Estimated pro forma cash to be approximately $110 million post-Glencore financing.
Market Demand: Projected demand for recycling material to increase by up to six times from 2023 levels by 2030.
Production Strategy: Focus on Gen-3 spokes to support key customers and drive down costs.
Glencore Investment: Li-Cycle expanded its partnership with Glencore, securing an additional investment of $75 million in a senior secured convertible note.
Existing Convertible Note: The terms of the existing Glencore convertible unsecured note, with an outstanding principal of approximately $225 million, were amended to include extended maturities and a reset conversion price.
Total Project Cost: The revised estimated project cost for the Rochester Hub project is approximately $960 million.
Cash Position: As of March 15, 2024, Li-Cycle had cash and cash equivalents of approximately $35 million, with expected gross proceeds from Glencore financing of $75 million.
Pro Forma Cash Estimate: Pro forma cash is estimated to be approximately $110 million after accounting for the Glencore financing.
The earnings call reflects positive sentiment due to strategic financing through a DOE loan, strong long-term strategy with secured offtake agreements, and expected significant revenue growth. Financial metrics show improved revenue and cost management, despite some operational risks and market dynamics challenges. The 10% production tax credit further supports the positive outlook. The absence of negative sentiment in the Q&A section reinforces the positive rating. The stock is likely to react positively in the short term, with potential gains between 2% to 8%.
The earnings call highlights increased production and sales, but financial health is strained with rising costs and significant adjusted EBITDA losses. The Q&A reveals uncertainty in strategic execution and timelines, along with unclear management responses. While revenue increased, the financial guidance is weak, and concerns about liquidity persist. These factors suggest a negative sentiment, likely leading to a stock price decline.
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