Vital Farms Adjusts FY25 Revenue Forecast Due to ERP Issues
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Dec 16 2025
0mins
Source: SeekingAlpha
Revenue Outlook Adjustment: Vital Farms has lowered its 2025 revenue forecast to between $755M and $765M due to disruptions from a new ordering system, down from a previous estimate of at least $775M.
Long-term Financial Goals: The company aims for annual net revenue of $2B by 2030, with a gross margin of over 35% and an adjusted EBITDA margin between 15% and 17% during the 2025-2030 period.
Operational Transition: Vital Farms has completed the "hypercare" phase of its new enterprise resource planning system and has returned to normal operations, utilizing the new IT capabilities.
Market Reaction: Shares of Vital Farms are expected to open lower following the revised revenue guidance for FY25, marking the first decline in six days.
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Analyst Views on VITL
Wall Street analysts forecast VITL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VITL is 48.90 USD with a low forecast of 44.00 USD and a high forecast of 60.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
12 Analyst Rating
12 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 27.210
Low
44.00
Averages
48.90
High
60.00
Current: 27.210
Low
44.00
Averages
48.90
High
60.00
About VITL
Vital Farms, Inc. offers a range of ethically produced foods nationwide. The Company is a national consumer brand that works with more than 575 family farms and is the United States brand of pasture-raised eggs. The Company focuses on the humane treatment of farm animals and sustainable farming practices. The Company packages, markets and distributes shell eggs, butter, and other products. Its products, including shell eggs, butter, hard-boiled eggs, and liquid whole eggs, are sold in approximately 23,500 stores nationwide. The retail varieties of its shell eggs are based on supplemental feed type, egg size, and pack size. Its egg packaging consists primarily of corrugated boxes and egg cartons. The Company offers unsalted and sea-salted varieties of its butter, which are sold in two-stick and four-stick packs. The Company’s products are principally sold under the name Vital Farms in addition to other trade names, primarily to retail and foodservice channels in the United States.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
TD Cowen Maintains 'Buy' Rating and $44 Target on Vital Farms (VITL)
- Stock Volatility: Shares of Vital Farms (VITL) fell 6% during regular trading due to negative social media commentary but rebounded in after-hours trading, indicating a market reaction to the analyst's perspective.
- Analyst Perspective: TD Cowen analysts dismissed the criticisms regarding the company's nutritional value as 'highly unwarranted and misleading,' noting that most nutritionists view linoleic acid as a positive component, emphasizing its importance in daily diets.
- Revenue Goals: Vital Farms has set a target of achieving $2 billion in net revenue by 2030, with expectations of $755 million to $765 million in net revenue for 2025 and over $115 million in adjusted core profit, reflecting strong confidence in future growth.
- Market Sentiment Shift: On Stocktwits, retail sentiment around VITL stock shifted from 'neutral' to 'bearish' over the past 24 hours, while message volume increased from 'normal' to 'high,' indicating growing investor concern and attention towards the company's outlook.
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