Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's my analysis for GNTX stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $24.77, showing a bearish trend in the near term. Key technical indicators suggest:

• RSI-14 at 33.33 indicates oversold conditions
• MACD is bearish with -1.01, showing continued downward momentum
• Stock is trading below its 20-day moving average of $26.22, indicating short-term weakness
• Fibonacci support levels at $24.46 and $24.12 could provide near-term price floors

Fundamental Analysis

Recent Q4 2024 earnings report revealed:

• Revenue declined 8% YoY to $541.6M
• EPS of $0.39 vs expected $0.49
• Gross margin decreased to 32.5% from 34.5% YoY
• Full year 2024 revenue reached record $2.31B (+1% YoY)

Forward Outlook

• Management projects 2025 revenue between $2.4-2.45B
• Targeting 35% gross margin by end of 2025
• Expects 300,000 unit growth in Full Display Mirror shipments for 2025
• Company continues share repurchase program with 9.4M shares remaining

Recommendation: HOLD

While the stock appears oversold technically, several headwinds exist:

• Weaker vehicle production forecast in primary markets
• Margin pressure from product mix changes
• Lower than expected Full Display Mirror shipments

However, positive factors include:

• Strong cash flow generation
• Ongoing share repurchases
• New product innovations showcased at CES 2025
• Record annual sales despite market challenges

Based on the provided data and recent earnings report, I'll analyze GNTX's price prediction for 2025.

Current Market Position The stock is currently trading at $24.77, showing significant weakness after Q4 2024 earnings miss and lower guidance for 2025.

2025 Outlook Analysis

1. Revenue Guidance

• 2025 revenue guidance: $2.4-2.45 billion
• Below analyst consensus of $2.6 billion
• Targeting 7% revenue outgrowth versus primary markets

2. Growth Drivers

• Full Display Mirror (FDM) unit shipments expected to grow by 300,000 units
• New product launches with Renault and Volkswagen
• VOXX International acquisition expected to close by Q1 2025

3. Margin Outlook

• 2025 gross margin target: 33.5%-34.5%
• Operating expenses projected between $310-320 million

Price Target Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's the 2025 price prediction:

Base Case: $32-34

• Forward P/E of 16.32 [Relevant Data]
• Expected earnings improvement from new product launches
• Margin expansion from current 32.5% to targeted 34.5%

Bull Case: $36-38

• Successful VOXX integration
• Better-than-expected FDM adoption
• Margin exceeding 35% target

Bear Case: $22-24

• Continued automotive market weakness
• Further margin pressure
• Integration challenges with VOXX acquisition

Most Likely Scenario: Base Case The company's strong track record in innovation and established market position supports the base case scenario, despite near-term headwinds.

The S1 support level for GNTX Stock is $24.3 ,The R1 resistant level for GNTX Stock is $25.02.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of GNTX Stock was $24.37.

The target price for GNTX Stock according to analyst rating is 31.30, with the highest price target at 32.50 and the lowest at 29.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on GNTX Stock overall.

The market cap of GNTX is $5.5B.

Based on the provided data and current market context, I'll analyze whether GNTX is overvalued.

Technical Analysis

Valuation Analysis

Current Valuation Assessment: GNTX is currently trading at a forward P/E of 17.8x, which is below its historical average and appears reasonable given the company's market position and growth prospects. The company's EV/EBITDA of 12.5x suggests moderate valuation levels compared to industry peers.

Recent Performance and Outlook: The stock recently experienced an 8% decline following Q4 2024 earnings miss, with revenue falling to $541.6M (8% YoY decrease) and EPS of $0.39 versus expected $0.49. Despite near-term challenges, the company projects 7% revenue outgrowth versus primary markets in 2025, targeting revenue between $2.4B-$2.45B.

Growth and Innovation: The company continues to demonstrate strong innovation capabilities, particularly in Full Display Mirror (FDM) technology, which saw 21% growth in 2024. New product launches and technological advancements showcased at CES 2025 indicate solid future growth potential.

Conclusion: At current price levels around $24.77, GNTX appears fairly valued considering its market leadership position, solid growth prospects, and recent price correction following earnings disappointment. The company's strong innovation pipeline and projected outgrowth versus market suggest potential upside from current levels.

Gentex Corporation is a designer, developer, manufacturer, marketer, and supplier of digital vision, connected car, dimmable glass, and fire protection products. The Company provides automatic-dimming and non-automatic-dimming rearview mirrors and electronics for the automotive industry; dimmable aircraft windows for the aviation industry; and commercial smoke alarms and signaling devices for the fire protection industry. The Company's business segment involves designing, developing, manufacturing and marketing interior and exterior automatic-dimming automotive rearview mirrors that utilize proprietary electrochromic technology to dim in proportion to the amount of headlight glare from trailing vehicle headlamps. Within this business segment, the Company also designs, develops and manufactures various electronics that are value added features to the interior and exterior automotive rearview mirrors as well as electronics for interior visors, and overhead consoles.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's the price prediction for GNTX stock by 2030:

GNTX stock is projected to reach $35-38 by 2030, driven by the company's continued expansion in Full Display Mirror technology and new product innovations in dimming devices. The growth trajectory is supported by Gentex's strong market position in automotive technology and its strategic focus on advanced features like Driver Monitoring Systems, though tempered by near-term challenges in light vehicle production markets.

This projection considers:

1. The company's demonstrated ability to achieve record sales ($2.31 billion in 2024) despite market headwinds
2. Ongoing innovation in core technologies showcased at CES 2025, including advancements in dimming technology and driver monitoring systems
3. The company's target of 7% revenue outgrowth versus primary markets, indicating sustained competitive advantage

GNTX has a total of 6245 employees.