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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call revealed a decline in revenue and cash reserves, with increased R&D expenses. Despite some positive aspects, such as reduced cost of goods sold, the lack of clear guidance and the management's evasive responses in the Q&A raise concerns. The absence of a strong catalyst or partnership announcement, combined with financial pressures, suggests a negative outlook for the stock price.
Revenue $3 million for Q4 2023, down from $3.3 million in Q4 2022, a decrease of 9%. The decline was attributed to the majority of wholesaler shipments being inventory reallocated within the Fresenius network, which did not translate into incremental revenue.
KORSUVA Injection Net Sales $5 million in Q4 2023, reflecting a 22% quarter-to-quarter demand growth. However, unfavorable reimbursement changes are expected to restrict access to KORSUVA, impacting future revenue.
Cost of Goods Sold $0.6 million for Q4 2023, down from $2.1 million in Q4 2022, a decrease of 71%. The reduction was mainly due to inventory adjustment charges rather than actual vials shipped.
Research and Development Expenses $28.4 million for Q4 2023, up from $26 million in Q4 2022, an increase of 9%. The rise was primarily due to increased clinical trial costs related to late-stage development programs, partially offset by a decrease in stock-based compensation.
General and Administrative Expenses $6.6 million for Q4 2023, essentially flat compared to $6.4 million in Q4 2022.
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Marketable Securities $100.8 million at December 31, 2023, down from $156.7 million at the same time in 2022, a decrease of 36%. The decline was primarily due to $92.1 million used in operating activities, offset by $36.5 million of net proceeds from the HCR agreement.
Oral Difelikefalin for Notalgia Paresthetica: Prioritized program with the highest likelihood of clinical and commercial success, aiming to become the first oral therapy for NP.
KORSUVA Injection: Generated net sales of $5 million in Q4 2023, with a 22% quarter-to-quarter demand growth.
Market Potential for Notalgia Paresthetica: Estimated 34 million US patients suffer from chronic pruritus, with 650,000 diagnosed NP patients, indicating a significant unmet need.
Cash Runway Extension: Extended cash runway into 2026 by prioritizing NP program and completing financing with HealthCare Royalty.
Enrollment in COURAGE I Study: Completed enrollment in the dose-finding portion ahead of schedule, with plans for additional sites in the pivotal program.
Strategic Focus Shift: Evolved strategy to focus on notalgia paresthetica, aiming for clinical and commercial success.
Regulatory Issues: Unfavorable reimbursement changes following the end of the TDAPA period on March 31, 2024, are expected to significantly restrict access to KORSUVA, impacting revenue contributions.
Supply Chain Challenges: The company anticipates modifications in treatment protocols by dialysis organizations due to reimbursement changes, which may affect the distribution and accessibility of KORSUVA.
Competitive Pressures: The market for notalgia paresthetica is currently underserved, but the lack of approved therapies means that competition could arise if other companies develop effective treatments.
Economic Factors: The overall economic environment and changes in healthcare policies could impact funding and operational costs, affecting the company's financial stability.
Clinical Development Risks: The success of the oral difelikefalin program is contingent on the outcomes of ongoing clinical trials, which carry inherent risks of failure or delays.
Strategic Focus: Cara has prioritized the oral difelikefalin program for notalgia paresthetica (NP), extending cash runway into 2026 to reach value inflection milestones.
Clinical Development: Enrollment in the Phase 2/3 COURAGE I study for oral difelikefalin has been completed ahead of schedule, with top-line results expected in Q3 2024.
Market Opportunity: Notalgia paresthetica is a highly underserved condition with an estimated 650,000 patients under care, presenting a significant market opportunity.
KORSUVA Injection: Despite a 22% growth in demand for KORSUVA injection, unfavorable reimbursement changes are expected to restrict access and limit future revenue.
Revenue Expectations: KORSUVA injection generated net sales of $5 million in Q4 2023, but future contributions are not expected due to reimbursement changes.
Cash Runway: Current cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities are projected to fund operations into 2026.
R&D Expenses: R&D expenses for Q4 2023 were $28.4 million, reflecting increased clinical trial costs.
Future Plans: The operating plan includes costs related to the pivotal program for notalgia paresthetica.
Cash Position: Cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities at December 31, 2023, totaled $100.8 million.
Cash Used in Operating Activities: $92.1 million of cash used in operating activities.
Net Proceeds from HCR Agreement: $36.5 million of net proceeds received from HCR.
Cash Runway: Current unrestricted cash is expected to fund operations into 2026.
The earnings call revealed a decline in revenue and cash reserves, with increased R&D expenses. Despite some positive aspects, such as reduced cost of goods sold, the lack of clear guidance and the management's evasive responses in the Q&A raise concerns. The absence of a strong catalyst or partnership announcement, combined with financial pressures, suggests a negative outlook for the stock price.
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