White House Abandons Minimum Price Guarantee for U.S. Critical Minerals Projects
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 21h ago
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The White House is stepping back from plans to guarantee a minimum price for U.S. critical minerals projects, a quiet acknowledgement of a lack of congressional funding on the matter and the difficulties associated with setting market prices, Reuters' Ernest Scheyder and Jarrett Renshaw reports, citing multiple sources. The change comes as a U.S. Senate panel is examining a price floor extended last year to MP Materials (MP), the authors note. Other publicly traded companies in the space include USA Rare Earth (USAR), Critical Metals (CRML), and United States Antimony (UAMY).
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Analyst Views on MP
Wall Street analysts forecast MP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MP is 76.13 USD with a low forecast of 55.27 USD and a high forecast of 94.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 67.010
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
Current: 67.010
Low
55.27
Averages
76.13
High
94.00
About MP
MP Materials Corp. produces specialty materials that are vital inputs for electrification and other advanced technologies. The Company owns and operates the Mountain Pass Rare Earth Mine and Processing Facility (Mountain Pass) located in California. It is also developing a rare earth metal, alloy and magnet manufacturing facility in Fort Worth, Texas (Independence Facility). The Company’s segments include Materials and Magnetics. The Materials segment operates Mountain Pass, which produces refined rare earth products as well as rare earth concentrate and related products. The Materials segment primarily generates revenue from sales of rare earth concentrate, primarily sold for further distribution to a single, principal customer in China, and sales of neodymium-praseodymium (NdPr) oxide and metal, primarily sold to customers in Japan, South Korea, and broader Asia. The Magnetics segment operates the Independence Facility, where it produces magnetic precursor products.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
MP Materials Stock Drops Amid Price Guarantee Concerns
- Government Investment Background: Six months ago, the U.S. Department of Defense invested $400 million in MP Materials and signed a 10-year supply agreement, guaranteeing a minimum price of $110 per kilogram for rare earth metals, securing a fundamental revenue stream for the company.
- Rising Price Concerns: Recent reports indicate that the Trump administration may not extend minimum price guarantees to new investment projects, raising market fears about the potential loss of MP Materials' price guarantee, which has led to a 9.4% drop in stock price by 1:15 p.m. ET.
- Contract Guarantee Analysis: Despite increasing market concerns about the price guarantee, sources confirm that MP Materials' price guarantee is already embedded in the contract, suggesting that fears regarding its future earnings may be overstated.
- Profitability Challenges: Although the company has government backing, MP Materials reported losses in both 2024 and 2025, with an expected earnings per share of only $0.31 in 2026, resulting in a nearly 200 P/E ratio at a share price above $60, indicating high valuation risks.
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Trump Administration Abandons Mining Price Guarantees
- Policy Shift Impact: The Trump administration's decision to abandon minimum price guarantees for U.S. critical mining projects has pressured MP Materials' stock, reflecting concerns over the financial viability of future projects and potentially impacting the company's profitability and market confidence.
- Reducing Dependency: This policy shift aims to decrease America's reliance on Chinese rare-earth production; while earlier commitments to support MP Materials remain, the new stance may pose greater challenges for other projects, affecting the overall development of the domestic rare-earth industry.
- Technical Analysis: MP Materials is currently trading below its 20-day and 100-day simple moving averages, indicating short-term weakness, yet remains above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs, suggesting a more favorable long-term trend, prompting investors to monitor changes at key support and resistance levels.
- Price Performance Review: Despite a current decline of 8.82%, MP Materials has shown a remarkable 193.04% increase over the past 12 months, indicating a strong upward trend, and investors should consider how market sentiment may influence future stock price fluctuations.
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