Tesla (TSLA) Misses 2025 Delivery Estimates, Heightened Stock Volatility
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 1h ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Delivery Miss: Tesla's Q4 2025 delivery figures were 418,227 vehicles, falling short of Wall Street's expectation of 422,850, while the full-year total of 1,636,129 also missed the target of 1,640,752, indicating a weakening competitive position in the EV market.
- Shrinking Market Share: The ongoing decline in Tesla's market share has contributed to lower delivery numbers, raising investor concerns about the company's financial outlook, particularly as EV sales are its primary revenue source.
- Increased Stock Volatility: As of January 12, 2026, Tesla's stock is flat, having experienced fleeting rallies, and volatility is expected to continue leading up to the earnings report, reflecting high uncertainty regarding the company's future performance.
- Unfulfilled AI Vision: Musk's promise of a robotaxi service covering half of the U.S. population by the end of 2025 has not materialized, leading to investor disappointment regarding Tesla's returns on its investments in autonomous driving technology, which has weakened market confidence in its future prospects.
Analyst Views on TSLA
Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 384.14 USD with a low forecast of 19.05 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
34 Analyst Rating
14 Buy
10 Hold
10 Sell
Hold
Current: 438.570
Low
19.05
Averages
384.14
High
600.00
Current: 438.570
Low
19.05
Averages
384.14
High
600.00
About TSLA
Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
