The chart below shows how GEL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, GEL sees a +2.27% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.81% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.34%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Offshore Pipeline Growth Forecast: Expected 20%+ sequential growth in the Offshore Pipeline Transportation segment in 2025 due to new contracted developments Shenandoah and Salamanca, with first production anticipated in Q2.
Marine Transportation Outlook: Marine Transportation segment projected to deliver record results in 2025, driven by increased operational days and steady to rising day rates across all vessel classes.
Future EBITDA Projections: Adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2025 is approximately $700 million, with potential for $800 million in 2026 if soda ash prices recover, indicating strong financial performance ahead.
Offshore Project Production Boost: Successful completion of offshore construction projects, including the Shenandoah FPU, expected to enhance production capacity by nearly 200,000 barrels of oil per day, contributing to future cash flows.
Cost-Saving Initiatives Impact: Implementation of cost-saving initiatives is expected to improve operating performance and position the company to benefit from future market recoveries in the soda ash sector.
Negative
Soda Ash Margin Stability: The soda ash segment is expected to perform at or near the same margin levels as 2024, indicating no growth despite operational improvements, reflecting a stagnant market environment.
Offshore Production Cash Flow Loss: Operating issues at offshore production facilities have led to a reduction in cash flow, with estimates suggesting a potential loss of $5 million to $10 million per quarter if production remains offline throughout 2025.
Soda Ash Market Outlook: The soda ash market is anticipated to remain well supplied, with prices expected to stay below cash costs for high-cost producers, limiting revenue potential in the near term.
Stagnant Segment Performance: Despite efforts to reduce costs, the overall performance of the Onshore Facilities and Transportation segment is expected to mirror last year's results, indicating a lack of growth or improvement.
Soda Ash Market Challenges: The company is facing challenges in the soda ash market due to mixed demand and elevated inventories, which are expected to persist into 2025, hindering price recovery.
Earnings call transcript: Genesis Energy's Q4 2024 results fall short
GEL.N
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