AHCO Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AHCO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AHCO sees a +1.35% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.68% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.99%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AHCO Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
805.86M
0.23%
-0.01%
Gross Margin
13.99%
17.17%
-2.44%
Operating Margin
8.52%
27.93%
1.31%
Net Margin
2.97%
105.27%
16.47%
EPS
0.15
104.45%
15.38%
No Data Available
AHCO Earnings Analysis
AdaptHealth Corp. Common Stock Corporation (AHCO.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Sleep Products Revenue Increase: 1. Revenue Growth in Sleep Products: Sleep revenue reached $326.4 million, marking a 3.5% increase compared to the previous year, contributing to a compounded annual growth of 9.8% over the past two years.
Respiratory Revenue Surge: 2. Strong Performance in Respiratory Products: Respiratory revenue increased by 8.6% year-over-year, totaling $164 million, with the oxygen census surpassing 325,000 patients for the first time.
Adjusted EBITDA Margin Improvement: 3. Improved Adjusted EBITDA Margin: The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 20.4%, reflecting a positive revenue mix as higher-margin products outperformed lower-margin categories.
Strong Free Cash Flow: 4. Significant Free Cash Flow Generation: Free cash flow for the quarter was $84.8 million, significantly exceeding the target of $30 million, demonstrating strong operational cash generation.
Debt Reduction Progress: 5. Debt Reduction and Financial Strength: The company paid down an additional $50 million of debt, achieving a net leverage ratio of 2.87 times, ahead of schedule, with a new multi-year target set at 2.5 times net leverage.
Negative
Diabetes Revenue Decline: 1. Decline in Diabetes Revenue: Diabetes revenue decreased by 11.8% year-over-year, totaling $141.1 million, significantly impacting overall revenue growth.
Revenue and EBITDA Guidance Cut: 2. Guidance Reduction: The company adjusted its revenue midpoint down by $45 million and adjusted EBITDA midpoint down by $15 million, primarily due to underperformance in the diabetes segment.
Diabetes Segment Issues: 3. Operational Challenges: The diabetes segment faced operational issues leading to fewer recurring orders than expected, which contributed to the revenue decline and necessitated a restructuring of the diabetes leadership team.
Non-Core Asset Sale Impact: 4. Impact of Non-Core Asset Sale: The sale of certain custom rehab assets, which generated approximately $30 million in annual revenue, will negatively affect future revenue run-rate.
Market Share Decline: 5. Increased Competition: Despite the overall market for diabetes products growing, AdaptHealth's competitors are reportedly achieving upper single-digit growth, while AdaptHealth's diabetes segment is not growing, indicating a loss of market share.
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AHCO Earning Call Sentiment
AdaptHealth Corp. (AHCO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
AHCO.O
1.03%Positive
The earnings call summary highlights several concerns: operational challenges in the diabetes segment, downward revenue and EBITDA guidance, and a significant decline in diabetes revenue. While free cash flow and debt management show some positives, the Q&A reveals uncertainties and management's reluctance to provide clear guidance. The market cap indicates a potential strong reaction to these negative factors, suggesting a negative stock price movement over the next two weeks.