Should I Buy ASLE? ASLE 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy AerSale Corp (ASLE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

7.370

1 Day change

-0.14%

52 Week Range

9.120

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

ASLE is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The chart is mildly bullish, but fundamentals (latest quarter revenue decline and near-breakeven/negative earnings) and lukewarm Wall Street stance (Hold) don’t justify deploying $50k–$100k aggressively at current levels. Best fit today is HOLD (or only a small speculative starter position, not a full long-term buy).

Technical Analysis

Pre-market price is ~7.59, sitting just above the pivot (7.563) and below near-term resistance (R1 7.783 / R2 7.919). Trend is constructive: moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), suggesting an underlying uptrend. Momentum is not fully confirmed: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0246) but contracting, indicating downside momentum is fading. RSI(6) at ~56 is neutral (no overbought/oversold edge). Near-term levels: support S1 7.344 then S2 7.208; resistance 7.783 then 7.919. Pattern-based forecast is slightly negative (60% chance of -0.84% next day; -1.15% next week; -0.19% next month), implying limited immediate upside despite the bullish MA structure.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning leans bullish: open interest put/call is low at 0.22 (more calls than puts outstanding). However, today’s options volume is extremely low (total volume ~1; put volume 0), so sentiment from volume is not very informative. Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~65.74 vs historical vol ~48.43), which often signals the market expects larger moves, but with thin volume it may reflect illiquidity rather than strong conviction.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Recent news is a clear operational positive: AerSale expanded its Hialeah Gardens, Florida MRO facility to 90,000 sq ft, increasing capacity and efficiency—supportive for servicing demand and potential future revenue if utilization ramps.
Technical backdrop (bullish moving averages) also supports a constructive longer-term trend if fundamentals stabilize.
Institutional/insider activity read is neutral (no notable selling pressure flagged).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Latest reported quarter shows contraction: revenue down -13.9% YoY and net income negative (loss), with EPS down to 0—this weakens the long-term “buy now and hold” case for a beginner.
Near-term statistical outlook is slightly negative (higher probability of small declines over the next day/week).
Options are thinly traded (low volume), reducing confidence in sentiment signals and potentially increasing price noise.

Financial Performance

2025/Q3: Revenue was 71.191M, down -13.90% YoY. Net income fell to about -0.12M (down -123.58% YoY), and EPS dropped to 0 (-100% YoY). A bright spot is gross margin improving to 30.18% (+5.41% YoY), suggesting better unit economics/efficiency, but the top-line decline and lack of earnings growth mean the business trend is not yet strong enough to rate as an immediate long-term buy.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update (2026-01-09): Truist raised the price target to $8 from $6 but maintained a Hold rating. That’s a modestly improving view (higher target) while still signaling limited expected upside and/or insufficient conviction for a Buy. Wall Street pros: aerospace/aftermarket demand tailwinds and operational improvements could help. Cons: valuation/stock selection caution in the sector and ASLE’s recent revenue/earnings weakness keep analysts on the sidelines. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today. Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (last 90 days).

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ASLE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASLE is 8 USD with a low forecast of 8 USD and a high forecast of 8 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 7.380

Low

Averages

High

Current: 7.380

Low

Averages

High

Truist

Hold

upgrade

$6 -> $8

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$6 -> $8

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

upgrade

Hold

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on AerSale to $8 from $6 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Despite a strong 2025, the Aerospace & Defense sector remains broadly bullish for 2026, with rising aircraft production and sustained aftermarket demand supporting both OE and AM segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Defense may see fewer catalysts, but recapitalization, geopolitical tensions, and replenishment needs should sustain demand, making stock selection critical amid elevated valuations, particularly for SMID defense tech names, the firm adds.

Truist

Hold

maintain

$6 -> $7

2025-10-15

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$6 -> $7

2025-10-15

maintain

Hold

Reason

Truist raised the firm's price target on AerSale to $7 from $6 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares as part of a broader research note previewing Q3 results in Aerospace and Defense. Sentiment surrounding aircraft OEM production is increasing, and the firm is favoring MAX-exposed suppliers, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm also notes that aftermarket demand trends continues to be buoyed by passenger travel strength, engine shop visits, and new aircraft supply chain challenges, though it sees Defense as a bit more nuanced as the government shutdown looms over Q4 and FY26 outlooks.

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ASLE Should I Buy

ASLE Should I Buy

Should You Buy AerSale Corp (ASLE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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