West Fraser Expects $409 Million Goodwill Impairment in Q4 2025
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 09 2026
0mins
Source: NASDAQ.COM
- Goodwill Impairment Expectation: West Fraser anticipates a non-cash goodwill impairment of approximately $409 million in Q4 2025, reflecting a recalibration of management assumptions due to the prolonged market downturn, indicating significant challenges faced by the company in its U.S. lumber operations.
- Shipment Outlook: The company expects SPF and SYP shipments to range between 2.4 to 2.7 billion board feet in 2026, which will help gradually restore revenue as the market recovers, despite the current uncertain market conditions.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: West Fraser plans to invest between $300 to $350 million in capital expenditures in 2026, aimed at enhancing production capacity and optimizing operational efficiency, positioning the company for future market recovery.
- Market Environment Impact: The anticipated goodwill impairment and shipment outlook reflect the ongoing slump in the lumber industry, necessitating effective capital allocation and market strategies from West Fraser to navigate challenges and maintain its competitive position in the sector.
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Analyst Views on WFG
Wall Street analysts forecast WFG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for WFG is 80.70 USD with a low forecast of 69.11 USD and a high forecast of 88.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 69.640
Low
69.11
Averages
80.70
High
88.00
Current: 69.640
Low
69.11
Averages
80.70
High
88.00
About WFG
West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. is a Canada-based diversified wood products company. The Company is engaged in manufacturing, selling, marketing and distributing lumber, engineered wood products such as oriented strand board (OSB), laminated veneer lumber (LVL), medium-density fiberboard (MDF), plywood, particleboard, pulp, newsprint, wood chips and other residuals. Its products are used in home construction, repair and remodeling, industrial applications, paper and tissue. Its segments include Lumber, North America engineered wood products (NA EWP), Pulp & Paper and Europe EWP. The Company’s business comprises lumber mills, OSB facilities, plywood facilities, MDF facilities, particleboard facilities, LVL facilities, veneer facilities, and pulp and paper mills. The Company operates approximately 58 facilities in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom and Europe.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
West Fraser Timber Co. to Host Analyst Call on February 12, 2026
- Earnings Release Schedule: West Fraser will release its fourth quarter 2025 financial and operating results on February 11, 2026, followed by an analyst conference call on February 12 at 7:00 a.m. Pacific Time, ensuring timely access to critical financial information for investors.
- Participation Details: Investors can join the call by dialing 1-888-510-2154 (toll-free North America) or (437) 900-0527 (toll number), or by connecting via webcast, enhancing the accessibility of information for stakeholders.
- Management Discussion: The call will be chaired by CEO Sean McLaren, who will discuss quarterly results and invite analyst questions, fostering interaction and transparency with the investment community.
- Company Overview: West Fraser is a diversified wood products company with over 50 facilities across Canada, the U.S., the U.K., and Europe, committed to sustainable forest practices, with products used in home construction and industrial applications, highlighting its leadership in the timber industry.
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West Fraser Timber Upgraded to Outperform by Raymond James with $75 Price Target
- Rating Upgrade: Raymond James upgraded West Fraser Timber from Market Perform to Outperform, raising the price target from $70 to $75, reflecting expectations for a strong recovery in Canadian lumber producers by 2026.
- Market Outlook: The analyst noted that 2025 marks the trough of a four-year downturn in forest products, with current valuations at historic lows and supply tightening due to mill curtailments and restricted harvesting, shifting the risk-reward balance to the upside.
- Policy Impact: Potential changes in U.S. housing policy could improve affordability and boost lumber demand, while depressed share prices may encourage consolidation in the industry as cash-rich buyers seek acquisition opportunities.
- Industry Dynamics: In addition to West Fraser, Canfor and Interfor were also upgraded, with the analyst viewing these companies as having higher relative torque to lumber pricing, and Interfor expected to deliver a Q4 2025 earnings beat.
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