Upcoming Week Worldwide: September Arrives, Wall Street's Most Disliked Month

Market Overview for September

• Historical Context: September is traditionally viewed as a challenging month for stocks, often recording the worst performance of the year for major indices like the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite.
• Recent Performance: The S&P 500 reached a record high of over 6,500 at the end of August, while the Dow also achieved new peaks. The Stoxx Europe 600 experienced its first two-month winning streak since February.

Sector Performance

• Banking Sector Gains: Europe's banking sector has seen significant growth, with shares reaching their highest levels since the 2008 financial crisis. Commerzbank has been a standout performer, with its shares up over 100% year-to-date.
• Media Sector Decline: In contrast, media stocks have faced challenges, declining over 8% in the past two months. WPP, an advertising group, reported a 71% drop in pre-tax profits for the first half of the year, leading to a reduced full-year outlook.

Economic Outlook

• Positive Market Sentiment: Some analysts, like Mark Haefele from UBS Global Wealth Management, remain optimistic, expecting the equity bull market to continue, supported by solid corporate earnings and lower interest rates.
• Cautious Perspectives: Gregory Daco from EY-Parthenon expresses caution, noting that while the U.S. economy grew at a robust annualized rate of 3.0% in Q2 2025, this growth may be misleading due to a decline in imports linked to earlier tariff responses.

Future Economic Predictions

• Barclays Report Insights: A recent report from Barclays anticipates a slowdown in the second half of the year but predicts a rebound in U.S. and European economic growth by 2026, suggesting that markets will move past current tariff and tax concerns.

Key Upcoming Events

• Market Watch: Investors should pay attention to several key dates as they return from summer breaks, including:
  • Labour Day (U.S. markets closed) and EU unemployment data on Monday.
  • EU inflation and U.S. manufacturing data on Tuesday.
  • EU GDP and U.S. non-farm payrolls on Friday.
  • French no-confidence vote on September 8.
  • ECB policy decision on September 11.
  • Federal Reserve policy decision on September 16-17.
  • President Trump's state visit to the U.K. on September 17.
  • Bank of England policy decision on September 18.