The chart below shows how CCJ performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, CCJ sees a +0.13% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.73% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.60%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Strong Cash Flow Generation: In the third quarter, Cameco reported nearly $1 billion in adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months, indicating strong cash flow generation across its businesses and investments.
Dividend Increase Announcement: The company increased its dividend from $0.12 in 2023 to $0.16 per common share for this year, reflecting confidence in its financial position and operational performance.
Production Forecast Increase: Production at the Key Lake Mill exceeded expectations, with an updated forecast of approximately 19 million pounds for 2024, up from the previous estimate of 18 million pounds.
Fuel Services Production Surge: Cameco's fuel services segment saw a 60% increase in production compared to the third quarter of the previous year, driven by the commissioning of a new closed-loop water system at Port Hope.
Uranium Supply Demand Surge: Long-term contract volumes increased from just over 50 million pounds at September 30th to about 90 million pounds as of mid-October, demonstrating growing utility interest in securing uranium supply.
Negative
Production Outlook Revision: 1. Decreased Production Outlook: Production at JV Inkai is now expected to be 7.7 million pounds for 2024, down from a previous estimate of 8.3 million pounds due to ongoing sulfuric acid supply challenges.
Equity Earnings Decline: 2. Lower Equity Earnings: Equity earnings from JV Inkai were lower this quarter because the company does not take ownership of production until it arrives at their refinery, resulting in a delay in revenue recognition.
Decreased Uranium Purchases: 3. Reduced Committed Purchases: Committed purchases for uranium were decreased from 9 million to 8 million pounds for 2024, indicating a cautious approach to inventory management amid market uncertainties.
Uranium Import Ban Effects: 4. Impact of Russian Uranium Ban: The U.S. ban on Russian uranium imports has created uncertainty in long-term contracting, which remained relatively slow in the first nine months of the year, affecting overall supply dynamics.
Cost Inflation Impact: 5. Increased Cost Pressures: The company is experiencing cost inflation across various segments, particularly in purchasing reagents and energy, which could impact future profitability despite efforts to bend the cost curve.
Cameco Corporation (CCJ) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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