GEL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how GEL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, GEL sees a +2.27% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.81% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.34%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
GEL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
725.55M
-6.27%
1.58%
Gross Margin
11.84%
10.34%
29.54%
Operating Margin
10.35%
22.20%
47.23%
Net Margin
-5.69%
-314.72%
337.69%
EPS
-0.58
-625.00%
81.25%
No Data Available
GEL Earnings Analysis
Genesis Energy LP Corporation (GEL.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Offshore Pipeline Growth Forecast: Expected 20%+ sequential growth in the Offshore Pipeline Transportation segment in 2025 due to new contracted developments Shenandoah and Salamanca, with first production anticipated in Q2.
Marine Transportation Outlook: Marine Transportation segment projected to deliver record results in 2025, driven by increased operational days and steady to rising day rates across all vessel classes.
Future EBITDA Projections: Adjusted EBITDA forecast for 2025 is approximately $700 million, with potential for $800 million in 2026 if soda ash prices recover, indicating strong financial performance ahead.
Offshore Project Production Boost: Successful completion of offshore construction projects, including the Shenandoah FPU, expected to enhance production capacity by nearly 200,000 barrels of oil per day, contributing to future cash flows.
Cost-Saving Initiatives Impact: Implementation of cost-saving initiatives is expected to improve operating performance and position the company to benefit from future market recoveries in the soda ash sector.
Negative
Soda Ash Margin Stability: The soda ash segment is expected to perform at or near the same margin levels as 2024, indicating no growth despite operational improvements, reflecting a stagnant market environment.
Offshore Production Cash Flow Loss: Operating issues at offshore production facilities have led to a reduction in cash flow, with estimates suggesting a potential loss of $5 million to $10 million per quarter if production remains offline throughout 2025.
Soda Ash Market Outlook: The soda ash market is anticipated to remain well supplied, with prices expected to stay below cash costs for high-cost producers, limiting revenue potential in the near term.
Stagnant Segment Performance: Despite efforts to reduce costs, the overall performance of the Onshore Facilities and Transportation segment is expected to mirror last year's results, indicating a lack of growth or improvement.
Soda Ash Market Challenges: The company is facing challenges in the soda ash market due to mixed demand and elevated inventories, which are expected to persist into 2025, hindering price recovery.
GEL FAQs
How does GEL typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is Genesis Energy LP (GEL) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
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GEL Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Genesis Energy's Q4 2024 results fall short
GEL.N
1.84%Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook: strong performance in marine transportation and plans for shareholder returns contrast with challenges in soda ash pricing, regulatory constraints, and high debt levels. The Q&A session did not provide clarity on key issues, such as distribution increases and offshore challenges, reflecting uncertainty. Despite potential future growth, the near-term outlook is constrained by these factors, leading to a neutral sentiment. Given the company's small-cap status, stock price volatility is possible, but a significant short-term movement is unlikely.
