AKBA Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AKBA performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AKBA sees a -1.55% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +3.44% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -5.16%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AKBA Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
37.43M
-10.98%
-14.25%
Gross Margin
63.58%
11.98%
5.37%
Operating Margin
-29.94%
3.46%
58.92%
Net Margin
-53.54%
55.37%
172.33%
EPS
-0.10
-25.00%
150.00%
No Data Available
AKBA Earnings Analysis
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. Corporation (AKBA.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Cash Reserves Expansion: 1. Strong Cash Position: Akebia ended Q3 2024 with $34 million in cash and cash equivalents, and after raising an additional $9.7 million post-Q3, the pro forma cash position stands at $43.7 million, ensuring at least two years of cash runway.
Market Access for Vafseo: 2. Market Readiness for Vafseo: Approximately 60% of dialysis patients have access to Vafseo through established commercial supply contracts with major dialysis organizations, positioning the company for a strong launch in January 2025.
Physician Prescription Intent: 3. High Physician Intent to Prescribe: A survey indicated that 92% of physicians intend to use Vafseo, with 27% planning to prescribe it within the first three months of its launch, reflecting strong demand in the market.
R&D Cost Reduction: 4. Cost Management in R&D: Research and development expenses decreased to $8.5 million in Q3 2024, down from $13.3 million in Q3 2023, demonstrating effective cost management as the company prepares for product launch.
Reimbursement Process Improvement: 5. Positive Reimbursement Developments: Akebia secured TDAPA reimbursement from CMS and received HCPCS codes, facilitating efficient reimbursement processes for Vafseo starting January 2025, which enhances its market attractiveness.
Negative
Revenue Decline Analysis: 1. Declining Revenue: Total revenue decreased to $37.4 million in Q3 2024 from $42 million in Q3 2023, primarily due to a reduction in AURYXIA net product revenue from $40.1 million to $35.6 million.
Widened Net Loss: 2. Increased Net Loss: The net loss widened to $20 million in Q3 2024 compared to a net loss of $14.5 million in Q3 2023, reflecting a $4.4 million increase in noncash interest expense related to a settlement.
Projected Revenue Decrease: 3. Anticipated Revenue Decline: AURYXIA net product revenue is expected to be around the same level as Q2 2024, which is lower than Q4 2023, due to anticipated supply chain disruptions ahead of 2025 TDAPA reimbursement.
Increasing SG&A Costs: 4. Rising SG&A Expenses: SG&A expenses rose to $26.5 million in Q3 2024, up from $22.7 million in Q3 2023, driven by costs associated with prelaunch activities for Vafseo.
Cash Liquidity Challenges: 5. Cash Position Concerns: Despite raising $9.7 million post-Q3, the company ended the quarter with only $34 million in cash and cash equivalents, indicating potential liquidity challenges ahead.
AKBA FAQs
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AKBA Earning Call Sentiment
Akebia Therapeutics, Inc. (AKBA) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
AKBA.O
3.23%Positive
Financial performance is weak, with declining revenue and increased net loss. Regulatory uncertainties and supply chain challenges further compound risks. While there is optimism for Vafseo's market potential, the lack of a share repurchase program and unclear management responses in the Q&A section add to the negative sentiment. The absence of a new partnership or strong guidance and the presence of financial risks suggest a negative stock price movement.
