CG Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how CG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CG sees a +2.04% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.78% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -3.16%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
CG Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.49B
95.31%
61.53%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
51.73%
196.96%
118.36%
Net Margin
41.41%
184.02%
155.30%
EPS
1.63
640.91%
307.50%
No Data Available
CG Earnings Analysis
The Carlyle Group Inc. Common Stock Corporation (CG.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Record Fee-Related Earnings: 1. Record Fee-Related Earnings: Carlyle achieved record quarterly fee-related earnings (FRE) of $278 million, representing a 36% increase compared to Q3 2023, with FRE margins reaching an all-time high of 47%.
Capital Raising Success: 2. Significant Capital Raising: The firm raised $9 billion in new capital during the quarter, contributing to a total of $43 billion raised over the past 12 months, with expectations for strong fundraising in Q4.
Private Equity Revenue Surge: 3. Strong Performance in Private Equity: The corporate private equity funds saw a nearly 30% increase in net accrued performance revenues, totaling $2.8 billion, which translates to approximately $8 per share of future earnings for shareholders.
Wealth Inflows Surge: 4. Record Wealth Inflows: Carlyle experienced record wealth inflows of $1.8 billion in the quarter, nearly three times the amount from the previous quarter, leading to a 70% year-over-year increase in global wealth AUM.
Share Repurchase Update: 5. Share Repurchase Program: The company repurchased $150 million of shares in Q3, bringing total repurchases to nearly $480 million year-to-date, with over $900 million remaining on the share repurchase authorization.
Negative
Declining Net IRR Performance: 1. Declining Net IRR: The net IRR for CP5 fell to 4%, indicating a significant drop in performance metrics despite an increase in accrued carry.
Management Fee Growth Analysis: 2. Subdued Management Fee Growth: Management fees grew only 2% year-on-year, reflecting a lack of substantial net asset growth amid larger outflows than fundraising.
Stock-Based Compensation Concerns: 3. High Stock-Based Compensation: Stock-based compensation is running between $120 million and $130 million, with expectations for a step-down in 2025, indicating potential future financial strain.
Stagnant Returns in Private Equity: 4. Underperformance in Corporate Private Equity: Despite strong EBITDA growth of 15% year-over-year, the net IRR in CP7 remained stagnant at 8%, suggesting challenges in translating performance into returns.
Share Repurchase vs. Growth: 5. Increased Share Repurchase but Limited Growth: While $150 million in shares were repurchased in Q3, the focus on organic growth may limit the ability to leverage excess capital for further expansion.
CG FAQs
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CG Earning Call Sentiment
The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
CG.O
1.1%Positive
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with increased FRE and AUM, a robust shareholder return plan through share repurchases, and positive market strategy with expected growth in capital markets fees. The Q&A highlights confidence in M&A activities and private equity performance, though some uncertainty around tariffs remains. Overall, the positive financial results, optimistic guidance, and strategic focus on shareholder returns suggest a positive stock price movement.