Intel Corporation (INTC) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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Overview

The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal several concerns: Intel's cautious revenue outlook, margin pressures from product transitions, supply constraints, and lack of specific guidance on key projects like Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids. Despite some positive developments in AI and partnerships, the lack of clear timelines and yield improvements, along with uncertainties in gross margins and CapEx, suggest a negative sentiment. The absence of guidance for 2026, coupled with margin and supply chain challenges, outweighs the positive aspects, leading to a predicted stock price decline of -2% to -8%.

Key Financial Performance

Third quarter revenue $13.7 billion, up 6% sequentially. Reasons for change: Driven by continued strength in core markets, healthy customer purchasing behavior, and tightened industry supply.

Non-GAAP gross margin 40%, 4 percentage points better than guidance. Reasons for change: Higher revenue, favorable mix, and lower inventory reserves, partially offset by higher volume of Lunar Lake and early ramp of Intel 18A.

Third quarter earnings per share (EPS) $0.23 versus guidance of breakeven EPS. Reasons for change: Higher revenue, stronger gross margins, and continued cost discipline.

Q3 operating cash flow $2.5 billion. Reasons for change: Not explicitly mentioned.

Gross CapEx in Q3 $3 billion. Reasons for change: Not explicitly mentioned.

Adjusted free cash flow in Q3 $900 million. Reasons for change: Not explicitly mentioned.

Cash and short-term investments at the end of Q3 $30.9 billion. Reasons for change: Includes $5.7 billion from the U.S. government, $2 billion from SoftBank Group, $4.3 billion from the Altera closure, and $900 million from the Mobileye stake sale.

Debt repayment in Q3 $4.3 billion. Reasons for change: Part of prioritizing deleveraging by paying maturities as they come due.

Intel products revenue $12.7 billion, up 7% sequentially. Reasons for change: Above expectations across client and server, tight capacity environment, and adjusted pricing and mix to shift demand.

CCG revenue $8.5 billion, up 8% quarter-over-quarter. Reasons for change: Seasonally stronger TAM, Windows 11-driven refresh, and stronger pricing mix with the ramp of Lunar Lake and Arrow Lake.

PC AI revenue $4.1 billion, up 5% sequentially. Reasons for change: Improved product mix and higher enterprise demand.

Intel Foundry revenue $4.2 billion, down 4% sequentially. Reasons for change: Not explicitly mentioned.

Operating profit for Intel products $3.7 billion, 29% of revenue, up $972 million quarter-over-quarter. Reasons for change: Stronger product margin, lower operating expenses, and favorable comparison due to period costs in Q2.

Intel Foundry operating loss in Q3 $2.3 billion, better by $847 million sequentially. Reasons for change: Favorable comparison due to the approximately $800 million impairment charge in Q2.

Revenue from all other segments $1 billion, with Altera contributing $386 million, down 6% sequentially. Reasons for change: Intra-quarter closure of Altera.

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Operating Highlights

Panther Lake SKU: On track to launch the first Panther Lake SKU by year-end, followed by additional SKUs in the first half of next year. This will solidify Intel's position in the notebook segment across consumer and enterprise markets.

Arrow Lake and Nova Lake: Arrow Lake shipments have increased throughout the year, and the next-generation Nova Lake product will bring new architecture and software upgrades, particularly for the PC gaming space.

Granite Rapids: Strong demand for Granite Rapids in traditional servers, driven by AI workloads and capacity expansion.

AI capabilities: Delivering AI capabilities to Xeon, AI PCs, Arc GPUs, and open software stack. Plans to launch successive generations of inference-optimized GPUs annually.

Collaboration with NVIDIA: Intel and NVIDIA are collaborating to create a new class of products that accelerate AI adoption across hyperscale, enterprise, and consumer markets.

Intel Foundry: Intel Foundry is making progress on Intel 18A and 14A nodes, with Fab 52 in Arizona now fully operational. Advanced packaging activities like EMIB and EMIB-T are progressing well.

Balance sheet improvement: Improved cash position and liquidity through accelerated funding from the U.S. government, investments from NVIDIA and SoftBank, and monetizing portions of Altera and Mobileye.

Central Engineering Group: Created to unify horizontal engineering functions, eliminate duplications, and enhance coherence across product development.

AI-driven strategy: Intel is positioning itself as a leader in AI inference workloads, which are expected to be a larger market than AI training workloads. The company is focusing on partnerships and product differentiation.

Foundry business: Intel Foundry is focusing on disciplined investments and building trust with external customers to capitalize on the growing demand for wafers and advanced packaging services.

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Risk or Challenges

Macroeconomic Volatility: The company remains vigilant regarding macroeconomic volatility, which could impact customer purchasing behavior and inventory levels.

Capacity Constraints: Capacity constraints, especially on Intel 10 and Intel 7, limited the ability to fully meet demand in Q3 for both data center and client products. This tight capacity environment is expected to persist into 2026.

Competitive Pressures: Intense competition in the high-end desktop market and the need to improve multi-threading capabilities to regain market share in traditional servers.

Supply Chain Challenges: Supply constraints limited additional upside in Q3, particularly for AI servers and storage compute.

Product Mix and Cost Challenges: The impact of the first shipments of Core Ultra 3, which has higher costs in the early stages of a new product ramp, is expected to affect gross margins in Q4.

Foundry Business Risks: Building a world-class foundry is a long-term effort requiring trust and significant investment. The company must ensure its processes meet diverse customer needs for power, performance, yield, cost, and schedule.

Regulatory and Strategic Execution Risks: The company’s reliance on U.S. government funding and partnerships introduces risks tied to regulatory and strategic execution.

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Guidance & Outlook

Revenue Expectations: Intel forecasts Q4 revenue in the range of $12.8 billion to $13.8 billion, with a midpoint of $13.3 billion. This is roughly flat quarter-over-quarter after adjusting for the Altera deconsolidation. The company expects Intel products revenue to increase modestly sequentially, while Intel Foundry revenue is expected to grow due to increased Intel 18A revenue and external foundry revenue.

Margin Projections: Intel forecasts a Q4 gross margin of approximately 36.5%, down sequentially due to product mix, early-stage costs of Core Ultra 3 shipments, and the deconsolidation of Altera.

Capital Expenditures: Intel anticipates gross capital investment of approximately $18 billion in 2025 and plans to deploy more than $27 billion of CapEx in 2025, compared to $17 billion in 2024.

Market Trends and Business Segment Performance: Intel expects the client consumption TAM to approach 290 million units in 2025, marking two straight years of growth. The company is optimistic about the growth of AI infrastructure, which is driving demand for server CPUs and advanced packaging services. Intel Foundry is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for wafers and advanced packaging services, with projections indicating a greater than 10x increase in AI capacity by 2030.

Product Launches and Strategic Plans: Intel plans to launch its first Panther Lake SKU by year-end, followed by additional SKUs in the first half of next year. The company is also preparing for the ramp of Core Ultra 3 into a healthy PC ecosystem in 2026. Successive generations of inference-optimized GPUs are planned on an annual cadence to meet enterprise needs. Intel Foundry is advancing its Intel 18A and 14A technologies, with Intel 18A yields progressing predictably and Fab 52 in Arizona now fully operational.

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Shareholder Return Plan

The selected topic was not discussed during the call.

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Key Q&A

Q:Do any of the collaborative announcements or equity investments contribute to the increased confidence in the foundry business?

A:Lip-Bu Tan mentioned that announcements like SoftBank's AI infrastructure build-up contribute to the increased confidence. He also highlighted progress in 18A and 14A technologies, yield improvements, and advanced packaging demands from key customers.

Q:What are the factors affecting gross margins in 2026, and how does the foundry gross margin impact Intel products' gross margin?

A:David Zinsner explained that Altera's absence in 2026 numbers is a margin headwind. He noted that Lunar Lake and Panther Lake products are initially dilutive but improve over time. Foundry gross margins are expected to improve due to scale dynamics and leading-edge mix, which will positively impact overall gross margins.

Q:How are customer commitments influencing foundry investments, and how is Intel addressing the chicken-and-egg aspect of these investments?

A:Lip-Bu Tan emphasized building trust with customers through yield improvement, reliability, and specific IP. David Zinsner added that customers understand the time required for capital deployment and that Intel has flexibility due to prior CapEx investments.

Q:What is causing supply constraints in server CPUs and other CPUs, and how will these shortages be resolved?

A:David Zinsner stated that shortages are across the business, particularly in Intel 10 and 7. He mentioned substrate shortages and increased demand as contributing factors. Intel is managing by using inventory and demand shaping, with improvements expected over time.

Q:What is the outlook for demand outpacing supply into 2026, and how does it affect Q1 trends?

A:David Zinsner noted that demand outpaces supply in both server and client markets. He expects Q1 to be the peak of shortages, with improvements later in the year. Seasonality trends may not be bucked due to tight supply in Q1.

Q:How has Intel's improved cash position influenced investments in CapEx or product businesses?

A:David Zinsner stated that the focus is on deleveraging and disciplined CapEx investments based on demand. Intel plans to maintain $16 billion in OpEx investment for next year while optimizing its allocation for growth and returns.

Q:Is the $18 billion CapEx target for 2023 still valid, and what is the timing for 18A capacity ramp-up?

A:David Zinsner confirmed the $18 billion CapEx target, noting that CapEx can be lumpy. He stated that significant 18A capacity increases are not expected in the near term, with investments continuing over time.

Q:What is the gross margin trajectory as 18A layers in, and how do 18A yields compare to successful past products?

A:David Zinsner explained that 18A yields are adequate for supply but need improvement for better margins. He expects yields to reach industry-acceptable levels by the end of next year or the year after. He also noted that 14A is off to a better start compared to 18A at a similar maturity stage.

Q:How is Intel addressing the transition from older products to newer AI-focused products?

A:David Zinsner stated that AI products are performing well, with sequential double-digit growth. He emphasized the need to drive ecosystem applications for AI PCs and noted that the Windows refresh is also driving demand for older products like Raptor Lake.

Q:What is the status of Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids in the data center roadmap?

A:Lip-Bu Tan mentioned strong hyperscale feedback for Diamond Rapids and highlighted Coral Rapids' inclusion of SMT for higher performance. He stated that the roadmap is being defined and will be executed going forward.

Q:What is the scope of Intel's fixed-function computing and ASIC support?

A:Lip-Bu Tan explained that Intel is enhancing x86 IP and building purpose-built silicon for systems and cloud players. He highlighted the role of foundry and packaging in meeting customer requirements and driving growth in AI.

Q:What is the status of the NVIDIA collaboration, and how does it impact Intel's AI strategy?

A:Lip-Bu Tan described the collaboration as a multi-year effort to create new products optimized for the AI era. David Zinsner added that the partnership expands Intel's TAM and is not attacking existing markets.

Q:What is Intel's strategy for attacking the AI inference market?

A:Lip-Bu Tan stated that Intel is revitalizing x86 to tailor it for AI workloads and is partnering with incumbents and emerging companies to address the market. He emphasized the importance of power efficiency and managing AI agents.

Q:What is the outlook for noncontrolling interest (NCI) expense into 2026?

A:David Zinsner estimated NCI expense to be in the range of $1.2 billion to $1.4 billion in 2026 and stated that Intel is focused on minimizing it.

Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses

A:Management avoided providing specific guidance for 2026 gross margins, stating that they would not guide for that year. Additionally, they did not provide a clear timeline for Diamond Rapids and Coral Rapids launches, only mentioning that the roadmap is being defined. On 18A yields, while they stated that yields are adequate for supply, they avoided giving specific yield percentages or comparisons to past successful products. Similarly, they did not provide detailed financial impacts or timelines for the NVIDIA collaboration, describing it as a multi-year effort without specifics.

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Earnings Word Cloud

The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call

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