XPeng's ADR Drops Over 10% After Fourth Quarter Revenue Guidance Falls Short
Stock Performance: XPeng's ADR fell by 10.3% following a forecast of 4Q25 revenue below market expectations, with a short selling ratio of 22.123%.
Revenue Growth: The company reported a 101.8% year-over-year increase in 3Q25 revenue, totaling RMB20.381 billion, and anticipates vehicle deliveries to rise by approximately 36.6-44.3% in 4Q25.
Future Projections: XPeng expects total revenue for 4Q25 to be between RMB21.5 billion and RMB23 billion, which is below the market consensus of RMB26 billion.
Analyst Outlook: JPMorgan has raised XPeng's target price to HKD195, predicting that AI deployment will enhance share price starting from 2Q26.
Trade with 70% Backtested Accuracy
Analyst Views on 09868
About the author
XPENG-W Introduces Start-Stop Payment Functionality on 'XPENG APP' in Hong Kong
New Payment Feature Launch: XPENG has introduced a start-stop payment feature on its “XPENG APP” in Hong Kong, allowing car owners to scan QR codes at over 1,600 EV charging stations and pay via Alipay HK, with additional payment methods to be added soon.
Global Cooperation with Antom: XPENG has formed a global partnership with Antom, making it the first Chinese automaker to establish a global payment collaboration, aimed at enhancing payment flexibility for charging services.
Expansion Plans: The new payment service will expand to other markets in Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, integrating with local payment tools.
Partnerships for Charging Infrastructure: XPENG has partnered with Cornerstone Technologies and EV Power, which manage a significant portion of public charging piles in Hong Kong, to support the new payment feature.
JPM Cuts LI AUTO-W Rating to Underweight; Recommends GEELY AUTO and SINOTRUK as Top Choices
Market Outlook: JP Morgan predicts the Chinese automobile market will experience a mixed performance in 2023, with potential negative growth similar to 2018, but also volatility driven by new model releases and seasonal trends akin to 2025.
Top Picks: The broker's top stock picks include GEELY AUTO and SINOTRUK, while they see potential in BYD COMPANY, LEAPMOTOR, XPENG-W, and NIO for future positioning.
Investment Ratings: JP Morgan has assigned various investment ratings and target prices for several automobile stocks, with BYD COMPANY and SINOTRUK rated as "Overweight," while LI AUTO-W has been downgraded to "Underweight."
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for the stocks mentioned, indicating varying levels of market sentiment and potential risks associated with each stock.
Citi Sets Target Price for LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) While Maintaining Neutral Rating
Company Expansion: LI AUTO-W is expanding into the robotics sector, focusing on 'embodied intelligence' and planning to develop humanoid robots and AI-driven hardware, according to a Citi Research report.
Valuation Methodology Update: Citi Research has updated its valuation methodology for LI AUTO-W, shifting from a pure PS ratio to a SOTP approach, resulting in increased target prices for its US stock and H-shares.
Market Performance Analysis: The report indicates that high-priced EV models show resilience to rising raw material costs, which may explain the recent outperformance of SERES compared to XPENG-W and BYD ELECTRONIC.
Broker Rating: Citi Research maintains a Neutral rating for LI AUTO-W amidst these developments.
Citi Reduces XPENG-W (09868.HK) Price Target to $107.8 and Lowers Earnings Projections Due to Valuation of Robotics Business Integration
XPENG-W Humanoid Robots: Citi Research anticipates that XPENG-W will deliver approximately 1,000 humanoid robots in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an average selling price projected at RMB1.23 million and a gross profit margin of 35%.
Target Price Adjustment: The brokerage revised its target prices for XPENG-W's H-shares and US stock down to $107.8 and $27.6, respectively, while maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting changes in earnings forecasts and valuation methods.
Revenue and Loss Forecasts: Citi Research has reduced its 2025 revenue forecast for XPENG-W by 5% and increased its net loss forecast by 12% to RMB1.501 billion, indicating challenges in profitability.
Vehicle Profit Margins: The report predicts a decline in vehicle gross profit margin to 11.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, although a slight profit of approximately RMB22 million is still expected for that quarter.
XPENG-W Allegedly Consolidates Two Intelligent Departments to Concentrate AI Efforts on Smart Driving and Other Business Areas
Department Merger: XPENG-W has merged its autonomous driving center and intelligent cockpit center into a new General Intelligence Center, led by Liu Xianming, who reports directly to CEO He Xiaopeng.
New Team Structure: The merger has resulted in a new team system focused on AI and software, aiming to enhance organizational capabilities and streamline operations across smart driving, smart cockpit, and robotics.
XPENG-W Reports Delivery of Approximately 20,000 New Vehicles in January
Stock Performance: XPENG-W (09868.HK) experienced a decline of 6.769%, with short selling amounting to $757.75 million and a ratio of 26.661%.
Vehicle Deliveries: The company delivered 20,011 new vehicles in January 2026 and launched the XPENG P7+ in 36 countries, including its European debut at the Brussels Motor Show.
Global Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, XPENG-W has expanded to 60 countries, with a sales network of 380 physical stores, marking a year-over-year growth of over 150%.
Sales and Service Network: The worldwide sales and service network has grown to over 1,000 outlets, enhancing the company's global presence.
XPENG-W Introduces Start-Stop Payment Functionality on 'XPENG APP' in Hong Kong
New Payment Feature Launch: XPENG has introduced a start-stop payment feature on its “XPENG APP” in Hong Kong, allowing car owners to scan QR codes at over 1,600 EV charging stations and pay via Alipay HK, with additional payment methods to be added soon.
Global Cooperation with Antom: XPENG has formed a global partnership with Antom, making it the first Chinese automaker to establish a global payment collaboration, aimed at enhancing payment flexibility for charging services.
Expansion Plans: The new payment service will expand to other markets in Southeast Asia, including Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, integrating with local payment tools.
Partnerships for Charging Infrastructure: XPENG has partnered with Cornerstone Technologies and EV Power, which manage a significant portion of public charging piles in Hong Kong, to support the new payment feature.
JPM Cuts LI AUTO-W Rating to Underweight; Recommends GEELY AUTO and SINOTRUK as Top Choices
Market Outlook: JP Morgan predicts the Chinese automobile market will experience a mixed performance in 2023, with potential negative growth similar to 2018, but also volatility driven by new model releases and seasonal trends akin to 2025.
Top Picks: The broker's top stock picks include GEELY AUTO and SINOTRUK, while they see potential in BYD COMPANY, LEAPMOTOR, XPENG-W, and NIO for future positioning.
Investment Ratings: JP Morgan has assigned various investment ratings and target prices for several automobile stocks, with BYD COMPANY and SINOTRUK rated as "Overweight," while LI AUTO-W has been downgraded to "Underweight."
Short Selling Data: The report includes short selling data for the stocks mentioned, indicating varying levels of market sentiment and potential risks associated with each stock.
Citi Sets Target Price for LI AUTO-W (02015.HK) While Maintaining Neutral Rating
Company Expansion: LI AUTO-W is expanding into the robotics sector, focusing on 'embodied intelligence' and planning to develop humanoid robots and AI-driven hardware, according to a Citi Research report.
Valuation Methodology Update: Citi Research has updated its valuation methodology for LI AUTO-W, shifting from a pure PS ratio to a SOTP approach, resulting in increased target prices for its US stock and H-shares.
Market Performance Analysis: The report indicates that high-priced EV models show resilience to rising raw material costs, which may explain the recent outperformance of SERES compared to XPENG-W and BYD ELECTRONIC.
Broker Rating: Citi Research maintains a Neutral rating for LI AUTO-W amidst these developments.
Citi Reduces XPENG-W (09868.HK) Price Target to $107.8 and Lowers Earnings Projections Due to Valuation of Robotics Business Integration
XPENG-W Humanoid Robots: Citi Research anticipates that XPENG-W will deliver approximately 1,000 humanoid robots in the fourth quarter of 2026, with an average selling price projected at RMB1.23 million and a gross profit margin of 35%.
Target Price Adjustment: The brokerage revised its target prices for XPENG-W's H-shares and US stock down to $107.8 and $27.6, respectively, while maintaining a "Buy" rating, reflecting changes in earnings forecasts and valuation methods.
Revenue and Loss Forecasts: Citi Research has reduced its 2025 revenue forecast for XPENG-W by 5% and increased its net loss forecast by 12% to RMB1.501 billion, indicating challenges in profitability.
Vehicle Profit Margins: The report predicts a decline in vehicle gross profit margin to 11.7% in the fourth quarter of 2025, although a slight profit of approximately RMB22 million is still expected for that quarter.
XPENG-W Allegedly Consolidates Two Intelligent Departments to Concentrate AI Efforts on Smart Driving and Other Business Areas
Department Merger: XPENG-W has merged its autonomous driving center and intelligent cockpit center into a new General Intelligence Center, led by Liu Xianming, who reports directly to CEO He Xiaopeng.
New Team Structure: The merger has resulted in a new team system focused on AI and software, aiming to enhance organizational capabilities and streamline operations across smart driving, smart cockpit, and robotics.
XPENG-W Reports Delivery of Approximately 20,000 New Vehicles in January
Stock Performance: XPENG-W (09868.HK) experienced a decline of 6.769%, with short selling amounting to $757.75 million and a ratio of 26.661%.
Vehicle Deliveries: The company delivered 20,011 new vehicles in January 2026 and launched the XPENG P7+ in 36 countries, including its European debut at the Brussels Motor Show.
Global Expansion: As of December 31, 2025, XPENG-W has expanded to 60 countries, with a sales network of 380 physical stores, marking a year-over-year growth of over 150%.
Sales and Service Network: The worldwide sales and service network has grown to over 1,000 outlets, enhancing the company's global presence.
