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JPM Report: PV Sector Faces Severe Challenges; Daqo New Energy and GCL TECH Expected to Emerge as Top Contenders

6 Chinese Photovoltaic Leaders and CPIA Called for Discussions, Restricted from Reaching Agreements on Production, Pricing, and More

6.5

01-07aastocks

JPM Analyzes GOLDWIND Stock Price Surge Attributed to Landspace as Excessive

6.5

2025-12-29aastocks

CICC: 2026 Could Mark a Turning Point for the Photovoltaic Industry Chain

4.0

2025-12-12aastocks

JPM Maintains Positive Outlook on 'Anti-Involution' in PV Sector, Reiterates Overweight Rating for GCL TECH

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is -247.36M, with retail investors contributing -6.14M and major investors adding -245.89M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

JPMorgan

Overweight

maintain

$38

2026-01-09

Reason

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on the view that the proposal by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) is a setback to the industry's 'anti-involution' initiative but is seen as an adjustment rather than a reversal of the overall development in the sector. Despite the potential for negative share price reactions, JPMorgan believes that DAQO New Energy and GCL TECH are likely to emerge as winners in this situation due to their strong financial positions and low production costs. Consequently, the broker maintained an Overweight rating for these two stocks, with target prices set at US$38 for DAQO New Energy and $1.7 for GCL TECH.

JPMorgan

Overweight

Price Target

$38

2026-01-09

maintain

The analyst rating from JPMorgan is based on the view that the proposal by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association (CPIA) is a setback to the industry's 'anti-involution' initiative but is seen as an adjustment rather than a reversal of the overall development in the sector. Despite the potential for negative share price reactions, JPMorgan believes that DAQO New Energy and GCL TECH are likely to emerge as winners in this situation due to their strong financial positions and low production costs. Consequently, the broker maintained an Overweight rating for these two stocks, with target prices set at US$38 for DAQO New Energy and $1.7 for GCL TECH.

Citi

Citi Research

initiated

$1.72

2025-12-12

Reason

The analyst rating for GCL TECH is based on the expectation that successful consolidation of polysilicon production capacity will lead to rising polysilicon prices. This, in turn, is anticipated to benefit GCL TECH through margin expansion and potential earnings growth, even at a 50% capacity utilization rate. Consequently, Citi Research rated GCL TECH as a Buy/High Risk, with a target price of $1.72.

Citi

Price Target

$1.72

2025-12-12

initiated

The analyst rating for GCL TECH is based on the expectation that successful consolidation of polysilicon production capacity will lead to rising polysilicon prices. This, in turn, is anticipated to benefit GCL TECH through margin expansion and potential earnings growth, even at a 50% capacity utilization rate. Consequently, Citi Research rated GCL TECH as a Buy/High Risk, with a target price of $1.72.

Northeast Securities

initiated

$1.5

2025-10-30

Reason

The analyst rating of "Buy" for GCL TECH (03800.HK) by Northeast Securities is based on several key factors: 1. Turnaround in Profitability: The company reported a significant turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business, achieving an unaudited profit of approximately RMB960 million in 3Q25, which includes sale proceeds from an associated company. This marks a shift from previous losses to profitability. 2. Strong Adjusted EBITDA: The unaudited adjusted EBITDA for the photovoltaic materials business was about RMB1.41 billion in 3Q25, also indicating a recovery from losses and aligning with market expectations. 3. Positive Future Projections: The report anticipates that GCL TECH will continue to improve its financial performance, projecting net profits of -RMB992 million, +RMB1.085 billion, and RMB1.864 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. 4. Market Positioning: The company is expected to accelerate towards a results inflection point, suggesting that it is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities despite challenges in the industry. 5. Target Price: The target price set at $1.5 indicates a positive outlook for the stock's future performance. Overall, the combination of improved financial results, positive future projections, and strategic positioning in the market supports the "Buy" rating.

Northeast Securities

Price Target

$1.5

2025-10-30

initiated

The analyst rating of "Buy" for GCL TECH (03800.HK) by Northeast Securities is based on several key factors: 1. Turnaround in Profitability: The company reported a significant turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business, achieving an unaudited profit of approximately RMB960 million in 3Q25, which includes sale proceeds from an associated company. This marks a shift from previous losses to profitability. 2. Strong Adjusted EBITDA: The unaudited adjusted EBITDA for the photovoltaic materials business was about RMB1.41 billion in 3Q25, also indicating a recovery from losses and aligning with market expectations. 3. Positive Future Projections: The report anticipates that GCL TECH will continue to improve its financial performance, projecting net profits of -RMB992 million, +RMB1.085 billion, and RMB1.864 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively. 4. Market Positioning: The company is expected to accelerate towards a results inflection point, suggesting that it is well-positioned to capitalize on market opportunities despite challenges in the industry. 5. Target Price: The target price set at $1.5 indicates a positive outlook for the stock's future performance. Overall, the combination of improved financial results, positive future projections, and strategic positioning in the market supports the "Buy" rating.

BOCOMI

Buy

to

Buy

downgrade

2025-10-21

Reason

The analyst rating for GCL TECH (03800.HK) is maintained as a "Buy" due to the company's successful turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business segment, which reported a profit in 3Q25. This improvement is attributed to the rise in polysilicon prices, driven by the "anti-involution" policy that prevents sales below cost. Despite a slight reduction in the target price from HKD1.59 to HKD1.54, the positive outlook on the company's performance supports the continued "Buy" rating.

BOCOMI

Buy

to

Buy

Price Target

2025-10-21

downgrade

The analyst rating for GCL TECH (03800.HK) is maintained as a "Buy" due to the company's successful turnaround in its photovoltaic materials business segment, which reported a profit in 3Q25. This improvement is attributed to the rise in polysilicon prices, driven by the "anti-involution" policy that prevents sales below cost. Despite a slight reduction in the target price from HKD1.59 to HKD1.54, the positive outlook on the company's performance supports the continued "Buy" rating.

Huatai Securities

maintain

$2.22

2025-10-20

Reason

The analyst rating from Huatai Securities for GCL TECH (03800.HK) is maintained at "Buy" due to several positive developments in the company's photovoltaic materials business. The key reasons for this rating include: 1. A significant turnaround in financial performance, with EBITDA of approximately RMB1.41 billion and a net profit of about RMB960 million in 3Q25. 2. Gains of approximately RMB640 million from the transfer of an associate company. 3. Improvements in the operations of the silicon material business. 4. Reversal of inventory depreciation losses. 5. Optimism regarding the steady advancement of anti-involution measures in the photovoltaic sector, which are expected to support profit recovery across the industrial chain. 6. The company's significant energy consumption advantage in granular silicon and the potential for growth from businesses such as silane, which offers larger profit elasticity. Based on these factors, Huatai Securities has set a target price of $2.22, reflecting a 48x PE ratio for 2026.

Huatai Securities

Price Target

$2.22

2025-10-20

maintain

The analyst rating from Huatai Securities for GCL TECH (03800.HK) is maintained at "Buy" due to several positive developments in the company's photovoltaic materials business. The key reasons for this rating include: 1. A significant turnaround in financial performance, with EBITDA of approximately RMB1.41 billion and a net profit of about RMB960 million in 3Q25. 2. Gains of approximately RMB640 million from the transfer of an associate company. 3. Improvements in the operations of the silicon material business. 4. Reversal of inventory depreciation losses. 5. Optimism regarding the steady advancement of anti-involution measures in the photovoltaic sector, which are expected to support profit recovery across the industrial chain. 6. The company's significant energy consumption advantage in granular silicon and the potential for growth from businesses such as silane, which offers larger profit elasticity. Based on these factors, Huatai Securities has set a target price of $2.22, reflecting a 48x PE ratio for 2026.

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

N/A

5Y Average PE

-11.99

Current PE

-123.70

Overvalued PE

51.27

Undervalued PE

-75.26

Forward EV/EBITDA

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

9.94

Current EV/EBITDA

11.09

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

18.22

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

1.66

Forward PS

5Y Average PS

1.90

Current PS

1.96

Overvalued PS

2.57

Undervalued PS

1.22

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