Loading...
01/11 13:56
Loading...
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call summary shows mixed signals: record high adjusted book value and equity per share, and strong share repurchase program, yet declining operating income and increased loss expenses. The Q&A reveals confidence in certain areas, but management's unclear responses on some issues raise concerns. Overall, the financial performance and shareholder returns are positive, but uncertainties in guidance and loss expenses balance the sentiment, leading to a neutral outlook.
Adjusted Operating Income $66 million, or $1.27 per share, down from $338 million, or $5.75 per share in Q4 2023 due to a prior year benefit of $208 million related to tax law changes in Bermuda and New York State.
Insurance Segment Contribution $98 million in Q4 2024 compared to $339 million in Q4 2023, primarily due to the prior year benefit related to Bermuda tax law changes of $189 million.
Net Earned Premiums and Credit Derivative Revenues $107 million in Q4 2024, up from $86 million in Q4 2023, attributed to an increase in accelerations due to refundings and an increase in scheduled net earned premiums.
Loss Expense Increased from $7 million in Q4 2023 to $31 million in Q4 2024, mainly due to lower expected recoveries on certain long-dated US public finance transactions and increased losses on certain insured healthcare transactions.
Full Year Adjusted Operating Income $389 million, or $7.10 per share, down from $648 million, or $10.78 per share in 2023, impacted by non-recurring benefits in 2023 including a $175 million after-tax gain associated with Sound Point and AHP transactions.
Dividends Paid $68 million in 2024, with a recent 10% increase in quarterly dividend per share from $0.31 to $0.34.
Share Repurchases Repurchased 6.2 million shares for $502 million at an average price of $81.28 per share, representing 11% of shares outstanding as of December 31, 2023.
Adjusted Book Value per Share $170.12 at year-end 2024, a record high.
Adjusted Operating Shareholders' Equity per Share $114.75 at year-end 2024, a record high.
Shareholder Returns Returned $5.4 billion to shareholders since the beginning of the share repurchase program in 2013, retiring over 150 million shares.
New Business Production: PVP across three financial guaranty businesses topped $400 million for the second consecutive year, with US public finance reaching $270 million, its highest in four years.
Geographic Expansion: Opened new offices in Australia and Singapore to expand reach in Australia, New Zealand, and Asia.
Strategic Moves: Merged Assured Guaranty Municipal into Assured Guaranty Inc. to create a more efficient capital structure and larger insurer.
Market Positioning: Achieved a 14-year high for annual new issue insured par sold, ensuring over $24 billion during 2024, capturing 58% of total insured par issued.
Industry Demand: Bond insurance demand remained strong with an industry penetration rate of 8.3% of par issued.
Operational Efficiency: Consolidation of insurance subsidiaries improved capital structure and diversified insured portfolio.
Investment Performance: Inception-to-date return on alternative investments was approximately 13% through year-end.
Legal Resolution: Successfully concluded litigation with Lehman Brothers International Europe, recognizing a pre-tax gain of approximately $103 million in Q1 2025.
Regulatory Issues: The ongoing mediation regarding the unresolved Puerto Rico exposure (PREPA) poses a risk, as the Title III Court has extended the time for resolution, which may affect financial outcomes.
Economic Factors: The company faces potential economic challenges as it navigates through global economic environments and geopolitical events, which could impact business operations and financial performance.
Supply Chain Challenges: The company is expanding its geographic reach, which may introduce supply chain complexities and challenges in new markets such as Australia, New Zealand, and Asia.
Competitive Pressures: Assured Guaranty operates in a competitive market, with pressures from other financial guarantors that could affect market share and pricing strategies.
Loss Expenses: There has been an increase in loss expenses, particularly related to lower expected recoveries on long-dated US public finance transactions and increased losses on certain insured healthcare transactions.
Adjusted Operating Income per Share: Assured Guaranty earned adjusted operating income per share of $7.10 for the full year 2024.
Share Repurchase Program: In 2024, Assured Guaranty repurchased 6.2 million shares for $502 million, representing 11% of the shares outstanding as of December 31, 2023.
Geographic Expansion: The company expanded its geographic reach by opening offices in Australia and Singapore, and pursued opportunities in Continental Europe.
Merging Subsidiaries: Assured Guaranty completed the consolidation of its two primary insurance subsidiaries into one, creating a more efficient capital structure.
Alternative Investments: The inception-to-date return on alternative investments was approximately 13% through year-end.
2025 Revenue Expectations: The US municipal bond market has started 2025 with strong new issue volume, with analysts projecting that 2025 volume may rival or exceed the record volume of 2024.
Litigation Gain: Assured Guaranty will recognize a pre-tax gain of approximately $103 million in the first quarter of 2025 from litigation with Lehman Brothers.
Dividend Increase: The Board of Directors approved a 10% increase in the quarterly dividend per share from $0.31 to $0.34.
Share Repurchase Authorization: As of now, the remaining share repurchase authorization is approximately $276 million.
Dividends Paid: In 2024, Assured Guaranty paid $68 million in dividends.
Dividend Increase: The Board of Directors approved a 10% increase to the quarterly dividend per share from $0.31 to $0.34.
Share Repurchase Program: In 2024, the company repurchased 6.2 million shares for $502 million at an average price of $81.28 per share, representing 11% of the shares outstanding as of December 31, 2023.
Total Share Repurchases Since 2013: Since the beginning of the share repurchase program in 2013, Assured Guaranty has returned $5.4 billion to shareholders and retired over 150 million shares.
Remaining Authorization for Share Repurchase: As of now, the remaining authorization for share repurchase is approximately $276 million.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, record high metrics, and a robust share repurchase program, suggesting positive sentiment. The Q&A section reveals confidence in managing risks and exploring new opportunities, with analysts generally satisfied despite some unclear responses. Adjustments for potential risks are minor compared to the positive financial indicators. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to experience a positive reaction in the 2% to 8% range.
The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal a strong financial performance with record high book value and shareholder equity per share. Despite a decrease in operating income per share, the company has robust share repurchase plans and dividend returns. The Q&A provides reassurance on potential risks, such as the Thames Water exposure and Puerto Rico restructuring. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a positive stock price movement prediction.
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with a 62% increase in adjusted operating income per share and a significant litigation gain. The company also demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividend increases. Despite some regulatory and investment risks, the positive outlook on revenue and strategic geographic expansion suggests optimism. The Q&A section did not reveal critical negative insights. Given the market cap of approximately $4.2 billion, the stock is likely to experience a positive movement of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary shows mixed signals: record high adjusted book value and equity per share, and strong share repurchase program, yet declining operating income and increased loss expenses. The Q&A reveals confidence in certain areas, but management's unclear responses on some issues raise concerns. Overall, the financial performance and shareholder returns are positive, but uncertainties in guidance and loss expenses balance the sentiment, leading to a neutral outlook.
All transcripts are sourced directly from the official live webcast or the company’s official investor relations website. We use the exact words spoken during the call with no paraphrasing of the core discussion.
Full verbatim transcripts are typically published within 4–12 hours after the call ends. Same-day availability is guaranteed for all S&P 500 and most mid-cap companies.
No material content is ever changed or summarized in the “Full Transcript” section. We only correct obvious spoken typos (e.g., “um”, “ah”, repeated 10 times”, or clear misspoken ticker symbols) and add speaker names/titles for readability. Every substantive sentence remains 100% as spoken.
When audio quality is poor or multiple speakers talk over each other, we mark the section instead of guessing. This ensures complete accuracy rather than introducing potential errors.
They are generated by a specialized financial-language model trained exclusively on 15+ years of earnings transcripts. The model extracts financial figures, guidance, and tone with 97%+ accuracy and is regularly validated against human analysts. The full raw transcript always remains available for verification.
