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News

8.5

01-22aastocks

PinnedChina Vanke's Uncertain Bond Maturity Plans Raise Concerns Among Creditors: Report

6.5

01-22aastocks

S&P: Chinese Banking Sector's Capital is Sufficient; Anticipated Manageable Losses from Real Estate Loans

4.0

01-21aastocks

<Study> JPM Ratings and Target Prices for Chinese Developers/Managers (Table)

6.5

01-21aastocks

JPM Anticipates Ongoing Weakness in Chinese Property Developers' 2025 Results, Favors CHINA RES LAND & CHINA JINMAO

2.0

01-21aastocks

S&P Global Market Intelligence Reveals Recent Top 10 Most Shorted Stocks in Hong Kong (Table)

Money Flow

Over the past 66 trading days, overall net money flow is 93.00M, with retail investors contributing 637.00K and major investors adding 82.00M.

Net Buy $ Volume

Net Sell $ Volume

HSBC

HSBC Global Research

Buy

maintain

2025-12-01

Reason

The analyst rating for BOC HONG KONG was maintained at "Buy" by HSBC Global Research despite concerns about its exposure to CHINA VANKE. The reasoning behind this rating includes the belief that the likelihood of BOC HONG KONG downgrading its exposure to CHINA VANKE to Stage 3 before the end of 2025 is low, primarily due to the 30-day grace period on domestic bonds. Additionally, while there is an expectation of increased credit cost provisions in the future, the base scenario suggests that any significant classification of loans as Stage 3 would not occur until 2026. This indicates a level of confidence in BOC HONG KONG's current financial stability and management of risks associated with its lending practices. However, the target price was adjusted downwards from $45.2 to $43.2, reflecting the evolving situation and potential risks.

HSBC

Buy

Price Target

2025-12-01

maintain

The analyst rating for BOC HONG KONG was maintained at "Buy" by HSBC Global Research despite concerns about its exposure to CHINA VANKE. The reasoning behind this rating includes the belief that the likelihood of BOC HONG KONG downgrading its exposure to CHINA VANKE to Stage 3 before the end of 2025 is low, primarily due to the 30-day grace period on domestic bonds. Additionally, while there is an expectation of increased credit cost provisions in the future, the base scenario suggests that any significant classification of loans as Stage 3 would not occur until 2026. This indicates a level of confidence in BOC HONG KONG's current financial stability and management of risks associated with its lending practices. However, the target price was adjusted downwards from $45.2 to $43.2, reflecting the evolving situation and potential risks.

CLSA

Buy

downgrade

2025-11-28

Reason

The analyst rating for CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) is negatively impacted due to the company's request to extend the maturity of RMB2 billion medium-term notes, which is the first time it has sought an extension for public market bonds. This event is expected to negatively affect short-term sentiment in the real estate sector. Additionally, BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK) is perceived to have a relatively large exposure to Vanke's debt risk, which contributes to the cautious outlook. Despite this, BOC HONG KONG's EPS forecast for 2025 remains largely intact, although the 2026 EPS forecast was revised down by 2%, leading to a lowered target price but a maintained Buy rating.

CLSA

Buy

Price Target

2025-11-28

downgrade

The analyst rating for CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) is negatively impacted due to the company's request to extend the maturity of RMB2 billion medium-term notes, which is the first time it has sought an extension for public market bonds. This event is expected to negatively affect short-term sentiment in the real estate sector. Additionally, BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK) is perceived to have a relatively large exposure to Vanke's debt risk, which contributes to the cautious outlook. Despite this, BOC HONG KONG's EPS forecast for 2025 remains largely intact, although the 2026 EPS forecast was revised down by 2%, leading to a lowered target price but a maintained Buy rating.

Daiwa

downgrade

2025-11-28

Reason

The analyst rating for CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) was set to "Underperform" due to several key reasons outlined in the article. The company’s unexpected application to delay the repayment of RMB2 billion medium-term notes raised concerns in the market, as it may be perceived as a de facto default despite the possibility of negotiating an extension. This situation is likely to weaken Vanke's future sales and refinancing outlook, as it could erode confidence among stakeholders such as regulators, creditors, homebuyers, and suppliers. The broker, Daiwa, noted that this could lead the company into a vicious cycle of declining trust and financial instability. While there is a possibility of receiving assistance due to Vanke's benchmark status in the industry, the expectation of a market-oriented solution like debt restructuring further supports the negative outlook.

Daiwa

Price Target

2025-11-28

downgrade

The analyst rating for CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) was set to "Underperform" due to several key reasons outlined in the article. The company’s unexpected application to delay the repayment of RMB2 billion medium-term notes raised concerns in the market, as it may be perceived as a de facto default despite the possibility of negotiating an extension. This situation is likely to weaken Vanke's future sales and refinancing outlook, as it could erode confidence among stakeholders such as regulators, creditors, homebuyers, and suppliers. The broker, Daiwa, noted that this could lead the company into a vicious cycle of declining trust and financial instability. While there is a possibility of receiving assistance due to Vanke's benchmark status in the industry, the expectation of a market-oriented solution like debt restructuring further supports the negative outlook.

Morgan Stanley

Equalweight

downgrade

2025-10-16

Reason

The analyst rating from Morgan Stanley for CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) was lowered due to weak property sales and lower gross profit margins. The broker reduced its 2025 property sales forecast by 14%, indicating a significant decline in sales and a depletion of land reserves. Additionally, changes in booking led to lowered revenue forecasts for the following years, resulting in increased net loss forecasts. Consequently, the target price was cut from $4.65 to $4.28, while maintaining an Equalweight rating.

Morgan Stanley

Equalweight

Price Target

2025-10-16

downgrade

The analyst rating from Morgan Stanley for CHINA VANKE (02202.HK) was lowered due to weak property sales and lower gross profit margins. The broker reduced its 2025 property sales forecast by 14%, indicating a significant decline in sales and a depletion of land reserves. Additionally, changes in booking led to lowered revenue forecasts for the following years, resulting in increased net loss forecasts. Consequently, the target price was cut from $4.65 to $4.28, while maintaining an Equalweight rating.

Citi Research

Neutral

maintain

$5.47

2025-08-25

Reason

The analyst rating for CHINA VANKE was maintained at Neutral by Citi Research due to several factors. The company has received short-term relief from its parent company, the government, and banks, which is expected to support its operations. Additionally, there is no offshore public debt maturing before 2027, allowing the company some financial breathing room. CHINA VANKE is also taking steps to streamline its core business, optimize its capital structure, and enhance operational efficiency through technological upgrades. Despite a projected 38% drop in annual delivery volume and an expected net loss in 2025, these positive developments led the broker to keep the rating at Neutral, with a target price of $5.47.

Citi Research

Neutral

Price Target

$5.47

2025-08-25

maintain

The analyst rating for CHINA VANKE was maintained at Neutral by Citi Research due to several factors. The company has received short-term relief from its parent company, the government, and banks, which is expected to support its operations. Additionally, there is no offshore public debt maturing before 2027, allowing the company some financial breathing room. CHINA VANKE is also taking steps to streamline its core business, optimize its capital structure, and enhance operational efficiency through technological upgrades. Despite a projected 38% drop in annual delivery volume and an expected net loss in 2025, these positive developments led the broker to keep the rating at Neutral, with a target price of $5.47.

Valuation Metrics

Forward PE

N/A

5Y Average PE

2.36

Current PE

-2.31

Overvalued PE

8.65

Undervalued PE

-3.93

Forward EV/EBITDA

N/A

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

87.86

Current EV/EBITDA

0.00

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

788.65

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

-612.94

Forward PS

N/A

5Y Average PS

0.37

Current PS

0.00

Overvalued PS

0.50

Undervalued PS

0.25

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