Stock Price & Analysis

Analysis and Insights

To determine whether to buy or sell ACHC stock, we analyze both fundamental and technical factors.

Fundamental Analysis:

• Analyst Sentiment: ACHC has a Moderate Buy consensus rating with a price target of $48.78, indicating a 70.1% upside from its current price. However, recent downgrades and lowered price targets from analysts like KeyBanc and RBC Capital suggest caution due to disappointing Q4 results and 2025 guidance.

• Financial Performance: ACHC's Q4 net income fell 44% year-over-year, and while revenues increased, the company faces headwinds from slower patient day growth and regulatory scrutiny.

• Valuation: The stock's forward P/E ratio is around 15.6, lower than its historical average, suggesting potential undervaluation. However, this must be weighed against operational challenges.

Technical Analysis:

• Price Trends: ACHC's stock price has been under pressure, recently declining 6% in pre-market trading. It is trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating potential overselling.

• Momentum Indicators: The RSI is around 30, suggesting oversold conditions, while the MACD remains negative, indicating a bearish trend.

Event Impact:

• Investigation Risks: ACHC is under investigation for alleged improper admissions and billing practices, which has led to stock price declines and could result in further regulatory actions.

Conclusion:

While ACHC offers a significant upside based on analyst targets, the stock faces substantial risks from operational challenges and legal issues. Investors should exercise caution and consider waiting for more stability before entering.

ACHC stock is predicted to reach $33.20 by the end of 2025, driven by improving fundamentals and analyst optimism. The stock faces resistance at $31.86 but could break out as growth prospects improve.

The S1 support level for ACHC Stock is $28 ,The R1 resistant level for ACHC Stock is $30.91.

As of the end of day on 2025-03-19, the price of ACHC Stock was $29.82.

The target price for ACHC Stock according to analyst rating is 47.90, with the highest price target at 78.00 and the lowest at 35.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on ACHC Stock overall.

The market cap of ACHC is $2.7B.

Analysis and Insights

ACHC may not be overvalued based on current metrics and analyst sentiment. Here's the analysis:

1. Valuation Metrics:

   • P/E Ratio: 8.47 (Q4 2024) is below industry averages, suggesting undervaluation.
   • EV/EBITDA: 11.35 indicates a reasonable valuation relative to earnings.
   • P/S Ratio: 1.16 reflects a low price relative to revenue.
   • P/B Ratio: 1.07 suggests the stock is near book value.

2. Financial Performance:

   • Revenue: Consistent at $768M-$815M quarterly, showing stability.
   • Net Income: Q4 2024 dropped to $32.615M, raising profitability concerns.
   • Gross Margin: Steady at ~10%, indicating stable operations.
   • ROE: 4.33% is low, signaling weak profitability.

3. Liquidity and Debt:

   • Current Ratio: 1.07, barely above 1, indicating tight short-term liquidity.
   • Debt/Equity: 64.05%, showing significant leverage.

4. Analyst Sentiment:

   • Mixed ratings, with price targets lowered by KeyBanc and RBC, but still maintaining a Moderate Buy consensus with a $48.78 target.

In conclusion, ACHC appears fairly valued, with low multiples and stable revenue, but profitability and debt concerns persist.

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services across the United States. Its facilities and services are classified into various categories: acute inpatient psychiatric facilities, specialty treatment facilities, comprehensive treatment centers (CTCs) and residential treatment centers. Outpatient programs associated with its facilities are included within each respective service line. Its acute inpatient psychiatric facilities provide a high level of care in order to stabilize patients that are either a threat to themselves or to others. Its specialty treatment facilities include residential recovery facilities and eating disorder facilities. It operates over 10 CTC locations in North Carolina and 160 locations in 32 states across the country. Its residential treatment centers treat patients with behavioral disorders in a non-hospital setting. It operates a network of over 253 behavioral healthcare facilities with 11,200 beds in 38 states and Puerto Rico.

Price Prediction for ACHC Stock by 2030

ACHC stock is predicted to reach $60 by 2030, driven by expected operational improvements and valuation normalization. The stock currently trades at $29.20, offering significant upside potential. Analysts expect EBITDA growth in 2026 to support long-term recovery.

ACHC has a total of 17000 employees.