HLT Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how HLT performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, HLT sees a -2.72% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.19% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.12%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
HLT Key Earning Data
HLT Earnings Analysis
Positive
RevPAR Growth Exceeds Expectations: System wide RevPAR increased 3.5% year over year in Q4, driven by strong leisure and business transient demand, exceeding guidance expectations.
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Increase: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 reached $858 million, up 7% year over year, surpassing the high end of guidance due to better than expected RevPAR growth and lower corporate expenses.
Record Hotel Openings: Hilton opened 171 hotels in Q4, totaling nearly 23,000 rooms, contributing to a record net unit growth of 7.3% for the full year, the largest increase in the company's history.
Shareholder Returns and Dividends: The company returned $3 billion to shareholders in 2024 through buybacks and dividends, with a quarterly cash dividend of $0.15 per share authorized for 2025.
Development Pipeline Expansion: The development pipeline grew 8% year over year, totaling approximately 500,000 rooms, with 154,000 rooms signed in 2024, marking an 18% increase and the largest signing year to date.
Negative
RevPAR Growth Slowdown: System wide RevPAR growth for the full year 2025 is expected to be only 2% to 3%, indicating a slowdown compared to previous years' performance.
Decline in RevPAR: China's RevPAR declined by 4% in the fourth quarter due to softer macro conditions and outbound travel, highlighting ongoing challenges in that market.
Q1 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the first quarter of 2025 is projected to be between $770 million and $790 million, reflecting a tougher comparison against prior year results.
Earnings Per Share Forecast: The diluted earnings per share for 2025 is expected to be between $7.71 and $7.82, which is lower than previous expectations due to higher borrowing costs from re-leveraging the balance sheet.
Business Demand Recovery Outlook: The company anticipates a modest recovery in business transient demand, but overall growth remains uncertain amid economic fluctuations and regulatory changes.
HLT FAQs
How does HLT typically perform around its earnings report dates?
HLT's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a -2.72% change leading up to the report and a +1.19% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc (HLT) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
HLT Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Hilton Worldwide Q4 2024 beats EPS forecast
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