CNC Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how CNC performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CNC sees a +0.12% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.47% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.18%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
CNC Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
40.80B
3.41%
-2.90%
Gross Margin
8.35%
-1.53%
-5.76%
Operating Margin
0.45%
364.71%
-71.88%
Net Margin
0.69%
590.00%
-59.17%
EPS
0.56
600.00%
-58.82%
No Data Available
CNC Earnings Analysis
Centene Corp Corporation (CNC.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Power Demonstrated: Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 2024 was reported at $0.80, with a full year adjusted diluted EPS of $7.17, exceeding previous guidance and demonstrating strong earnings power.
Revenue Guidance Increase: Centene raised its full year 2025 revenue guidance by $4 billion, now expecting total revenue between $158 billion and $160 billion, reflecting better-than-expected results during the Medicare annual enrollment period and Medicaid program expansion.
Medicaid Membership Stabilization: Medicaid membership is projected to stabilize at approximately 13 million members, with a mid-4% composite rate adjustment achieved, supporting a return to target Medicaid margins.
Medicare Quality Improvement: In the Medicare segment, 55% of members are now associated with plans rated 3.5 stars or better, a significant increase from 23% last year, indicating improved quality and performance metrics.
Marketplace Segment Growth: The marketplace segment, Ambetter, is expected to peak at over 5 million members, with effectuated enrollment showing strong retention and demographic stability, positioning the company well for continued growth.
Negative
Q4 Adjusted EPS Decline: Adjusted diluted EPS for Q4 was $0.80, which is lower than expected, indicating potential challenges in profitability.
Higher Medical Costs Impact: The consolidated HBR was reported at 89.6%, with a full year consolidated HBR of 88.3%, suggesting higher medical costs than anticipated.
Operational Cash Flow Decline: Cash flow from operations was only $154 million for the full year, significantly lower than expected due to timing issues with pharmacy rebate collections and state premium payments receivable.
Medicaid HBR Increase: Medicaid HBR increased to 93.4%, up 30 basis points from the previous year, indicating rising medical costs and potential margin pressure.
Prior Year Development Impact: The company faced a $400 million prior year development (PYD) adjustment, which could negatively impact future earnings if trends do not improve.
CNC FAQs
How does CNC typically perform around its earnings report dates?
Is Centene Corp (CNC) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
CNC Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Centene Q4 2024 beats EPS forecast, stock dips
CNC.N
-7.22%Positive
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Positive elements include a strong EPS growth and optimistic guidance for 2025, along with a substantial share repurchase plan. However, concerns arise from weak operational cash flow, potential membership fluctuations in Medicaid, and unclear management responses about future risks. These factors balance each other out, leading to a neutral stock price prediction.
