ATSG Earnings

ATSG reported its FY2024Q4 earnings on 2025-03-03, showcasing a revenue of 516.79M against an estimate of 521.36M, resulting in a -0.88% surprise. The EPS was 0.4, surpassing the expected 0.35 by 14.29% . The stock experienced a -0.13% price change on the earnings day and a -0.22% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

Following ATSG's FY2024Q4 earnings announcement on 2025-03-03, the stock price moved by -0.13% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a -0.22% change. Historically, ATSG's stock price tends to shift by an average of +2.11% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -2.29% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.

For 2025/Q1, analysts estimate ATSG’s annual revenue to reach 495.95M, while the EPS is projected at 0.24. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue No Change by 0% and EPS estimates No Change by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.

The correlation between ATSG's stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were No Change by 0%, while EPS estimates moved No Change by 0% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.

Based on historical trends, ATSG's stock price typically moves by +2.11% in the 10 days before its earnings and -2.29% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q1 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 0.24 and revenue of 495.95M.

The earnings call presents mixed signals. Financial performance is weak, with declining EPS and EBITDA, yet free cash flow remains positive. The new Amazon agreement is promising but lacks clarity on profitability. The Q&A reveals concerns over labor talks and cargo block hours, yet highlights potential improvements in Omni's performance. Overall, the sentiment is balanced by positive growth opportunities and stable financial health, resulting in a neutral outlook.