Tesla Reports 7% YoY Delivery Growth in Q3, Q4 Outlook Worrisome

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

TSLA-1.04%

Source: Fool

Updated: 2h ago

0mins

Source: Fool

Delivery Data Analysis: Tesla's Q3 deliveries reached 497,088 vehicles, a 7% year-over-year increase, while production was only 447,450 vehicles, indicating inventory drawdown pressure that may lead to disappointing Q4 deliveries.
Market Demand Shift: The impending deadline for federal electric vehicle tax credits prompted consumers to make early purchases in Q3, creating uncertainty for future demand that could impact Q4 sales performance.
Long-Term Outlook: Tesla's CFO indicated that as full self-driving technology scales, demand for vehicles is expected to increase significantly, despite facing short-term challenges.
Investor Focus: Although Q4 deliveries may be underwhelming, Tesla's high price-to-earnings ratio of 310 suggests that investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential, looking forward to more updates on full self-driving advancements in 2026.

TSLA

$449.72+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on TSLA

Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 384.14 USD with a low forecast of 19.05 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

34 Analyst Rating

14 Buy

10 Hold

10 Sell

Hold

Current: 454.430

Low

19.05

Averages

384.14

High

600.00

Current: 454.430

Low

19.05

Averages

384.14

High

600.00

Baird

Outperform

maintain

$548

2025-12-30

New

Reason

Baird

Price Target

$548

2025-12-30

New

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Baird says Tesla shares are up 7% in the last month as attention turns to the company's potential catalysts in 2026. These include a broader robotaxi rollout, new product launches, and incremental details on Optimus commercialization, as well as non-Tesla items such as a SpaceX initial public offering, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Baird recommends owning the stock into the new year and continues to view the company as a core holding. It keeps an Outperform rating on Tesla with a $548 price target.

Canaccord

Buy

maintain

$482 -> $551

2025-12-23

Reason

Canaccord

Price Target

$482 -> $551

2025-12-23

maintain

Buy

Reason

Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $551 from $482 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm reduced its Q4 delivery outlook for Tesla to 427,000 from 470,000, citing a sharper than anticipated deterioration in demand, with weakness broad-based across products and regions. However, even with the Q4 estimate cut, Canaccord sees "constructive developments beneath the surface" for Tesla. The recent share rally shows the market is looking through Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the end of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies, while a near-term drag on demand, is "forcing a healthier, more durable market to emerge." Tesla "still stands alone in the U.S. with a truly scaled, integrated EV franchise," according to Canaccord. Meanwhile, the analyst believes electric vehicle adoption is "rising quickly" in emerging markets such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. Tesla's robotaxi rollout is progressing, the firm adds. Canaccord says the company's underlying positives outweigh the near-term earnings reset.

Deutsche Bank

Buy

maintain

$470 -> $500

2025-12-19

Reason

Deutsche Bank

Price Target

$470 -> $500

2025-12-19

maintain

Buy

Reason

Deutsche Bank raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $500 from $470 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm increased the price target into the Q4 deliveries report.

Truist

William Stein

Hold

maintain

$406 -> $444

2025-12-19

Reason

Truist

William Stein

Price Target

$406 -> $444

2025-12-19

maintain

Hold

Reason

Truist analyst William Stein raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $444 from $406 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm adjusted price targets in the semiconductor and artificial intelligence group after establishing 2027 estimates. Truist recognizes the challenges of finding the power to run AI infrastructure and getting the funding to pay for it. However, the firm believes AI infrastructure semiconductor stocks "remain cheap" relative to their growth. It sees "more upside pressure" to estimates for the group relative to the diversified analog semis heading into 2026. AI capital expenditure upside will continue in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

About TSLA

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.