Tesla Reports 418,227 EV Deliveries in Q4 2025, Missing Expectations

Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst

TSLA-0.36%

Source: Fool

Updated: 1d ago

0mins

Source: Fool

Delivery Decline: Tesla reported 418,227 EV deliveries in Q4 2025, marking a nearly 16% year-over-year decline and falling short of Wall Street's expectation of 426,000, indicating challenges in the EV market under the Trump administration's policies.
Annual Delivery Drop: For the full year 2025, Tesla delivered 1.64 million vehicles, a decrease of approximately 9% from 2024, reflecting broader industry trends and intensified competition, particularly from rivals like BYD.
Robotaxi Prospects: Despite the drop in EV deliveries, investor focus has shifted to Tesla's emerging robotaxi fleet and Optimus humanoid robots, with expectations that robotaxis will operate in 30 cities by the end of 2026, potentially driving significant stock value increases.
Market Valuation Risks: Tesla's current market cap stands at $1.5 trillion, with analysts suggesting that future stock appreciation will heavily rely on the robotaxi business; however, with a forward P/E ratio exceeding 200, the risk-reward trade-off appears unattractive for investors.

TSLA

$431.41+Infinity%1D

Analyst Views on TSLA

Wall Street analysts forecast TSLA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for TSLA is 384.14 USD with a low forecast of 19.05 USD and a high forecast of 600.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

34 Analyst Rating

14 Buy

10 Hold

10 Sell

Hold

Current: 432.960

Low

19.05

Averages

384.14

High

600.00

Current: 432.960

Low

19.05

Averages

384.14

High

600.00

Truist

William Stein

Hold

downgrade

$444 -> $439

2026-01-02

Reason

Truist

William Stein

Price Target

$444 -> $439

2026-01-02

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Truist analyst William Stein lowered the firm's price target on Tesla to $439 from $444 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares after the company announced it delivered 418k units in Q4 2025, below consensus and the firm's estimate. Truist interprets the stock's bounce as "better than feared." Energy storage deployments beat consensus. The firm asserts investors should be more focused on AI projects, especially FSD. Truist views AI developments as far more important than auto deliveries for Tesla's long-term cash generation and stock performance.

Morgan Stanley

Andrew Percoco

Equal Weight

maintain

$425

2026-01-02

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Andrew Percoco

Price Target

$425

2026-01-02

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco notes that Tesla delivered 418,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, a slight 1% miss versus sell-side consensus but ahead of the firm's 402,000 estimate and buy-side expectations of roughly 400,000-410,000. Morgan Stanley maintains its 1.597M vehicles unit sales and 64 GWh ESS deployment estimate in 2026. The catalyst path for Tesla remains concentrated around its robotaxi business in the first half of 2026, although advancements in personal FSD - in many ways tied to a successful robotaxi roll-out - remain important drivers of future vehicle demand to support the firm's double-digit volume growth expectations in 2027 and beyond. Morgan Stanley has an Equal Weight rating on the stock with a price target of $425.

Baird

Outperform

maintain

$548

2025-12-30

Reason

Baird

Price Target

$548

2025-12-30

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Baird says Tesla shares are up 7% in the last month as attention turns to the company's potential catalysts in 2026. These include a broader robotaxi rollout, new product launches, and incremental details on Optimus commercialization, as well as non-Tesla items such as a SpaceX initial public offering, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Baird recommends owning the stock into the new year and continues to view the company as a core holding. It keeps an Outperform rating on Tesla with a $548 price target.

Canaccord

Buy

maintain

$482 -> $551

2025-12-23

Reason

Canaccord

Price Target

$482 -> $551

2025-12-23

maintain

Buy

Reason

Canaccord raised the firm's price target on Tesla to $551 from $482 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm reduced its Q4 delivery outlook for Tesla to 427,000 from 470,000, citing a sharper than anticipated deterioration in demand, with weakness broad-based across products and regions. However, even with the Q4 estimate cut, Canaccord sees "constructive developments beneath the surface" for Tesla. The recent share rally shows the market is looking through Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the end of U.S. electric vehicle subsidies, while a near-term drag on demand, is "forcing a healthier, more durable market to emerge." Tesla "still stands alone in the U.S. with a truly scaled, integrated EV franchise," according to Canaccord. Meanwhile, the analyst believes electric vehicle adoption is "rising quickly" in emerging markets such as Thailand, Vietnam, and Brazil. Tesla's robotaxi rollout is progressing, the firm adds. Canaccord says the company's underlying positives outweigh the near-term earnings reset.

About TSLA

Tesla, Inc. designs, develops, manufactures, sells and leases high-performance fully electric vehicles and energy generation and storage systems, and offers services related to its products. Its segments include automotive, and energy generation and storage. The automotive segment includes the design, development, manufacturing, sales and leasing of high-performance fully electric vehicles, and sales of automotive regulatory credits. It also includes sales of used vehicles, non-warranty maintenance services and collisions, part sales, paid supercharging, insurance services revenue and retail merchandise sales. The energy generation and storage segment include the design, manufacture, installation, sales and leasing of solar energy generation and energy storage products and related services and sales of solar energy systems incentives. Its consumer vehicles include the Model 3, Y, S, X and Cybertruck. Its lithium-ion battery energy storage products include Powerwall and Megapack.

About the author

Emily J. Thompson

Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.