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Leafly's earnings call presents a challenging outlook with declining revenue, high account churn, and significant financial hurdles, including convertible notes maturing soon and NASDAQ compliance issues. Despite some positive metrics like improved EBITDA and cash position, the overall sentiment is negative due to industry headwinds and financial instability. The Q&A section did not alleviate these concerns significantly, as management focused on efficiency and customer relationships without providing clear growth catalysts. The lack of strategic updates and continued financial pressures suggest a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
Q4 Revenue $9.75 million, down 19.5% year-over-year and down 8% sequentially.
Adjusted EBITDA Positive $1.16 million, an improvement from negative $231,000 in Q3.
Cash Position $15.3 million, an increase of 5.7% quarter-over-quarter.
Ending Retail Accounts 4,075 accounts, a 30% reduction year-over-year and an 8.8% decline quarter-over-quarter.
Retail ARPA $672, up 21% year-over-year due to the removal of nonpaying accounts.
Brand Revenue $1.4 million, up 6.2% sequentially due to a stronger holiday season.
Total Gross Margin 89.2%, improved from 88% a year earlier due to headcount reductions and reviews of business platform costs.
Operating Expenses $8.6 million, down 48% year-over-year.
Revenue per Employee $74,000, a 25% increase year-over-year.
Full Year Adjusted EBITDA Negative $2.3 million, compared to negative $23.2 million in 2022.
Bad Debt Expense as a Percentage of Revenue 4.3%, down from 8.9% in Q3.
Cash Burn in Q1 Expected to be around $1.5 million.
Convertible Notes $29.7 million due in January 2025, leading to a going concern qualification.
New Product Development: Leafly is working on a prototype AI Budtender, utilizing proprietary data to enhance user experience.
Platform Improvements: Introduced an order API to streamline retailer integration and enhance consumer experience.
Deals Engine Enhancements: Improved the deals engine to increase deal volume and reduce retailer effort in loading new deals.
Market Expansion: Significant growth in Missouri and Maryland following the launch of recreational sales.
New Market Opportunities: Ohio legalized adult recreational use, presenting a potential $1 billion market opportunity.
International Expansion: Germany is set to legalize adult-use cannabis, contributing to global legalization momentum.
Operational Efficiency: Achieved a positive adjusted EBITDA of $1.16 million in Q4, improved from negative $231,000 in Q3.
Cost Reduction: Streamlined operations, resulting in $25 million in cost savings during 2023.
Employee Reduction: Reduced headcount by 36% year-over-year to 131 employees, focusing on sales team expansion.
Strategic Shift: Proactively terminated relationships with underperforming retailers to strengthen customer base.
Sales Strategy: Hired 8 new sales personnel to enhance market penetration and customer engagement.
Macroeconomic Challenges: 2023 was a turbulent year across the cannabis industry, with macroeconomic and industry-wide headwinds impacting Leafly's business.
Profitability Issues: Less than 25% of the cannabis sector is profitable, reflecting challenging operating conditions for retailers and brands.
Customer Retention Risks: Nonpaying customers reached a high point in Q3, leading to a strategic focus on collections and the removal of underperforming retailers.
Retail Account Decline: Ending retail accounts decreased by 30% year-over-year and 8.8% quarter-over-quarter, indicating a significant reduction in customer base.
Cash Flow Concerns: The company is facing a going concern qualification due to $29.7 million in convertible notes due in January 2025, raising liquidity concerns.
NASDAQ Compliance Risks: Leafly expects to receive a notification of noncompliance from NASDAQ due to not meeting continued listing standards.
Economic Environment: The cannabis industry continues to face a difficult environment, impacting revenue and growth opportunities.
Bad Debt Management: Despite improvements, bad debt expense as a percentage of revenue remains a concern, moving from 8.9% in Q3 to 4.3% in Q4.
Focus on Efficiency: Leafly is concentrating on improving business efficiency to strengthen its path to profitability while delivering value to partners.
Retail Account Management: The company is strategically focusing on collections and has proactively terminated relationships with underperforming and nonpaying retailers to build a healthier customer base.
Sales Team Expansion: Leafly has bolstered its sales team by hiring new market and acquisition managers to improve penetration in key markets and pursue new opportunities.
Product Enhancements: The company is enhancing consumer experience through improvements in deals functionality, delivery offerings, and search capabilities.
AI Development: Leafly is working on a prototype AI Budtender to enhance user experience, leveraging its proprietary data set.
Market Expansion: The company is preparing for new state markets and international opportunities, including Ohio and Germany, which could significantly impact revenue.
Q1 2024 Revenue Guidance: Leafly expects revenue of around $9 million for Q1 2024.
Q1 2024 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: The company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA loss of approximately negative $1 million for Q1 2024.
Long-term Financial Outlook: Leafly is focused on operational efficiency and exploring options to address its balance sheet and convertible notes due in January 2025.
ARPA Stability: Retail ARPA is expected to stabilize around $672, with no significant movement anticipated in the short term.
Shareholder Return Plan: Leafly has not announced any specific share buyback or dividend program during the call. The focus has been on improving operational efficiency and managing cash flow.
The earnings call highlights several concerns: payment delinquencies affecting revenue, a 6.4% decline in retail accounts, and an inability to provide specific guidance on returning to growth. Although there are positive aspects like operational efficiency and partnerships, the financial results show a year-over-year revenue decline and risks related to convertible notes. The Q&A section reveals uncertainty about future growth and Nasdaq compliance. These factors suggest a negative sentiment, likely leading to a stock price decrease of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
Leafly's earnings call presents a challenging outlook with declining revenue, high account churn, and significant financial hurdles, including convertible notes maturing soon and NASDAQ compliance issues. Despite some positive metrics like improved EBITDA and cash position, the overall sentiment is negative due to industry headwinds and financial instability. The Q&A section did not alleviate these concerns significantly, as management focused on efficiency and customer relationships without providing clear growth catalysts. The lack of strategic updates and continued financial pressures suggest a likely negative stock price movement in the short term.
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