ATI Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ATI performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ATI sees a -0.18% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +6.63% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.19%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ATI Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.17B
10.22%
11.56%
Gross Margin
21.20%
9.67%
-0.89%
Operating Margin
13.97%
11.05%
0.07%
Net Margin
12.12%
-33.00%
47.09%
EPS
0.94
-26.56%
64.91%
No Data Available
ATI Earnings Analysis
Allegheny Technologies Inc Corporation (ATI.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Record Revenue Achievement: ATI Inc. reported Q4 2024 revenue of $1.2 billion, a 12% sequential increase and a 10% year-over-year growth, marking the highest revenue since 2012.
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Performance: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 was approximately $210 million, exceeding the guided range of $181 million to $191 million, reflecting strong operational performance.
Revenue and EBITDA Growth: Full year 2024 revenue reached nearly $4.4 billion, up 5% from 2023, with adjusted EBITDA margins approaching 17%, demonstrating effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Free Cash Flow Surge: Free cash flow for 2024 was $248 million, an increase of over 50% compared to the previous year, indicating strong cash generation capabilities.
Defense Business Growth: The defense business grew by 22% year-over-year, reaching $490 million in revenue, highlighting robust demand for ATI's advanced materials in critical sectors.
Negative
Margin Decline Analysis: Fourth quarter margins in HPMC declined 230 basis points sequentially to 20%, driven by over $6 million in charges related to ongoing customer negotiations and adjustments to incentive compensation.
Adjusted EBITDA Analysis: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 included approximately $18 million of non-operational favorability, indicating that the underlying adjusted EBITDA would have been only $192 million, which is below the high end of the guided range.
Free Cash Flow Shortfall: Full year 2024 free cash flow performance was lower than originally expected, despite achieving approximately $400 million in Q4, indicating reliance on divestiture proceeds that were not part of the initial plan.
Q1 2025 EBITDA Guidance: The guidance for Q1 2025 adjusted EBITDA is set at $170 million to $180 million, reflecting a modest recovery and potential delays in the aero ramp, which may indicate ongoing challenges in the market.
Adjusted EBITDA Guidance Update: The full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance range has been narrowed to $800 million to $840 million, suggesting a cautious outlook amid uncertainties in the aerospace and defense sectors.
ATI FAQs
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ATI Earning Call Sentiment
ATI Inc. (NYSE:ATI) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
ATI.N
-2.14%Positive
The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture: while there is strong demand in electronics and specialty energy, and a positive outlook for defense and HPMC segments, there are concerns over reduced EBITDA guidance and free cash flow. The Q&A highlights risks like tariffs and operational challenges, but management's evasive responses on customer concessions and union contracts add uncertainty. The share repurchase plan is a positive factor. Overall, the sentiment is balanced, leading to a neutral prediction for stock price movement.
