Trump Homes Proposal Boosts Homebuilder Stocks

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

Source: CNBC

Updated: 5d ago

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TMHC-0.02%

LEN-1.17%

Should l Buy TMHC?

Source: CNBC

Stock Price Surge: Shares of Lennar and Taylor Morrison Home rose 4% on Tuesday following a Bloomberg report that both companies are involved in the proposed 'Trump Homes' initiative, indicating positive market sentiment towards the plan.
Affordability Focus: Amid high interest rates and rising home prices, housing affordability has become a key issue for the Trump administration, with Trump expressing a desire to assist first-time buyers without causing a significant drop in existing home prices.
Program Details: The proposal could encompass up to one million entry-level homes, where investors would rent the properties, allowing a portion of the rent to count towards a future down payment, thereby enhancing market appeal for potential homeowners.
Market Outlook: After a challenging previous year, Lennar's stock has started strong in 2026, rising 9%, reflecting optimistic market expectations regarding housing demand and the potential impact of new policies.

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Analyst Views on TMHC

Wall Street analysts forecast TMHC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TMHC is 77.80 USD with a low forecast of 62.00 USD and a high forecast of 95.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Analyst Rating

5 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 65.190

Low

62.00

Averages

77.80

High

95.00

Current: 65.190

Low

62.00

Averages

77.80

High

95.00

RBC Capital

Outperform

NULL

downgrade

$68 -> $62

2026-01-09

Reason

RBC Capital

Price Target

$68 -> $62

AI Analysis

2026-01-09

downgrade

Outperform

NULL

Reason

RBC Capital lowered the firm's price target on Taylor Morrison to $62 from $68 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Goldman remains cautious into early 2026, with housing affordability still challenging and R&R potentially inflecting later in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nonresidential markets are mixed, key risks include policy changes, rates, and tariffs, and the sector is expected to remain volatile, with homebuilders the most cautious, distribution favored, and building products OEMs offering relatively attractive valuations.

RBC Capital

Mike Dahl

Outperform

downgrade

$68 -> $62

2026-01-09

Reason

RBC Capital

Mike Dahl

Price Target

$68 -> $62

2026-01-09

downgrade

Outperform

Reason

RBC Capital analyst Mike Dahl lowered the firm's price target on Taylor Morrison to $62 from $68 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. RBC Capital remains cautious into early 2026, with housing affordability still challenging and R&R potentially inflecting later in the year, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Nonresidential markets are mixed, key risks include policy changes, rates, and tariffs, and the sector is expected to remain volatile, with homebuilders the most cautious, distribution favored, and building products OEMs offering relatively attractive valuations.

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About TMHC

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation is a homebuilder and developer. The Company's principal business is residential homebuilding and the development of lifestyle communities with operations across 12 states. The Company provides an assortment of homes across a range of price points to appeal to an array of consumer groups. It designs, builds and sells single and multi-family detached and attached homes in traditionally high growth markets for entry level, move-up, and resort lifestyle buyers. It operates under various brand names, including Taylor Morrison, Darling Homes Collection by Taylor Morrison, and Esplanade. It also has a Build-to-Rent homebuilding business which operates under the Yardly brand name. It owns and operates commercial space, retail, and multi-family properties under the Urban Form brand name. The Company, through its subsidiaries, provides financial services and title services. The Company, through its insurance agency, provides homeowner’s insurance policies.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.

Lennar and Taylor Morrison Plan One Million 'Trump Homes' Development

4 days agoBenzinga

Housing Development Initiative: Lennar and Taylor Morrison are reportedly working on a plan to develop one million 'Trump Homes' in response to President Trump's affordable housing initiative, which is expected to significantly increase housing supply in the market.
Innovative Financing Model: The proposal involves financing from private investors, with initial plans to rent these 'entry-level' homes to tenants, allowing rent payments to convert into down payments after three years, thereby lowering the barriers to homeownership.
Market Scale Expectations: The initiative aims to deliver $250 billion worth of housing, and while initial losses will be borne by private investors, the project's scale could expand if more builders join, potentially driving industry growth.
Policy Context: The proposal was pitched to the Trump administration in 2025, and although finer details are still being refined, this move indicates the government's focus on the housing market, which could influence future housing policies and market dynamics.

Tech Selloff Drags Down Market

5 days agoCNBC

Market Downward Pressure: On Tuesday, a selloff in technology stocks led to a decline of over 1% in the S&P 500 and approximately 2% in the Nasdaq, reflecting market uncertainty regarding the future performance of AI software companies, which in turn affected financial stocks.
Earnings Expectations Impact: Eli Lilly's shares fell nearly 4% on Tuesday, primarily due to disappointing 2026 guidance from its competitor Novo Nordisk, causing market concerns about Lilly's upcoming earnings report and signaling potential disappointment.
Housing Market Recovery Hopes: Housing-related stocks rallied on a report suggesting a plan to make entry-level homes more affordable, although a White House official indicated that the Trump administration is not actively considering the plan, it still highlights the potential for a housing market revival.
Investor Focus on Earnings: After Tuesday's close, several companies including AMD, Chipotle, and Uber are set to release earnings reports, with the market closely monitoring these announcements to gauge signs of economic recovery and industry outlook.

Novo Nordisk Warns of Sales Decline Amid Price Cuts

5 days agoCNBC

Sales Warning: Novo Nordisk has warned that fiscal 2026 sales will be impacted by lower drug prices in the U.S., with expectations of a decline between 5% and 13%, despite an anticipated increase in users of its popular GLP-1 drug, which may shake investor confidence.
Quarterly Sales Decline: The company expects fourth-quarter sales to drop by 2%, contrasting sharply with previous forecasts, potentially leading to further stock price volatility and affecting overall market performance.
Increased Competitive Pressure: With the price cuts, Novo Nordisk faces heightened competitive pressure, particularly in the U.S. market, which could impact its future market share and profitability.
Uncertain Financial Outlook: Although a 10% sales increase is projected for fiscal 2025, the uncertainty surrounding the overall financial outlook may lead to diminished investor confidence in the company's future, affecting its stock performance.