UBS Projects China's Economic Growth for 2026 to Reach a Minimum of 4.5%, Anticipates USD/RMB to Exceed 6.8 by Year-End

China's Economic Growth Forecast: UBS Global Wealth Management predicts China's economic growth will reach 4.5-5% this year due to targeted fiscal expansion and moderately loose monetary policy, though significant stimulus measures are unlikely.

Investment Opportunities: The report highlights potential growth in Chinese tech driven by AI and chip autonomy, as well as opportunities in healthcare, materials, power equipment, and high-dividend financial stocks.

RMB Exchange Rate Outlook: The People's Bank of China is expected to guide the RMB towards steady appreciation, with projections suggesting the USD/RMB could reach 6.8 by year-end.

Impact of US Policy on AI Investment: Easing US restrictions on Nvidia's chip exports to China may lead to upward revisions in market forecasts for China's AI capital expenditure, fostering a favorable environment for tech innovation.